Knowles/Portal changes etc.

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I've heard Heup is not the type of guy to go out of his way to woo the 'Angel' booster like Barnes did for Ament and Vitello did in the past. Does that jive with what you know about him? I hope the aggressive moves he's made so far means that mindset has changed if true.

Heupel is a former qb, qb coach, OC who spent more money on a qb (Nico) than anyone had at the time. Similarly, we went all in on getting Keys, seeing that we have to have a future NFL body in that spot. Heupel has a very different personality than TV or RB, but he gets his pov heard.

 

[MarcoVol]

That’s not the point. “Top” isn’t a specific metric. A know a guy who bought “a car” for a hundred grand doesn’t tell you anything about cars in general. Last year, many undervalued players were picked up for a bargain. This year QBs are coming into the portal valued at 2mm by analysts and receiving 4 to 5mm offers. The desperation to win now is blowing up everything. When the word is out that IU and Vandy won with deep player analytics, everyone is in that business. The funny/sad thing is Heupel made the case to DW who made it to Spyre that a great qb is a 10mm value over a full career. That led to Nico. We were first in making big qb bets, but not the best, and now we are competing with programs with unlimited resources for a finite pool of QBs.

Just how poor are we?

^ joking, joking. But where do we rank in the country? Top 12-15 NIL budget? How much did Adidas help?

I know of bball players that got $3.5M for a single season for this year. I still think being surprised by the money going up, especially at QB, is being unprepared. Somebody isn’t doing a good job. Doesn’t mean everyone isn’t doing a good job, but someone needs to have a better pulse on the market value of portal players.

Preciate the info!

 

[TNTodd]

Heupel is a former qb, qb coach, OC who spent more money on a qb (Nico) than anyone had at the time. Similarly, we went all in on getting Keys, seeing that we have to have a future NFL body in that spot. Heupel has a very different personality than TV or RB, but he gets his pov heard.

Welcome back...you have been quiet the last little bit. I look forward to getting your insight on most topics. You've been pretty spot on for a long time now. Hope you drop some tidbits over the off season.

 

[VOLociraptorr]

We are talking to, are interested in Leavitt. Like it or not, Heupel and GMac and his people all understand he needs some physical development to take the hits. We will pursue a qb, and will not aim for a backup. Unfortunately, Leavitt is an example of a player who fits the superpower bidding scenario. Both LSU and Oregon have open checkbooks and they both want him too. If we were to succeed, it would be driven by an Angel booster filling in the needed funds as we did with Ament. Leavitt's market price is perceived to have grown from 2mm annually to perhaps 4-5. He's probably out of our range.

Many people feared GMAC would leave.

It seems based on what you were saying that him and his family have a correct assessment of his abilities and physique.

Sounds like a smart, level-headed kid to me!

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Just how poor are we?

^ joking, joking. But where do we rank in the country? Top 12-15 NIL budget? How much did Adidas help?

I know of bball players that got $3.5M for a single season for this year. I still think being surprised by the money going up, especially at QB, is being unprepared. Somebody isn’t doing a good job. Doesn’t mean everyone isn’t doing a good job, but someone needs to have a better pulse on the market value of portal players.

Preciate the info!

It’s really about the speed of the change. We’ve been top three NIL, but this year, teams like Oregon predicted a big uptick and called for an up to fifty percent increase in NIL ceiling. Kiffin did something similar in his deal. We have dry powder and some heavy hitters who might pony up, I just think we aren’t going to be in it for the very top tier of qb.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Many people feared GMAC would leave.

It seems based on what you were saying that him and his family have a correct assessment of his abilities and physique.

Sounds like a smart, level-headed kid to me!

He’ll get courted for sure. I think one of Heupel’s strengths is clear honest communication. No player is surprised about where they stand, and what they need to do to move up.

 

[MarcoVol]

It’s really about the speed of the change. We’ve been top three NIL, but this year, teams like Oregon predicted a big uptick and called for an up to fifty percent increase in NIL ceiling. Kiffin did something similar in his deal. We have dry powder and some heavy hitters who might pony up, I just think we aren’t going to be in it for the very top tier of qb.

