Odds of Making Final Four Cut in Half

[VolPack22]

Those are betting odds, which can fluctuate greatly from service to service. Your image says +401 for us to get to the Final Four. Draft Kings has Tennessee at +330 to get there, Fan Duel is at +500, Bet MGM is at +550, and I saw another at +600.

 

[wmcovol]

I think it’s going to be a close game. Murray state has a very good TEAM that also has talent/experience (they’re a mid-major 7 seed for a reason). Who knows, Kentucky could end up blowing them out, but I’m not betting on it.

Ok. Play Murray then. You’ll get a lot of points

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Those are betting odds, which can fluctuate greatly from service to service. Your image says +401 for us to get to the Final Four. Draft Kings has Tennessee at +330 to get there, Fan Duel is at +500, Bet MGM is at +550, and I saw another at +600.

I’m not sure how I can help you. I tried to explain that our individual odds are distinct from an average of past three seeds. You asked for the current odds. Outside of betting odds, there are probabilities presented as fractions or percentages which will also vary from one prognosticator to the next. If you’d like to see any of those, you’re a mere search away.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Those are betting odds, which can fluctuate greatly from service to service. Your image says +401 for us to get to the Final Four. Draft Kings has Tennessee at +330 to get there, Fan Duel is at +500, Bet MGM is at +550, and I saw another at +600.

As someone already commented our current odds of making the final four are about one in five, or 20%. The odds of us winning the final are about 5%.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Those are betting odds, which can fluctuate greatly from service to service. Your image says +401 for us to get to the Final Four. Draft Kings has Tennessee at +330 to get there, Fan Duel is at +500, Bet MGM is at +550, and I saw another at +600.

*

 

[VolPack22]

I’m not sure how I can help you. I tried to explain that our individual odds are distinct from an average of past three seeds. You asked for the current odds. Outside of betting odds, there are probabilities presented as fractions or percentages which will also vary from one prognosticator to the next. If you’d like to see any of those, you’re a mere search away.

There have been 36 NCAAT since 1985. That’s 144 total 3 seeds since then. 17 have made the Final Four. 17/144 = 11.8%. You can go off betting odds if that’s what you would like to use but the 11.8% is what it is. I’m using historical data within the tournament as opposed to betting odds. Anyone can set odds, but the fact is 17 three seeds have made the Final Four in the modern NCAAT.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

There have been 36 NCAAT since 1985. That’s 144 total 3 seeds since then. 17 have made the Final Four. 17/144 = 11.8%. You can go off betting odds if that’s what you would like to use but the 11.8% is what it is. I’m using historical data within the tournament as opposed to betting odds. Anyone can set odds, but the fact is 17 three seeds have made the Final Four in the modern NCAAT.

I’m only going to explain this one more time. The typical three seed falls between the 8th and 12th best teams in the tournament. That reality combined with the quality of their specific draw defines the odds of their success. What does NOT define their fate is the presence of a number three by their name. The path of a three is barely different from a 2 in difficulty. In fact the 2 must play the 3 at 16. The drop between 3 and 4 is significant, and 4’s have Avery hard road. This board, the AP, coaches etc all agree that we’re between the 5th and 8th best team in the country. We are better than a 3 seed whether they call us one or not. Those odds you call “betting odds” are in fact a market of investors who define those odds. That market is in fact very accurate in predicting outcomes. More importantly those odds are based in n the matchups between actual teams, and not an arbitrary number 3.

 

[VolPack22]

I’m only going to explain this one more time. The typical three seed falls between the 8th and 12th best teams in the tournament. That reality combined with the quality of their specific draw defines the odds of their success. What does NOT define their fate is the presence of a number three by their name. The path of a three is barely different from a 2 in difficulty. In fact the 2 must play the 3 at 16. The drop between 3 and 4 is significant, and 4’s have Avery hard road. This board, the AP, coaches etc all agree that we’re between the 5th and 8th best team in the country. We are better than a 3 seed whether they call us one or not. Those odds you call “betting odds” are in fact a market of investors who define those odds. That market is in fact very accurate in predicting outcomes. More importantly those odds are based in n the matchups between actual teams, and not an arbitrary number 3.

We’re just going to have to disagree and go our separate ways on this one. You’re talking about something completely different than I’m talking about. I never once mentioned betting odds in my original post, simply the history and probability of each seed advancing in the modern NCAAT.

 

[VOLnFLA]

I’m not saying I don’t think we have a great shot at making a run but that’s just what the probabilities are based on the history of the NCAAT since 1985. I personally like our draw to make a run. I would much rather play teams in Nova and Arizona that we have already played, than playing other teams blindly that we know less about.

A 3 seed has never won it tho. Where do they get the percentages from?

 

[VolPack22]

A 3 seed has never won it tho. Where do they get the percentages from?

3 seeds have won 4 times since 1985 (36 tournaments). Each seed has had 144 (36 x 4) total teams in those 36 tournaments. So you just take whatever number of teams that are a particular seed that made it into a certain round and divide it by 144. 17 (17/144 = 11.8%) three seeds have made the Final Four. 11 (11/144 = 7.6%) have made the National Championship. And 4 (4/144 = 2.8%) have won the whole thing.

