My thoughts on Napier. (Spoiler, not all negative)

[Lawrence Wright]

That was the oddity of this game, and the UF roster as a whole this year...Not having a top class speedster or two on the outside is really weird.

We gave the #1 jersey to a 3* transfer WR from Arizona State, and he’s without question our most talented wideout.

 

[GVF]

Understand what you’re saying, but I completely disagree with your Georgia comment. If you have 4th and short against Georgia’s D with clearly inferior talent you have to be going for it. The whole gameplan should be trying to steal possessions from them and the perfect way to do that is by going for it. The more you punt to Georgia the harder it is to beat them. It’s already hard to get first downs on them so you have to be more willing to use 4 plays to get 10 yards, imo

In certain situations you do have to go for it. But, not the whole game. And not from your own 40 or less half the time. you have to play field position and manufacture when you do go for it.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Here's my math.
Down by 17.
Score touchdown. Now down by 11.

3 things can happen after the touchdown:

1. Kick extra point: Down by 10. Needed to Tie (FG+TD+1) Needed to win: (FG+TD+2)
2. Two point conversion. Down by nine. Needed to Tie (FG+TD) Needed to win: (FG+TD+1)
3. Miss, still down by 11. Needed to Tie (TD+2+FG) Needed to win: (TD+1+TD)

Option number 3 happened, which forced him to have to go to a second two point conversion on the next touchdown. Missing the second 2 point conversion put him in a spot where in that last drive a TD was the only option. If he'd just kicked the extra points, he would have had a shot at a field goal for overtime on the 3rd possession. Because he missed on that first conversion, he really put himself in a jam.

And if he had made that first 2 point conversion, things would have been way harder for Tennessee. It was ballsy, but I really think it was in his best interest to kick when down by 11.

It's a very debatable topic. I'm just glad when it came down to the wire, he needed the end zone with no time outs, rather than a long FG.

When he went for two, I decoded it as he was trying to create a way to win the game in regulation, thinking he didn't like his chances in OT. I was fine with that. He's the coach. The only thing I didn't get was why he did it on the FIRST TD. It was a three possession game before that score no matter his choice. And even after the score, he knew he needed another TD to win. As a coach, I would not have wanted to unnecessarily put the extra pressure on my team that the failed PAT created (gotta have two more TDs). Even if the scenario I described above was his thinking, he could/should have waited until the second score to attempt the 2-pointer.

The only thing I can think of is that it was the same mentality he had regarding the 4th down attempts. He was thinking the value of the energy and momentum that converting would have created was worth the risk, because I believe you are correct. Had they converted that 2-pointer, it would have changed the complexion of the game significantly.

 

[GVF]

We gave the #1 jersey to a 3* transfer WR from Arizona State, and he’s without question our most talented wideout.

So strange. I can't remeber the last time a UF roster was without someone who could walk away from the field after turning the corner.

 

[SayNoToJorts]

Florida has 18 4-star commits on 247 for this year. Did I miss something? Why are people saying he can’t recruit?

 

[GVF]

When he went for two, I decoded it as he was trying to create a way to win the game in regulation, thinking he didn't like his chances in OT. I was fine with that. He's the coach. The only thing I didn't get was why he did it on the FIRST TD. It was a three possession game before that score no matter his choice. And even after the score, he knew he needed another TD to win. As a coach, I would not have wanted to unnecessarily put the extra pressure on my team that the failed PAT created (gotta have two more TDs). Even if the scenario I described above was his thinking, he could/should have waited until the second score to attempt the 2-pointer.

There's also an away game strategy with this UF roster, and a home game strategy. Florida was on the road in a very loud stadium against a qucikly rising UT reincarnation. THey had nothing to lose and would get extra credit for playing it remotely close in final score.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

So strange. I can't remeber the last time a UF roster was without someone who could walk away from the field after turning the corner.

Hopefully Mizell is that guy in the next 2-3 years.

Until then, Brandon James and Percy Harvin ain’t walking through that door.

 

[GVF]

Hopefully Mizell is that guy in the next 2-3 years

He's a definite possibility.

 

[volforlife15]

In certain situations you do have to go for it. But, not the whole game. And not from your own 40 or less half the time. you have to play field position and manufacture when you do go for it.

