This thread is a bit all over the place as it captures a few different aspects, but not organized perfectly. Just sharing some observations from long conversations with friends inside the department and the collective:
This will be the first year where player value is represented in market price with established values for players calculated before they enter team negotiations. I don’t have the time to elaborate, but this will be more about players generating alpha over perceived market value. This is 10x more sophisticated than it was last year. The key will be identifying players whose value is above perceived market value based on a formula that weights talent, body type, measurable and established performance. Unfortunately I believe we are behind other programs in deep analytics. Not surprisingly, Vandy and Indiana used analytics to identify players whose value was greater than market, with a focus on a metric that leans more on experience and proof than speculation. Our coaches have been above excellent at eye test evaluations on talent, and our transfers typically perform above their paper grades. We are not good at identifying high value players against market. That has to change quickly. Knowles understands analytics and will be quick to share recommendations on how we can improve.
One huge advantage of the Knowles hire— he’s not a jerk. He’s an excellent teacher, patient detail guy, but he doesn’t chase off people. He mentors them. You already can see this in the coaches who are following him. This will be true of past players too. Don’t judge a former PSU player based on PSU’s 25 record. They were building an A+ talent asset, and had some exceptional young and developed talent. Like Franklin or not, he is exceptional at spotting undervalued defensive talent and developing them quickly. He was such a believer in Knowles, that he gave full control to him. We’re going to get some good PSU, potentially OSU and other players that believe Knowles and team can grow their stock for the draft.
Our incoming Freshman class grades off the charts on high alpha over stars/player rating. Many guys are true positional game-changers. Many on staff believe this class is the best in the country regardless of rank. Our portal game, money game, analytics game needs to take a big jump fast.
I’d look for Knowles to move very quickly on four or five guys at safety, Leo, interior DL, corner to stabilize things.
On O, Heupel and his team are good at grading players, but we have a ceiling on budget that has been passed by the superpowers, and the bidding this year will be both sophisticated and aggressive. Right now some of the same boosters who banked Ament’s signing are being recruited to be ready if we need a big gun, but can’t bid effectively.
As Larry mentioned, we have to fit our needs inside our budget unless new money comes in.
It will be interesting to see how we fare in this new landscape.
️ of 2nd string QBs this portal season.