 

[VOLnFLA]

3 seeds have won 4 times since 1985 (36 tournaments). Each seed has had 144 (36 x 4) total teams in those 36 tournaments. So you just take whatever number of teams that are a particular seed that made it into a certain round and divide it by 144. 17 (17/144 = 11.8%) three seeds have made the Final Four. 11 (11/144 = 7.6%) have made the National Championship. And 4 (4/144 = 2.8%) have won the whole thing.

Damn I looked that **** up on Google and they said a 3 seed has never won. My bad

 

[VolPack22]

Damn I looked that **** up on Google and they said a 3 seed has never won. My bad

1989 Michigan
2003 Syracuse
2006 Florida
2011 UConn

 

[VOLnFLA]

1989 Michigan
2003 Syracuse
2006 Florida
2011 UConn

Thanks. Google is trash can juice. Now they starting to sensor the wrong stuff lol

 

[VolPack22]

Thanks. Google is trash can juice. Now they starting to sensor the wrong stuff lol

Lol the only reason I knew was because 2003 was Carmelo’s Syracuse team. I remembered the 2006 Florida team and the magical 2011 UConn team. Only one I didn’t know was the 1989 Michigan team. They actually beat 3 seed Seton Hall by 1 point in OT.

 

[OrangeInKy]

I remember an epic choke job as a 2 seed, in the round of 32, in 2006 They almost lost round 1. Not a huge difference as far as the path.

 

[feathersax]

I recall listening to the Ky/ Austin Peay game in 1973 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. Ky won 106-100 in 2OTs or something like that. Ky ended up in the Final Four. Difference in that game & this game vs Murray is Austin Peay had the best player on the floor, Fly Williams. Ky will have the best 3-4 players. Ky will beat them as bad as they want.

And if Tennessee can’t get to the sweet 16, shame on them.

Fly Williams from "Let's Go Peay". Street ball phenom.

 

[walkenvol]

I’m only going to explain this one more time. The typical three seed falls between the 8th and 12th best teams in the tournament. That reality combined with the quality of their specific draw defines the odds of their success. What does NOT define their fate is the presence of a number three by their name. The path of a three is barely different from a 2 in difficulty. In fact the 2 must play the 3 at 16. The drop between 3 and 4 is significant, and 4’s have Avery hard road. This board, the AP, coaches etc all agree that we’re between the 5th and 8th best team in the country. We are better than a 3 seed whether they call us one or not. Those odds you call “betting odds” are in fact a market of investors who define those odds. That market is in fact very accurate in predicting outcomes. More importantly those odds are based in n the matchups between actual teams, and not an arbitrary number 3.

3 seeds are 9-13 ranked teams

 

[Houstonvol1]

But that’s not a path statistic it’s a team statistic. The path for 2’s and 3’s are almost the same. The statistic simply says that 2 seeded teams are generally better than 3 seeded teams. If TN is really a 2 seed in performance then the statistic won’t apply to them. TN’s odds have not been cut in half because they are performing better than the 3 seeds.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

But that’s not a path statistic it’s a team statistic. The path for 2’s and 3’s are almost the same. The statistic simply says that 2 seeded teams are generally better than 3 seeded teams. If TN is really a 2 seed in performance then the statistic won’t apply to them. TN’s odds have not been cut in half because they are performing better than the 3 seeds.

Thank you. It doesn’t seem that hard to follow, but apparently it is.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

3 seeds are 9-13 ranked teams

I’m not talking about “rank”. I’m talking about the historical quality of the seed. We aren’t the first fifth best team to be put in a 3 slot. Statistically the quality of the team is 8-12. Not worth splitting hairs probably, but it’s a different point than rank.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I recall listening to the Ky/ Austin Peay game in 1973 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. Ky won 106-100 in 2OTs or something like that. Ky ended up in the Final Four. Difference in that game & this game vs Murray is Austin Peay had the best player on the floor, Fly Williams. Ky will have the best 3-4 players. Ky will beat them as bad as they want.

And if Tennessee can’t get to the sweet 16, shame on them.

You’ve got a great memory. Memphis lost to UCLA in the final that year with future head coach Larry Finch on the team.

 

[Houstonvol1]

As was mentioned 4 seeds have a path issue besides generally being lesser teams. They have to play 1’s earlier. Since 2’s play 3’s it doesn’t matter much. Playing a 14 seed instead of a 15 seed in the first round shouldn’t matter.

 

[wmcovol]

You’ve got a great memory. Memphis lost to UCLA in the final that year with future head coach Larry Finch on the team.

Right Memphis also had the one and only Dr. K, Larry Kenon, long time San Antonio Spur with George Gervin.

 

[VolPack22]

But that’s not a path statistic it’s a team statistic. The path for 2’s and 3’s are almost the same. The statistic simply says that 2 seeded teams are generally better than 3 seeded teams. If TN is really a 2 seed in performance then the statistic won’t apply to them. TN’s odds have not been cut in half because they are performing better than the 3 seeds.

It doesn’t matter how we are performing. We are a 3 seed. It is what is.

 

[jackaro]

You cannot use statistics from past tournaments to give odds on the current tournament. The statistics are not useless, they are fun to look at and talk about but actual results depend on too many factors that cannot be predicted, such as: match ups, which team is hot, injuries and if the bank transfer from Kentucky and Duke boosters to the referees have cleared.