Agree not all the time, but if you’re consistently getting 4th and shorts (which they were) you should go. All win probability metrics will tell you that where you are on the field doesn’t matter a whole lot. 4th and 1 on your own 40 vs 4th and 1 on their 40 are going to lead to the same mathematical conclusion, which is go for it. Field position is an antiquated results oriented approach. Yes, you COULD pin them inside their 10, which is great. But you also COULD convert on 4th and continue your drive. I’d rather risk going for it and keeping the ball, which is why I wish UT would go for it more. It’s already hard to stop us normally, just imagine getting an extra play to gain the 10 yards

 

[ptcarter]

When he went for two, I decoded it as he was trying to create a way to win the game in regulation, thinking he didn't like his chances in OT. I was fine with that. He's the coach. The only thing I didn't get was why he did it on the FIRST TD. It was a three possession game before that score no matter his choice. And even after the score, he knew he needed another TD to win. As a coach, I would not have wanted to unnecessarily put the extra pressure on my team that the failed PAT created (gotta have two more TDs). Even if the scenario I described above was his thinking, he could/should have waited until the second score to attempt the 2-pointer.

The only thing I can think of is that it was the same mentality he had regarding the 4th down attempts. He was thinking the value of the energy and momentum that converting would have created was worth the risk, because I believe you are correct. Had they converted that 2-pointer, it would have changed the complexion of the game significantly.

The success rate of Florida on 4th down was absolutely scary. I was at the game and just watched the replay last night. I didn't realize how close that 2 point conversion was. A Florida player tipped the ball or it would have been caught. Think about that, it was one of their guys that deflected the ball, not someone in an orange jersey. I think we had a little luck on that one.

 

[GVF]

Agree not all the time, but if you’re consistently getting 4th and shorts (which they were) you should go. All win probability metrics will tell you that where you are on the field doesn’t matter a whole lot. 4th and 1 on your own 40 vs 4th and 1 on their 40 are going to lead to the same mathematical conclusion, which is go for it. Field position is an antiquated results oriented approach. Yes, you COULD pin them inside their 10, which is great. But you also COULD convert on 4th and continue your drive. I’d rather risk going for it and keeping the ball, which is why I wish UT would go for it more. It’s already hard to stop us normally, just imagine getting an extra play to gain the 10 yards

I don't disagree. It's an in game feel and should always be judged on how you are handling the opponent D. In Saturday's case, Napier was more than justified to keep going for it.

 

[vegasvolfan]

OK, morning after now. UF fans, so used to winning this game didn't. Ending was similar to lots of VOL heartbreak over the years and BVS kicked in full bore the last minute.
So I put myself in the shoes of a UF fan for a moment. Lot's to be upset about with him.

First, the math didn't really add up for the attempted 2 point conversions. The miss on the first cemented that they had to do it on the second. Those decisions will be talked about around the Florida coffee pots at work on Monday. Losing his cool and giving UT first and goal at the one inch line wasn't a good look either.

On the other hand... I think he knew he was outnumbered on this game. We saw a game where Florida only punted once (and UT none), and that punt pinned Tennessee on the one yard line. He rolled the dice on 3rd and 4th down, realizing Tennessee had some holes in their short yardage defense. And his success rate for that was phenomenal. If on any one of those, they don't convert, they would be in a deep deep hole. So what I saw in him - a strong will to win, and a strong will to roll the dice and go for more points and yardage. I would say he never really took his foot off the gas, and he had a pretty good offensive scheme that was well executed. Over 600 yards, and I would say, yes Tennessee had some defensive busts, but give Florida some credit for those busts. (Just like Florida's defense left some of Tennessee's receivers wide open, not just bad players making bad plays, but a coordinator in the booth spotting a vulnerability and exploiting it).

I see this guy as maybe not the brightest coach, but in a lot of ways, a warrior and a competitor. I think of Butch Jones kicking a field goal on 4th and one against Oklahoma - a game that went into overtime and losing. Score there and there wouldn't have been an overtime. Going for it on 4th down sends a strong message to the team that you have confidence in them and it puts the game on the backs of the players. Napier seems like the type of guy that would have scored on that night Tennessee lost to OU. I like his moxy. For those that say they want to keep playing against him for 20 years - I think you are fooling yourself.

