As someone who has lived through two NCAA episodes at Louisville, let me share a few things.
Louisville's first scandal involved women being brought into the basketball dorm to impress recruits, with said women doing everything from hanging out with the players to stripping for them to having sex with them -- all paid for (supposedly) by an assistant coach (a graduate assistant, I think). The head coach (Rick Pitino) claimed from the beginning that he knew nothing about it (and still does). The assistant coach was already gone from the school.
The school self-imposed a post-season ban (in a year where the team had a legitimate shot at a Final Four). They did not fire the coach, as the evidence seemed to show that he, indeed, was unaware. Some of the players involved at the time were dis-associated from the school (told not to come around).
What did the NCAA do? It vacated any wins from 2011 to 2015 in which any of the accused players played. It made the school give back the money it earned from the NCAA tournament in those years. AND, it vacated the national championship Louisville won in 2013, and made the school take the banner down.
Then, a few years ago, Louisville was mentioned by name in the FBI investigation looking into cheating. No one at the school was arrested, but it was pretty clear that Pitino was alleged to have been involved. (He denied that, as well, and said that the agents were trying to implicate him to make a deal.)
The school fired Pitino, and most of the assistants. When the AD stood up for Pitino, they fired him too. They did some other things to "clean house."
And what did the NCAA do? They sent a Notice of Allegations that included a Level 1 violation, three level 2 violations, and said that Pitino failed to "promote an atmospher of compliance." At this point, the school and the NCAA are going back and forth, but there is some suspicion that we will get a substantial penalty, including a post-season ban.
Why am I sharing all of this? Because at the same time Louisville was doing all it could to self-impose, take action, and so on, the University of North Carolina (University of No Classes) was caught in a very large academic scandal. But instead of working with the NCAA, they fought and fought and fought, and in the end, they won. The NCAA dropped the case, saying it was "outside of their jurisdiction."
I have no use for the NCAA. They are inconsistent, sometimes vindictive, and appear to be influenced by the school's reputation or the amount of money the school generates for them.
So, I will tell you two things I think: (1) If there was that much paying of players, by the head coach and the other coaches, Tennessee is going to be in a heap of trouble, as the NCAA will want to make an example of them. (2) BUT, do not ever think you can figure out what the NCAA is going to do based on either precedent or logic. What I said in (1) could be completely flipped around, just because you can never tell what they are going to do.
But if I were a betting person, and there actually are 51 violations, I would bet a good chunk of money on Tennessee getting hammered by the NCAA.