I’m not all that concerned, they’ll figure it out.

But if you could kindly pass along to whomever’s job is it to predict portal player market value:

Next year the players in the portal - especially including QBs - will cost much more than they do this year.

 

[Checker_the_Shire]

He’ll get courted for sure. I think one of Heupel’s strengths is clear honest communication. No player is surprised about where they stand, and what they need to do to move up.

That’s high quality leadership, regardless of the business or sport. Hearing this makes me respect Heupel more. I’ve been there when the boss doesn’t have clear and honest communication, it’s not good and creates more turmoil than already present. Good for Heupel being that kind of leader.

 

[LotteryPick]

It’s really about the speed of the change. We’ve been top three NIL, but this year, teams like Oregon predicted a big uptick and called for an up to fifty percent increase in NIL ceiling. Kiffin did something similar in his deal. We have dry powder and some heavy hitters who might pony up, I just think we aren’t going to be in it for the very top tier of qb.

I understand the “shoot your shot” sentiment, but I see a ton of value in that second tier of QB’s available. I sort of wish we’d just bypass Sorsby and Leavitt and go straight to a guy like Barnett.

 

[LaagerVol]

I understand the “shoot your shot” sentiment, but I see a ton of value in that second tier of QB’s available. I sort of wish we’d just bypass Sorsby and Leavitt and go straight to a guy like Barnett.

agree

As long as they can process quickly, see the field and make quick decisions.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I understand the “shoot your shot” sentiment, but I see a ton of value in that second tier of QB’s available. I sort of wish we’d just bypass Sorsby and Leavitt and go straight to a guy like Barnett.

I tend to agree. In my original post, I was saying that teams are going to have to improve at Billyball and find high value against the dollars this year to combat the teams with endless means.

 

[Dooby15]

I tend to agree. In my original post, I was saying that teams are going to have to improve at Billyball and find high value against the dollars this year to combat the teams with endless means.

 

[Vol8188]

Good stuff! We will be bringing in more than 4-5 players for the defense, right?

AP thinks more

 

[SpringBokVol]

That’s not the point. “Top” isn’t a specific metric. A know a guy who bought “a car” for a hundred grand doesn’t tell you anything about cars in general. Last year, many undervalued players were picked up for a bargain. This year QBs are coming into the portal valued at 2mm by analysts and receiving 4 to 5mm offers. The desperation to win now is blowing up everything. When the word is out that IU and Vandy won with deep player analytics, everyone is in that business. The funny/sad thing is Heupel made the case to DW who made it to Spyre that a great qb is a 10mm value over a full career. That led to Nico. We were first in making big qb bets, but not the best, and now we are competing with programs with unlimited resources for a finite pool of QBs.

This is the point! It's moneyball analytics that ties real value with $$$ vs perceived value.

Say what you want about Vandy, but they went to school and figured out who to target and built a very competitive roster where their investments paid off.

We have been swinging and hitting some, but missing some too - that isn't a formula that will work in today's landscape.

We need to get very good at identifying portal value/talent and come with a competitive negotiation strategy to lock it up.

 

[MarcoVol]

This is the point! It's moneyball analytics that ties real value with $$$ vs perceived value.

Say what you want about Vandy, but they went to school and figured out who to target and built a very competitive roster where their investments paid off.

We have been swinging and hitting some, but missing some too - that isn't a formula that will work in today's landscape.

We need to get very good at identifying portal value/talent and come with a competitive negotiation strategy to lock it up.

