My Bold Prediction

#52
#52
BigOrangeTrain said:
Kelly is as good as Kamara? What??? Based on the limited time we have seen him, Kelly is not Kamara. He is not as fast, shifty or the explosiveness that Kamara had. I really like Kelly but lets not fool ourselves here, Kamara was one of the most talented backs UT has had in a long time. And if Butch would have utilized him like he shoukd have, we could have been talking about Kamara being the BEST RB UT has EVER had.

AK is a rare talent. I hope Kelly is even better than Kamara but right now we have nothing to base it on. Runs harder than Hurd? Sorry but no way. Before Hurd became Kim Kardashian, the dude was an absolute force running the ball. There are knocks on Hurd but the dude ran HARD. Just as hard as Henry or Fournett. Kelly runs mean and with an attitude and I love it.
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Not sure about shiftiness or catching ability, but Kelly is definitely faster than Kamara. Kamara has a great burst and accelerates well, but never had great top end speed. Kelly, in his few opportunities, has never been caught from behind when he sees open field.

I'm not trying to knock Kamara by any means. I agree he's one of the better backs we've had here. But Kelly is faster. If Kamara had Kelly's top end speed, he'd be about the perfect RB (besides occasional fumble issues).
 
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#54
#54
TNinSC said:
I think making a bowl is a bold prediction
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Nah. If it starts looking like we aren't even going to be 6-6 at the end of the season, then CBJ should be shown the door before that comes to pass. There's really no excuse for anything less than 7-5 at the worst with the 2017 schedule.
 
#55
#55
IluvdoubleD's said:
Jesus people, based off fact. We have one of the most experienced lines in the country this year. Just depends on what they want to give us.
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Unless this is Trump Fact, it doesn't work that way.
Here is a real fact: These linemen were below average overall last year.

Now, we can hope and expect them to improve with experience but that is not a fact. Jesus, the education system in the country. What has it come down to.
 
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#56
#56
Can I suggest something totally new for our VN members?
Let's enter this campaign without presumptions that favor either the positive or the negative. Instead of making bold predictions, let's just let it happen and enjoy.

We often overlook one of the variables when constructing our linear equation forecasts. We don't know what progress our opponents are making. So the reality of what transpires on the field this fall are closer to quantum theory in that we don't know the exact path of subatomic particles and where they land.

Quietly and discreetly, I feel good about the position coaching changes. I almost feel like the players are more positive in learning and adapting to those changes. But it is just a feeling and patiently and optimistically I await the effect of these changes as practice continues and fall finally arrives again at last.
 
#57
#57
Perhaps this was a bit of an exaggeration, but I see no reason with the talent we've recruited and experience we return, coupled with John Kelly being a good RB that he can't be a 1,000 yard back.
 
#58
#58
WilliamDuVOL said:
Perhaps this was a bit of an exaggeration, but I see no reason with the talent we've recruited and experience we return, coupled with John Kelly being a good RB that he can't be a 1,000 yard back.
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One wonders how much Ty Chandler may influence Kelly's numbers.
 
#59
#59
WilliamDuVOL said:
Perhaps this was a bit of an exaggeration, but I see no reason with the talent we've recruited and experience we return, coupled with John Kelly being a good RB that he can't be a 1,000 yard back.
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There actually is no reason why he cannot be a 1200 yard rusher. But since Butch has been here, we really have yet to see a cohesive OL that does its job correctly on a week to week basis. They have shown flashes of being a great unit. But for the most part, our OL has been pretty bad since Jones arrived.

Remember we had the most experienced OL in the SEC last year and they still were not good. Hopefully Wells fixes this trend. Although, frankly I have my doubts.
 
#60
#60
hndog609 said:
One wonders how much Ty Chandler may influence Kelly's numbers.
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Chandler is an X factor for sure. Also, I know CFA has been hurt, but he was also a 4 star recruit that even Bama was after. I think if he gets going, he can prove to be a surprisingly good 3rd man in the rotation.
 
