My thoughts on Napier. (Spoiler, not all negative)

#76
#76
Lawrence Wright said:
Let’s just say the recruiting services missed on a few guys.

For example we’ve got a so-called Top 40 5* LB in Derek Wingo and he’s barely seen the field on special teams, let alone at LB.
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Recruiting rankings are a bad tool for evaluating roster talent. It’s a snapshot in time guesstimate and player development, or lack thereof, is completely ignored. It’s part of the equation but you certainly can’t properly evaluate a roster simply based on the number of stars someone had 1-4 years prior.
 
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#77
#77
Stephen69 said:
Both of the Gator loses could have been wins if
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Move past denial, acceptance is the key. Or at least blame the refs like we do.
Jaws said:
talent on the roster is not up to Florida standards,
This is a house money season for Napier.
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Sounds like a fancy way of saying 'Year Zero' to me.
99gator said:
The problem with that, among other things, is that kids have to have time to drink milk and eat their Flinstones vitamins before they can make an impact.

So, next year's Florida team I expect to feature a lot of children. And you don't win with kids.

It's going to take until 2024 (at the earliest) before Florida will have to be taken seriously by good teams.
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So you'll be talking about kids on a plane ride for the1st time and mental reps when you come back to Neyland?
Lawrence Wright said:
Let’s just say the recruiting services missed on a few guys.

For example we’ve got a so-called Top 40 5* LB in Derek Wingo and he’s barely seen the field on special teams, let alone at LB.
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May you get the same amount of production out of Wingo as we got out of JJ Peterson.
Do you really want to start about missing on recruits with us?

All kidding aside, you guys are usually class acts. If it weren't for the fact you're all filthy gators,I might be willing to believe you're wholesome people.

It isn't anywhere near time for you guys to panic that you've landed a Butch 2.0 (fingers crossed, I hope you did), but there are some warning signs.
Unless you guys have the kind of top to bottom dysfunction throughout your entire AD like we've dealt with at UT, then unfortunately you guys aren't in danger of falling into any long term mire.

Even if we pull off 10-2 I struggle to see us being heavily favored again in Gainesville next year given the talent we're going to graduate.
 
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#78
#78
Lawrence Wright said:
Let’s just say the recruiting services missed on a few guys.

For example we’ve got a so-called Top 40 5* LB in Derek Wingo and he’s barely seen the field on special teams, let alone at LB.
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Yea, the services and coaches miss some recruit evaluations but that applies to everyone. Our highest ranked recruit from 3 years back was a LB who contributed nothing and is now out of school and football. Your one 5* not meeting expectations doesn’t change the narrative that your guys are complaining about a lack of talent yet you’ve already lost to Kentucky & UT who both have less talent than Florida. Your entire offense is ranked higher than the guys who started for UT. Before the wheels came off last season, Mullen was winning 10 games a year and challenging for the East. That roster isn’t “bad” by any means
 
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#79
#79
walkenvol said:
Yea, the services and coaches miss some recruit evaluations but that applies to everyone. Our highest ranked recruit from 3 years back was a LB who contributed nothing and is now out of school and football. Your one 5* not meeting expectations doesn’t change the narrative that your guys are complaining about a lack of talent yet you’ve already lost to Kentucky & UT who both have less talent than Florida. Your entire offense is ranked higher than the guys who started for UT.
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Your entire post makes my point. Sometimes recruiting services get it wrong.

Kadarius Toney was a 3* recruit and we currently don’t have anyone on the same planet as him talent-wise on offense.

Our 5* WR transfer Justin Shorter would struggle to see the field at UT with Tillman, Hyatt and McCoy in front of him. Yet he’s our only deep threat and he’s slower and less talented than your top 3 wideouts.
 
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#80
#80
ptcarter said:
Understand what you are saying. Lots of scenarios, however if you are looking just at math and not scenarios, why not go for 2 every time? Seems both concepts play a role in the decisions.
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That’s actually a great question and I don’t have the exact mathematical reason. I would be willing to bet though that most pure analytics people would say it’s not a horrible option. Same with going for it on 4th which is a whole different conversation. I will say this if I had someone like Mahomes or Allen i would seriously consider going for 2 every time. They’re too good to be stopped from 3 yards out more often than not
 
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#82
#82
Jaws said:
Regarding Napier, he understood from the day he hit campus that the talent on the roster is not up to Florida standards, especially on defense. So knowing that, his decision-making on 4th downs and xp conversions, I think he’s just trying to score as many points as possible and keep his offense on the field as much as possible to help and protect the defense. The defense couldn’t stop Utah in the second half, they couldn’t stop USF, they damn sure weren’t stoping Tennessee. The only game they’ve showed a pulse in was KY, and that’s the game where AR looked like he was point-shaving or something.

