Official Bracket Watch Thread

[AirForceVol74]

A&M is only game worth being ashamed of

I am not talking about being ashamed of losses...the original point was if the Vols win 17 games then we will be in bubble consideration...I disagree with that statement IMO because of games that could have been won (i.e. Georgia, USCe, TAMU) that was the point not losses to be ashamed about, we now have to win at least 18 regular games if not more. GBO!

 

[VolGee4]

Let's say we beat Arky and UF and lose the other 3 and we are 17-14 and then we go 1-1 in the SECT. We are 18-15. How many at-large teams in history have the following:
1. No wins over surefire NCAA team
2. 15 losses
3. SOS outside the Top 10

I'll save you the trouble: 0

Well, the committee will know if we have wins over NCAAT teams because they control who gets in. SOS outside the top 10 is a pretty strict parameter as I am guessing we will be top 25.

But, yes, two more wins would obviously help our cause. It's not automatic. I always said that 18 before the SECT will definitely get us in the conversation.

 

[volfan199]

Ok didn’t include the odds of wining all 3. So 32% is right. The second one isn’t correct. It would make it 40.5%

You are correct, there was a transcription error on the second formula, it should be:
(0.72 * 0.5 * 0.53) + //lose first, win next two
(0.28 * 0.5) + //win first two
(0.28 * 0.5 * 0.53) //win first, lose second, win third

Basically, I modified the wrong value on the third line. Anyways that does indeed give me 0.405. I'll fix the original post for posterity.

Also, the odds of winning all three aren't part of the calculation, I think you maybe actually omitted the third line? If you represent it visually with a markov chain (Markov chain - Wikipedia ) you have two terminal nodes, >= 2 and <2. Indeed from the second line Tennessee could move on to win all three, but that result is excluded from the chain as we have already reached the >= 2 terminal.

Anyways, that's probably enough math for one thread.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Well, the committee will know if we have wins over NCAAT teams because they control who gets in. SOS outside the top 10 is a pretty strict parameter as I am guessing we will be top 25.

But, yes, two more wins would obviously help our cause. It's not automatic. I always said that 18 before the SECT will definitely get us in the conversation.

The at large only teams with 15 losses have had Top 3 SOS plus multiple wins over teams in the upper half of the NCAA bracket. We wont have either under that scenario I laid out.

We need 18 regular season since it will eliminate 15th loss and it will fill big win void that's missing

 

[cardvolfan]

I really don't understand how Arkansas, at 4-9 in the conference, is still in the picture. That seems ludicrous to me, especially with the non-conference schedule.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I really don't understand how Arkansas, at 4-9 in the conference, is still in the picture. That seems ludicrous to me, especially with the non-conference schedule.

Arkansas will attempt to point to fact that they were a NCAAT team with Isaiah Joe and if he returns, they shouldn't be punished as harshly for the games that he missed. (Not sure if this argument will carry too much weight but if they do well down the stretch with Joe, it might)

One additional thing to take into account, you will see the reverse with us this year. There will be bubble teams (VCU) that will say "Tennessee was a NCAAT team with L. Turner but they've been a .500 team without him." If we are right on the bubble, that might be the one thing that keeps us out.

 

[BruinVol]

I really don't understand how Arkansas, at 4-9 in the conference, is still in the picture. That seems ludicrous to me, especially with the non-conference schedule.

Net

 

[PulaskiVolFan]

I think we need 3 of 5, in any way, shape or form. Gets us to 18 wins...will probably need a W or two in SECT, and think we've got a shot. Can't play like last two games in final minutes. We have the ability to make other teams play "ugly", which is a compliment to our D. We need to figure out how to play the first 10 minutes of games better on offense. Seems like last handful of games, I look up and we've got something like 12 points, with 10 minutes to play in the first half.

We have to turn the games into ugly games in order to win. It's been that way all year, it's our identity and if we are going to win any of the next five it's how it will have to play out.

 

[BruinVol]

We have to turn the games into ugly games in order to win. It's been that way all year, it's our identity and if we are going to win any of the next five it's how it will have to play out.

Why is a game that puts emphasis on defense and a methodical offense have to be called ugly?

I mean the last natty winner was ugly all year if that’s ugly

 

[bleedingTNorange]

While our intent was to schedule a Top 5 schedule, we are currently in the 50s in SOS. This number will probably end up in 30s. The only at large teams to get in with 15 losses were Vandy (#1 SOS) in 17 and Bama (#3 SOS) in 18. To be in the discussion, I think we need the 18th regular season win since that will give us our first win over guaranteed team in tourney.

I hope the committee will take into account the intent of our schedule but at the end of the day, the USC and AM losses plus 5/7 of our non-conference underperforming/imploding will relegate us to the NIT

Our projected SOS is Top 25, and what about Florida last year with 15 losses?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

But if you want to be selected over teams that are also on the bubble you need to beat a 12-13 Georgia team and a South Carolina team that lost to Stetson at home. "Bad Losses IMO" Also when you start comparing resumes with other bubble teams then a 2-7 Q1 record for the Vols isn't going to get it done. So to your original point that 17 wins will get us into consideration...I disagree...we have put ourselves in a very bad position with games that we should have won. WE at least have to win 18 in the regular season and that still may not be enough. GBO!