#61
#61
BigOrangeTrain said:
There actually is no reason why he cannot be a 1200 yard rusher. But since Butch has been here, we really have yet to see a cohesive OL that does its job correctly on a week to week basis. They have shown flashes of being a great unit. But for the most part, our OL has been pretty bad since Jones arrived.

Remember we had the most experienced OL in the SEC last year and they still were not good. Hopefully Wells fixes this trend. Although, frankly I have my doubts.
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Agreed. I am in wait and see mode with Wells, but I just really want to believe it can't be any worse than with Mahoney, and that it will be better. Also, not having to shuffle the O line every game might help.
 
#63
#63
WilliamDuVOL said:
Chandler is an X factor for sure. Also, I know CFA has been hurt, but he was also a 4 star recruit that even Bama was after. I think if he gets going, he can prove to be a surprisingly good 3rd man in the rotation.
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The problem under CBJ hasn't been so match the talent on the team, but getting results from that talent in CBJ's system, and developing that talent further.
 
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#64
#64
Our top 4 ball carriers last year were
Kelly 98- 630 yards - 5 Td's
Kamara 103- 596 yards - 9 Td's
Hurd 122- 451 yards - 3 Td's
Dobbs 150- 831 Yards - 12 Td's

Thats
473 carries
2508 yards
29 Tds

The offensive line will be better this year and we are breaking in a new QB so I fully expect us to run the ball at least as many times as last year. Also its highly unlikely that our new qb or even a combination of both of them come anywhere close to 150 carries this year. Probably half that. So that leaves about 400 carries to be split in the backfield. I think its safe to say that Kelly, if healthy will get the lions share of those, probably around 250.
If he keeps a similar average per carry as he did his soph year (6.4ypc), so lets say 6.0 for a nice round number, thats 1500 yards and at his TD rate of one per 20 touches hes gonna have around 13 tds.

So if you look at it from a number trend standpoint i dont think the prediction is crazy at all.
 
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#65
#65
IluvdoubleD's said:
Jesus people, based off fact. We have one of the most experienced lines in the country this year. Just depends on what they want to give us.
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OL is the one position group where we're extremely deep this year. There's going to be some good players playing backup this year
 
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#66
#66
IknoxvolsI said:
If Hurd couldn't do it (and I was never on his bandwagon) with all the touches he had, Kelly isn't gonna be able to sniff that.
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What?

Let me tell you what else Hurd couldn't do.....ever average more than 4.7 yards per carry in a season, which is below average for a college running back, especially one that's supposed to be pretty good.

Kelly at this point, after 138 carries, behind the same line in the same offense, is averaging 5.8 ypc. So yeah, if Kelly can stay healthy and gets anywhere near the carries that Hurd got, is actually more likely to do it. Don't think he will, but this idea that "if Hurd couldn't do it Kelly never will" is wrong imo.
 
#67
#67
KBVol said:
What?

Let me tell you what else Hurd couldn't do.....ever average more than 4.7 yards per carry in a season, which is below average for a college running back, especially one that's supposed to be pretty good.

Kelly at this point, after 138 carries, behind the same line in the same offense, is averaging 5.8 ypc. So yeah, if Kelly can stay healthy and gets anywhere near the carries that Hurd got, is actually more likely to do it. Don't think he will, but this idea that "if Hurd couldn't do it Kelly never will" is wrong imo.
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Exactly, Hurd has one of the lowest career ypc of any of our alltime top rushers. Hes near the top of the list based solely on volume of carries. Kamara and kelly both had far superior averages behind the same line because theyre built better for this offense and Hurd had subpar vision and average feet and hips.
 
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#68
#68
IknoxvolsI said:
If Hurd couldn't do it (and I was never on his bandwagon) with all the touches he had, Kelly isn't gonna be able to sniff that.
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Well now, if our blockers make the holes a little better than last year, I believe Kelly will burst through there quicker than Hurd did. Could happen.
 
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