This is a house money season for Napier. I want to see competitive games with guys playing their asses off until the final whistle. We most certainly saw that vs TN. I want him to maintain this recruiting class plus add a few more. He’s already top ten and in play for several other big time guys.

Once he has a typical Florida, SEC-like roster, his in-game decisions will reflect that. 4 games into his UF tenure, I’m pleased with the structure he has put in place. Keep in mind, Mullen had a mindset that he could just out-scheme and out-coach people, even if he had inferior talent. That’s a Miss State mindset, not a Florida mindset. Napier is going to fix that. Has anyone ever seen a Florida defense, that aside from one player (Ventrell Miller), strikes fear into nobody. Maybe a few DB’s that can play, but otherwise, nothing. Florida should be two-deep at every position with DUDES.

He already has a signature win vs Utah, he took a undermanned team into a nutty home field advantage for TN, against Tennessee’s best team in at least 6 years, maybe their best team in the last 15+ years, and he damn near won the game. Led for much of the first half and had a chance for a Hail Mary for the win.

I like Billy Napier and hope he’s at Florida for 15 years. We need that as a program.
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2014-2016 Vols were better overall from a personnel stand point (I think this team is better offensively) but this team is better coached than those Butch Jones team.

I wouldn't call this team very good just because our defense is not very talented and is pretty weak from an SEC standpoint. It will stop some offenses like Missouri, South Carolina, and Vandy but will struggle with Alabama and Georgia.
 
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#83
#83
ETV said:
If Napier goes for 4th down that much against a superior defense, i.e. Georgia, he’s going to have his arse handed to him.
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I drop this in the situational football thing. Tennessee's biggest strength is running up yards and scoring almost at will. So since Florida was double digit underdogs in his first season he had nothing to lose but to gamble multiple times on 4th down. Georgia on the other hand has way more conventional game plan offensively and Florida will likely play more field position punting when necessary. 2 reasons Georgia is way more capable of stopping them than us and every coach in America still wants to let Stetson Bennett be forced to move the ball long fields rather than short. Hendon Hooker has shown long field or short he can at worst flip field and usually walks off with points on board or incoming for fg.
 
#84
#84
volforlife15 said:
That’s actually a great question and I don’t have the exact mathematical reason. I would be willing to bet though that most pure analytics people would say it’s not a horrible option. Same with going for it on 4th which is a whole different conversation. I will say this if I had someone like Mahomes or Allen i would seriously consider going for 2 every time. They’re too good to be stopped from 3 yards out more often than not
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Florida showed that you can live by it and die by it. I'm talking more about 4th downs rather than 2 pt conversions. We stop them on any one of them and the game wouldn't have had near the drama it did at the end. I was at the game and just did watch the CBS replay. Very frustrating how many times we *almost* got the ball turned over on downs, but instead (I think) a couple of them ended up being touchdowns on 4th down.
 
#85
#85
ptcarter said:
Florida showed that you can live by it and die by it. I'm talking more about 4th downs rather than 2 pt conversions. We stop them on any one of them and the game wouldn't have had near the drama it did at the end. I was at the game and just did watch the CBS replay. Very frustrating how many times we *almost* got the ball turned over on downs, but instead (I think) a couple of them ended up being touchdowns on 4th down.
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The drama came from getting too conservative near the end, we need to use that as a learning moment for sure. Also, that was one of the most most beautiful on side kick recovery in the history of football and was pure luck.
 
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#86
#86
walkenvol said:
Yea, the services and coaches miss some recruit evaluations but that applies to everyone. Our highest ranked recruit from 3 years back was a LB who contributed nothing and is now out of school and football. Your one 5* not meeting expectations doesn’t change the narrative that your guys are complaining about a lack of talent yet you’ve already lost to Kentucky & UT who both have less talent than Florida. Your entire offense is ranked higher than the guys who started for UT. Before the wheels came off last season, Mullen was winning 10 games a year and challenging for the East. That roster isn’t “bad” by any means
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Exactly! This idea that Florida has no talent currently is laughable and is an excuse used by their fans.
 
#87
#87
Going for it on 4th down in your own territory on the game's first possession is an act of desperation. Napier knew they couldn't stop us. It almost worked, but in the end, it didn't.
 
#88
#88
volintheham said:
The drama came from getting too conservative near the end, we need to use that as a learning moment for sure. Also, that was one of the most most beautiful on side kick recovery in the history of football and was pure luck.
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Thank God they couldn't advance the ball to where he was knocked out of bounds!!
 
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#90
#90
ptcarter said:
OK, morning after now. UF fans, so used to winning this game didn't. Ending was similar to lots of VOL heartbreak over the years and BVS kicked in full bore the last minute.
So I put myself in the shoes of a UF fan for a moment. Lot's to be upset about with him.

