Odds of Making Final Four Cut in Half

#2
#2
Our path to the Final Four doesn’t feel all that different than that of a 2-seed really. I’ve had some time to let the emotions simmer, and our draw in the first weekend feels the easiest of any 3-seed, so it’s just up to us to take care of business. Execute. Play good defense. Limit turnovers. And we’ll be there.

After that it gets difficult no matter where you play. I have a sneaky feeling either Villanova or Arizona will fall before we face them, so if the Vols just play to their capability we can do it.
 
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#4
#4
VolPack22 said:
Our odds of making it to the Final Four is roughly half of that compared to a 2 seed. On the bright side, 3 seeds only have one less championship than 2 seeds, and own a better Final Four winning % than even 1 seeds.

History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament
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This data does not say “we” have these odds. One and two seeds represent the best eight teams. If you believe we’re actually the fourth or fifth best team, then putting the number three (seed) next two our name doesn’t change our odds of winning. The path of 2’s and 3’s look very similar generally, but matchups are everything. I prefer this 3 over 2 in the West.
 
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#5
#5
I think cause/effect are in play. 2s have probably been much better teams in most of the situations. I doubt that it has much to do with the path for the 2s is considerably less challenging than it has been for the 3s.
 
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#6
#6
Stoerner Fumbles said:
This data does not say “we” have these odds. One and two seeds represent the best eight teams. If you believe we’re actually the fourth or fifth best team, then putting the number three (seed) next two our name doesn’t change our odds of winning. The path of 2’s and 3’s look very similar generally, but matchups are everything. I prefer this 3 over 2 in the West.
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Agreed. Our path to the Sweet 16 is very manageable. Villanova is great, but they are vulnerable just like any team. I think we’re playing better basketball than them right now, too. I’m not so sure Villanova will have it any easier than us with their matchup again Ohio State or Loyola. That’s a tough draw as far as 7/10 assignments go.
 
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#10
#10
I’m not saying I don’t think we have a great shot at making a run but that’s just what the probabilities are based on the history of the NCAAT since 1985. I personally like our draw to make a run. I would much rather play teams in Nova and Arizona that we have already played, than playing other teams blindly that we know less about.
 
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#11
#11
PEPPERJAX said:
I care more about how we are playing currently than I do being a 3 seed. We are playing we so much momentum and I like our chances against anyone.
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I like the fact that we are playing as a team. Take away one player, and we still have a team. We also have some redundancy, which we have seldom had in the past. We play up to our potential, and we can beat anyone.

That doesn't take away from the fact that we were criminally disrespected. Totally different discussion.

(Edit: Long story short: I agree.)
 
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#12
#12
VolPack22 said:
I’m not saying I don’t think we have a great shot at making a run but that’s just what the probabilities are based on the history of the NCAAT since 1985. I personally like our draw to make a run. I would much rather play teams in Nova and Arizona that we have already played, than playing other teams blindly that we know less about.
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The title of your thread and the first line of your post state that our odds of getting to the final four are cut in half because we are a 3, and not a 2 seed. I’m just pointing out that this is not correct. Our odds of getting to the final four are defined by our own specific variables.
 
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#13
#13
AllThingsTN said:
I’d rather be the Vols playing Michigan/Colorado St in the round of 32 than Kentucky playing Murray St. that’s for sure.
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Murray State is good, but I'd be even more worried about San Francisco. Easily one of the more underrated teams in the field.

As usual, the NCAA decided to pit 2 strong mid-majors against each other to protect the blue bloods. Seems to be a running theme every year.
 
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#14
#14
AllThingsTN said:
I’d rather be the Vols playing Michigan/Colorado St in the round of 32 than Kentucky playing Murray St. that’s for sure.
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I'll take Colorado St over Michigan. UM hasn't impressed, but they've got some athletes and talent. Our luck will have them having a breakout game vs the Vols. Go CSU.
 
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#15
#15
Stoerner Fumbles said:
The title of your thread and the first line of your post state that our odds of getting to the final four are cut in half because we are a 3, and not a 2 seed. I’m just pointing out that this is not correct. Our odds of getting to the final four are defined by our own specific variables.
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That’s what the article says are the chances for the seeds. Idk what else to tell you.
 
#16
#16
We got screwed, with that being said, I’d much rather have to face Michigan/CSU over Michigan State in the 2nd round.
 
#19
#19
TheMookieMonster said:
Our path to the Final Four doesn’t feel all that different than that of a 2-seed really. I’ve had some time to let the emotions simmer, and our draw in the first weekend feels the easiest of any 3-seed, so it’s just up to us to take care of business. Execute. Play good defense. Limit turnovers. And we’ll be there.

After that it gets difficult no matter where you play. I have a sneaky feeling either Villanova or Arizona will fall before we face them, so if the Vols just play to their capability we can do it.
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Ya, I'm angrier about the injustice than I am about where we actually ended up in the bracket.
 
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#22
#22
I'd say the odds of the 2 and 3 seed in the South region actually facing each other in the sweet 16 aren't real good. It's march madness and there are always some twists and turns.
 
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#24
#24
AllThingsTN said:
I’d rather be the Vols playing Michigan/Colorado St in the round of 32 than Kentucky playing Murray St. that’s for sure.
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I recall listening to the Ky/ Austin Peay game in 1973 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. Ky won 106-100 in 2OTs or something like that. Ky ended up in the Final Four. Difference in that game & this game vs Murray is Austin Peay had the best player on the floor, Fly Williams. Ky will have the best 3-4 players. Ky will beat them as bad as they want.

And if Tennessee can’t get to the sweet 16, shame on them.
 
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#25
#25
wmcovol said:
I recall listening to the Ky/ Austin Peay game in 1973 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. Ky won 106-100 in 2OTs or something like that. Ky ended up in the Final Four. Difference in that game & this game vs Murray is Austin Peay had the best player on the floor, Fly Williams. Ky will have the best 3-4 players. Ky will beat them as bad as they want.

And if Tennessee can’t get to the sweet 16, shame on them.
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I think it’s going to be a close game. Murray state has a very good TEAM that also has talent/experience (they’re a mid-major 7 seed for a reason). Who knows, Kentucky could end up blowing them out, but I’m not betting on it.
 
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