Again, what I suspect they are going to do, is what is already done with doctors and hospitals. Doctors are recruited to move places and set up practices by hospitals. There are regulations which prohibit hospitals from paying doctors more than "fair market value" or giving incentives for a doctor to move to an area which are "commercially unreasonable", etc. In the context of doctors and hospitals, what the government does not want, are hospitals buying up all the doctors to insure that they get all the patients and that their competitors get none. The government wants doctors spread out throughout the country so that people all over the country have access to health care. So what they do is they look at the contracts doctors enter into with hospitals and analyze whether it makes business sense on it's face. If the contract is a huge money loser for the hospital on it's face, the government will say "well, the reason you are willing to lose all that money on the doctor's salary or on benefits etc. is to insure that you get all the referrals or that your doctor doesn't go to the competition".
I suspect they'll follow a similar model which says, "gee Collective, you are paying Joe High School 2 million dollars for his NIL and he's never caught a pass in D-1? That's commercially unreasonable/not fair market value, what you are really paying for is for this kid to play for the university you say you aren't associated with, not for the value of his name, image and likeness". This argument will be considerably strengthened if there are clauses in the contract which require the kid to eat lunch every day and sign autographs at the Tuscaloosa deli, etc., something which makes it practically impossible for him to play anywhere other than Alabama. That's where I think they are going with this. I could be wrong but that's a legal framework that has held up in court for decades, that will accomplish their ends of clamping down on blatant pay for play. The Supreme Court opinion didn't rule out something like that, again the Supreme Court has seen that legal framework before and given it the thumbs up.