Maybe you missed this post, you are acting as if other bubble teams don’t have similar “bad losses” and also a similar Q1 and/or Q2 record...

We have 5 Q1 games upcoming to close out the year, we are a combined 6-10 in Q1&Q2 games so far this year.

Other bubble teams...

Oklahoma 9-10
Purdue 7-11
Georgetown 9-10
Indiana 6-9
—————————————
Arkansas 4-10
Stanford 4-8
Mississippi State 5-7
Alabama 6-10
North Carolina State 7-6
Minnesota 6-12

 

[cardvolfan]

Arkansas will attempt to point to fact that they were a NCAAT team with Isaiah Joe and if he returns, they shouldn't be punished as harshly for the games that he missed. (Not sure if this argument will carry too much weight but if they do well down the stretch with Joe, it might)

One additional thing to take into account, you will see the reverse with us this year. There will be bubble teams (VCU) that will say "Tennessee was a NCAAT team with L. Turner but they've been a .500 team without him." If we are right on the bubble, that might be the one thing that keeps us out.

So, they will say this where? Like in a courtroom?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Our projected SOS is Top 25, and what about Florida last year with 15 losses?

I know UF had 2 wins over teams with a Top 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. We have nothing remotely like that (yet). We have 3 chances in the next 2 weeks.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Let's say we beat Arky and UF and lose the other 3 and we are 17-14 and then we go 1-1 in the SECT. We are 18-15. How many at-large teams in history have the following:
1. No wins over surefire NCAA team
2. 15 losses
3. SOS outside the Top 10

I'll save you the trouble: 0

Well Florida is considered in at this point, so not sure why you’d throw them out?

Might wanna check out Florida’s resume from last year that got them a 10 seed...17-14(9-9), 9-14 Q1 & Q2 combined, SOS 20 and OOC SOS 44.

Tennessee at 17-14(9-9), 8-13 Q1 & Q2 combined, SOS Top 25 and OOC SOS 18.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

The at large only teams with 15 losses have had Top 3 SOS plus multiple wins over teams in the upper half of the NCAA bracket. We wont have either under that scenario I laid out.

We need 18 regular season since it will eliminate 15th loss and it will fill big win void that's missing

Florida last year doesn’t meet either of those requirements

 

[golfballs]

You are correct, there was a transcription error on the second formula, it should be:
(0.72 * 0.5 * 0.53) + //lose first, win next two
(0.28 * 0.5) + //win first two
(0.28 * 0.5 * 0.53) //win first, lose second, win third

Basically, I modified the wrong value on the third line. Anyways that does indeed give me 0.405. I'll fix the original post for posterity.

Also, the odds of winning all three aren't part of the calculation, I think you maybe actually omitted the third line? If you represent it visually with a markov chain (Markov chain - Wikipedia ) you have two terminal nodes, >= 2 and <2. Indeed from the second line Tennessee could move on to win all three, but that result is excluded from the chain as we have already reached the >= 2 terminal.

Anyways, that's probably enough math for one thread.

I didn’t omit the third line, I was looking at all the possible outcomes over the next 3 games and only considered outcomes that produced exactly two wins, not a minimum of two wins .

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Florida last year doesn’t meet either of those requirements

Florida had 2 wins over a 3 seed. Our best win is....

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I know UF had 2 wins over teams with a Top 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. We have nothing remotely like that (yet). We have 3 chances in the next 2 weeks.

Those were the only 2 wins over a NCAAT team(same team), they also had 2 Q3 losses, which UT has 1 of.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

So, they will say this where? Like in a courtroom?

Coach and ADs lobby committee members all the time. Coaches get on ESPN, CBS to give interviews, etc.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Florida had 2 wins over a 3 seed. Our best win is....

That’s not what your original criteria stated, they also had multiple Q3 losses where as we have 1, and with all that said they were firmly in the dance not even on the bubble...all that to simply say we will at least be in the convo, I’ve not once stated we would be a lock.

 

[PulaskiVolFan]

Why is a game that puts emphasis on defense and a methodical offense have to be called ugly?

I mean the last natty winner was ugly all year if that’s ugly

I'm a fan of ugly basketball, but it is an ugly style when compared to others.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Those were the only 2 wins over a NCAAT team(same team), they also had 2 Q3 losses, which UT has 1 of.

Not that it's fair, but UF as a multi-time national champion gets the benefit of the doubt that we wouldnt get. Probably didnt hurt having SEC AD on the selection committee either.

They also had an extra win the SECT that my scenario above didnt entail for us. If we go 2--1 in the SECT with a win over #3 seed, we'd have good chance to get in at 19-15

 

[PulaskiVolFan]

That’s not what your original criteria stated, they also had multiple Q3 losses where as we have 1, and with all that said they were firmly in the dance not even on the bubble...all that to simply say we will at least be in the convo, I’ve not once stated we would be a lock.

If we win 3 of our next 5 I think we'll be a lock. That's a big if though.

 

[cardvolfan]

Coach and ADs lobby committee members all the time. Coaches get on ESPN, CBS to give interviews, etc.

Oh, I gotcha. Thank you.

 

[BruinVol]

I think the schedule sets up perfectly for playing into the bracket.
the way ark is playing that’s a game we should win.

Auburn isn’t playing great either and Florida has under achieved.

if we can’t win those 3 we don’t deserve to make it anyway