First, the math didn't really add up for the attempted 2 point conversions. The miss on the first cemented that they had to do it on the second. Those decisions will be talked about around the Florida coffee pots at work on Monday. Losing his cool and giving UT first and goal at the one inch line wasn't a good look either.

On the other hand... I think he knew he was outnumbered on this game. We saw a game where Florida only punted once (and UT none), and that punt pinned Tennessee on the one yard line. He rolled the dice on 3rd and 4th down, realizing Tennessee had some holes in their short yardage defense. And his success rate for that was phenomenal. If on any one of those, they don't convert, they would be in a deep deep hole. So what I saw in him - a strong will to win, and a strong will to roll the dice and go for more points and yardage. I would say he never really took his foot off the gas, and he had a pretty good offensive scheme that was well executed. Over 600 yards, and I would say, yes Tennessee had some defensive busts, but give Florida some credit for those busts. (Just like Florida's defense left some of Tennessee's receivers wide open, not just bad players making bad plays, but a coordinator in the booth spotting a vulnerability and exploiting it).

I see this guy as maybe not the brightest coach, but in a lot of ways, a warrior and a competitor. I think of Butch Jones kicking a field goal on 4th and one against Oklahoma - a game that went into overtime and losing. Score there and there wouldn't have been an overtime. Going for it on 4th down sends a strong message to the team that you have confidence in them and it puts the game on the backs of the players. Napier seems like the type of guy that would have scored on that night Tennessee lost to OU. I like his moxy. For those that say they want to keep playing against him for 20 years - I think you are fooling yourself.
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Napier did what he needed to do to keep his team in the game, and I can appreciate that. If Florida punts, Vols win by 28. Florida is a little like we were at the first of last year, shakey passing game and bad defense.
 
#92
#92
He coached to win the game, the only mistake he made in my opinion was going for two instead of making it a 10 point game but I think he was afraid of how overtime would go. I really hope AR balls out the rest of the year and goes to the NFL bc Napier knows how to use him.
 
#94
#94
[QUOTE="ETV, post: 21734575, member: 1021"]If Napier goes for 4th down that much against a superior defense, i.e. Georgia, he’s going to have his arse handed to him.[/QUOTE]

That's the key. Napier knows he has to reload a roster and like us is playing the cards he was dealt his first year. I think FL coaching knew we had weaknesses and if they were to sneak out of Knoxville with a win, they had to try and exploit that. No coach in his right mind would have that game plan against a UGA D. UF is UF though. A first year rebuild team will still go 9-3 most likely.
 
#95
#95
ptcarter said:
So what I saw in him - a strong will to win, and a strong will to roll the dice and go for more points and yardage. I would say he never really took his foot off the gas, and he had a pretty good offensive scheme that was well executed. .
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Napier showed everyone the blueprint for punching above your weight against a better opponent: foot on the gas, never punt, always score, no prevent D, play to the buzzer. TN did the same thing the entire game until we tried to run the clock in the 4th quarter - which was nearly a disaster.
 
#96
#96
Lawrence Wright said:
Your entire post makes my point. Sometimes recruiting services get it wrong.

Kadarius Toney was a 3* recruit and we currently don’t have anyone on the same planet as him talent-wise on offense.

Our 5* WR transfer Justin Shorter would struggle to see the field at UT with Tillman, Hyatt and McCoy in front of him. Yet he’s our only deep threat and he’s slower and less talented than your top 3 wideouts.
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That was the oddity of this game, and the UF roster as a whole this year...Not having a top class speedster or two on the outside is really weird.
 
#97
#97
Arrested Devolopment said:
Napier showed everyone the blueprint for punching above your weight against a better opponent: foot on the gas, never punt, always score, no prevent D, play to the buzzer. TN did the same thing the entire game until we tried to run the clock in the 4th quarter - which was nearly a disaster.
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The wisdom of Spurrier and Saban. alot of peoplr like to accuse them of running up the score. In the SEC, there can never be enough points. You never downshift.
 
#99
#99
Miami just got AppSt'd by MTSU, so yeah FSU can snatch up the states top talent and I wouldn't be mad.
 
#100
#100
GVF said:
[QUOTE="ETV, post: 21734575, member: 1021"] That's the key. Napier knows he has to reload a roster and like us is playing the cards he was dealt his first year. I think FL coaching knew we had weaknesses and if they were to sneak out of Knoxville with a win, they had to try and exploit that. No coach in his right mind would have that game plan against a UGA D. UF is UF though. A first year rebuild team will still go 9-3 most likely.
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Understand what you’re saying, but I completely disagree with your Georgia comment. If you have 4th and short against Georgia’s D with clearly inferior talent you have to be going for it. The whole gameplan should be trying to steal possessions from them and the perfect way to do that is by going for it. The more you punt to Georgia the harder it is to beat them. It’s already hard to get first downs on them so you have to be more willing to use 4 plays to get 10 yards, imo
 
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