Napier isn't a stupid guy. He talks like Pruitt, but he's smart. He's just aggressive, and that both hurts and helps people a lot of times. Personally, I think we should have kicked a 47 yard field goal or been more aggressive in our play calling when we turned the ball over. I would have liked to have had Napier's mentality in that situation.

 

[Mccage]

Regarding Napier, he understood from the day he hit campus that the talent on the roster is not up to Florida standards, especially on defense. So knowing that, his decision-making on 4th downs and xp conversions, I think he’s just trying to score as many points as possible and keep his offense on the field as much as possible to help and protect the defense. The defense couldn’t stop Utah in the second half, they couldn’t stop USF, they damn sure weren’t stoping Tennessee. The only game they’ve showed a pulse in was KY, and that’s the game where AR looked like he was point-shaving or something.

This is a house money season for Napier. I want to see competitive games with guys playing their asses off until the final whistle. We most certainly saw that vs TN. I want him to maintain this recruiting class plus add a few more. He’s already top ten and in play for several other big time guys.

Once he has a typical Florida, SEC-like roster, his in-game decisions will reflect that. 4 games into his UF tenure, I’m pleased with the structure he has put in place. Keep in mind, Mullen had a mindset that he could just out-scheme and out-coach people, even if he had inferior talent. That’s a Miss State mindset, not a Florida mindset. Napier is going to fix that. Has anyone ever seen a Florida defense, that aside from one player (Ventrell Miller), strikes fear into nobody. Maybe a few DB’s that can play, but otherwise, nothing. Florida should be two-deep at every position with DUDES.

He already has a signature win vs Utah, he took a undermanned team into a nutty home field advantage for TN, against Tennessee’s best team in at least 6 years, maybe their best team in the last 15+ years, and he damn near won the game. Led for much of the first half and had a chance for a Hail Mary for the win.

I like Billy Napier and hope he’s at Florida for 15 years. We need that as a program.

I agree with most of what your saying but if we hadn't took our foot off the gas the chance to win goes way down.

 

[MRORANGEPANTS]

I would love to just hear a real explanation for how the “math” didn’t “add up” on the 2 point conversion. Math, which I assume you mean win probability, absolutely added up

The problem with the chart is that it only accounts for win probability in regulation. Ignore the chart and get the game into overtime and the win probability dramatically increases.

 

[FranklinVFL]

He showed the rest of the league to always go for 4th down vs. us...gave the blueprint....never punt. I will say we will be facing a lot more 4th down attempts for the rest of the season.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

He showed the rest of the league to always go for 4th down vs. us...gave the blueprint....never punt. I will say we will be facing a lot more 4th down attempts for the rest of the season.

I was surprised at how much zone UT’s secondary played. It allowed AR to get into a rhythm.

Our receivers aren’t good enough to beat man coverage consistently.

 

[99gator]

Let’s just say the recruiting services missed on a few guys.

For example we’ve got a so-called Top 40 5* LB in Derek Wingo and he’s barely seen the field on special teams, let alone at LB.

Like some of the highly rated basketball recruits Florida has landed in recent years. You think you got a player but then learn there was a reason you were able to land him.

 

[orangeblood]

Hubris

 

[Stephen69]

LOL @ "sunrise on Nov 5" ... that is Saturday gayyturrd.

Florduh gayturrds lookin' at 4-5 when the sun rises on 11/6.

Ah….. ya got me. Good for you!! Yeah, either 4-5 or 5-4 sounds about right, and that’s ok. Just remember The Gators have two national titles this century, the Vols have none. 3 SEC titles( 7 CG appearances), the Vols have none( 3 CG appearances). Your team has a long way to go before you match us. Remember that before you puff your chest out, son.

 

[StarRaider]

Ah….. ya got me. Good for you!! Yeah, either 4-5 or 5-4 sounds about right, and that’s ok. Just remember The Gators have two national titles this century, the Vols have none. 3 SEC titles( 7 CG appearances), the Vols have none( 3 CG appearances). Your team has a long way to go before you match us. Remember that before you puff your chest out, son.

lol another noobie gayyyturddd troll triggered lol .... hey little girl what are you like 14? lol Congrats on your 2-2 record and moral victories

 

[Stephen69]

Moral victory??? . Your team is 5-18 against the Gators this century. But hey, I’ll be pulling for the Vols this weekend to run LSU out of the building! Good luck!!