Who cares about Vandy, look at IU. They are the gold standard.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

That’s not the point. “Top” isn’t a specific metric. A know a guy who bought “a car” for a hundred grand doesn’t tell you anything about cars in general. Last year, many undervalued players were picked up for a bargain. This year QBs are coming into the portal valued at 2mm by analysts and receiving 4 to 5mm offers. The desperation to win now is blowing up everything. When the word is out that IU and Vandy won with deep player analytics, everyone is in that business. The funny/sad thing is Heupel made the case to DW who made it to Spyre that a great qb is a 10mm value over a full career. That led to Nico. We were first in making big qb bets, but not the best, and now we are competing with programs with unlimited resources for a finite pool of QBs.

This just tells me I should lower my expectations for our ceiling as a program. Feels like we’ve been hearing how TN is resource constrained for awhile and we aren’t playing with the big dawgs in total cash on hand.

 

[SpringBokVol]

Who cares about Vandy, look at IU. They are the gold standard.

Agreed. Same model. Better coach and staff.

 

[KB5252]

It’s really about the speed of the change. We’ve been top three NIL, but this year, teams like Oregon predicted a big uptick and called for an up to fifty percent increase in NIL ceiling. Kiffin did something similar in his deal. We have dry powder and some heavy hitters who might pony up, I just think we aren’t going to be in it for the very top tier of qb.

Do you think any portion of your last sentence has to do with the fact that Heupel feels he can get it done with the right player, even if he's not the most expensive?

I really would like a more dynamic runner/guy who can extend plays at QB.

Are there any names you've heard about it we should keep an eye on?

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Offense led the league in scoring this year with a guy taking snaps who wasn’t on the team until April.

We’ll prob be ok on offense.

Wasn’t on team until last week of May of first week of a June but why be picky it was only 5-6 week difference…LOL

 

[MemphisVol3]

This just tells me I should lower my expectations for our ceiling as a program. Feels like we’ve been hearing how TN is resource constrained for awhile and we aren’t playing with the big dawgs in total cash on hand.

Ours is spread across multiple sports even though football gets the majority. Many other programs focus on one or 2.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

This just tells me I should lower my expectations for our ceiling as a program. Feels like we’ve been hearing how TN is resource constrained for awhile and we aren’t playing with the big dawgs in total cash on hand.

I’m not sure if that’s true. Could be. It goes in cycles. I was most impressed by three teams in their talent analysis and use of funds: Indy, Candy, and Ole Miss. None of them were in the top tier of NIL.

 

[WesTnVol]

After I retired I worked at a pretty high end hot rod shop. We attended several car shows with cars for sale and always looking to buy. I say all this to say, you can’t bid against crazy, it‘s funny to watch a guy pay $5-10,000 more than a car is worth and then turn around and complain about how high the price of cars is getting.
I think SF is correct, do your research, trust your instincts and don’t throw money out the window just because everyone else is doing it.

 

[Daddy pants]

I’m not sure if that’s true. Could be. It goes in cycles. I was most impressed by three teams in their talent analysis and use of funds: Indy, Candy, and Ole Miss. None of them were in the top tier of NIL.

Appreciate the insight-it helps with perspective. There are so many generalizations out there about funds. If we are only using individual angel investors as our budget source, then surely that well will run dry…..or will before the before Mark Cuban or Larry Ellison’s funds run dry. Surely that’s not the whole story? What I don’t understand-and probably not meant to-is the difference between rev share and NIL funds. How are those funds allocated to retain and acquire talent. What silo do the Adidas funds fall under?

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Appreciate the insight-it helps with perspective. There are so many generalizations out there about funds. If we are only using individual angel investors as our budget source, then surely that well will run dry…..or will before the before Mark Cuban or Larry Ellison’s funds run dry. Surely that’s not the whole story? What I don’t understand-and probably not meant to-is the difference between rev share and NIL funds. How are those funds allocated to retain and acquire talent. What silo do the Adidas funds fall under?

I’m driving, I can’t to do the full semester on NIL, rev share, Adidas. I will say that we are not relying on Angel boosters for our NIL budget. We may call in Angel boosters to chase some big names or increase our resources quickly. We have a very stable and diverse NIL pool otherwise.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

We need a couple of space eaters at DT again. We missed Elijah and Big O alot this year.