Joe Milton Throw by Throw Breakdown

#26
#26
Well, I still think he fits the "dual-threat" moniker more than JG did, but he's not Lamar Jackson in the running game, I agree.

The rest, I completely concur with.
Meh...he’s no more of a dual-threat than JG was. I saw his running as very comparable. He runs tentatively...more than anyone his size should. His 40 time is the same as Baileys. He can be effective running, either one of them can, but he’s no dual-threat and never has been.

With the mistakes cleaned up we can win with him. I certainly can see why they want him to be the guy. But he has work to do if he wants to be the guy.
 
#27
#27
College football rule question

in NFL, you will see Aaron Rogers when a flag is thrown go long because if it’s intercepted it will come back, if it’s good it counts. Win win

Last night, BG had 12 men on the field with flag and Milton threw it out of bounds because he didn’t have an open receiver and had pressure...Should he have thrown the deep ball with a free play or are the rules different in college. I also noticed on another free play the ref blew the whistle immediately Killing the play.
 
#28
#28
Meh...he’s no more of a dual-threat than JG was. I saw his running as very comparable. He runs tentatively...more than anyone his size should. His 40 time is the same as Baileys. He can be effective running, either one of them can, but he’s no dual-threat and never has been.

With the mistakes cleaned up we can win with him. I certainly can see why they want him to be the guy. But he has work to do if he wants to be the guy.

That's fair. I guess part of my thought is that he escaped the pocket a few times in order to make a throw, whereas JG 100% takes that sack in the process.

That said, he did rush for 44 yards on 14 attempts last night, including two touchdowns, which was more than JG's season totals for 2017 (-39 on 66 attempts), 2018 (-94 on 40 attempts), and 2020 (17 on 41 attempts), and only 10 yards less than JG's season high in 2019 of 54 on 49 attempts.

I know sacks count in those numbers, so it will be interesting to see how the season plays out, but if you are rushing for positive yards regularly, then you typically won't end up with negative season totals. We'll obviously have to wait and see, but I hope the errors can be corrected in the passing game more than anything. Any yards we get on the ground are just an added benefit, most likely.
 
#29
#29
Interesting thing is that my old college roommate's assessment before the game (he works in the AD and attends practices regularly) was that Milton could be accurate, but throws too hard, and he said the receivers were not good at catching.

I think our whole offense is just... Weak.
 
#30
#30
I had hoped for Milton to be successful, even though my choice was Harrison Bailey. I had accepted the premise that Heupel was a developer of QBs, so he must be seeing something in practice.

After watching the game, I believe he saw a practice player, but not a gamer. Milton can throw the ball hard, but that does not make him, or anyone else, a QB. He has no touch. He cannot make decisions. He holds the ball way too long; wearing out his OL and the receivers run out of room while he is holding the ball and stares down his receiver.

His running ability was way overhyped. He started great, but went down hill very fast. The longer he played, the worse he got.

I was very excited about our team, and I did see some good things from offense and defense, but if Milton is to be the QB that JH hangs onto like JP hung onto JG. it will be a long. disappointing season.

Also, in his sort stint, Hooker looked like Milton II. These two will take the heart out of our team.
 
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#31
#31
Thanks for posting. It was good to see it broken down like that. The 40 yard td pass to Milton was basically a jump ball that the defender should have been able to break up had he kept his body under control. Good receivers come down with those pretty often though. Juaun Jenings comes to mind. Alvin Harper was the best we ever had. Being 6'3" with long arms and big hands helped.
 
#33
#33
That's fair. I guess part of my thought is that he escaped the pocket a few times in order to make a throw, whereas JG 100% takes that sack in the process.

That said, he did rush for 44 yards on 14 attempts last night, including two touchdowns, which was more than JG's season totals for 2017 (-39 on 66 attempts), 2018 (-94 on 40 attempts), and 2020 (17 on 41 attempts), and only 10 yards less than JG's season high in 2019 of 54 on 49 attempts.

I know sacks count in those numbers, so it will be interesting to see how the season plays out, but if you are rushing for positive yards regularly, then you typically won't end up with negative season totals. We'll obviously have to wait and see, but I hope the errors can be corrected in the passing game more than anything. Any yards we get on the ground are just an added benefit, most likely.
Every little bit helps for sure. My only point is he’s not really a dual threat QB, and we sure temper our expectations in that respect. Of course, neither was Tee Martin or Josh Dobbs.
 
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#34
#34
Hooker can actually run and is more accurate than Joe. Give him a shot already.
 
#36
#36
I was at the game too. If a QB does this against Pitt we are screwed. Mediocre SEC teams will rip his head off.

I’ll be at the Pitt game as well.

Go VOLS!!!
 
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#38
#38
Pass 1: Throws on 2nd down and 9 to Jacob Warren after rolling out. Nice throw, pass was good for 4 yards.
Pass 2: Throws on 3rd and 5, hits Jalen Hyatt on a comeback route, stayed in pocket, good for 6 yards and a first down.
Pass 3: Threw on 1st and 10 to Javonta Payton at the sideline. Accurate throw, good for 6 yards.
Pass 4: Very next play, short throw to Javonta Payton again on the sideline, good for first down and then some.
Pass 5: 2nd down throw down the left sideline incomplete. Threw it too high for receiver Hyatt. However, there was a personal foul that may have impacted the throw. Play was negated

Pass 6: Scrambles outside of the pocket, extends the play, hits Fant on the sideline, accurate throw. Good for 6 yards.
Pass 7: 1st and 10. Overthrows Cedric Tillman by at least 7 yards. Tillman beat the DBs, but still an overthrow by Milton.
Pass 8: Short throw to Hyatt. Accurate, but Hyatt tackled immediately. Good for about 6 yards.
Pass 9: 1st and 10. Has an absurd amount of time, throws a strike to Hyatt on the left sideline, Hyatt makes a man miss gets the 1st and more.

Pass 10: Scrambles outside of the pocket, gives a strike to Jalen Hyatt across the middle of the field, again, absurd amount of time to throw.
Pass 11: Pass complete to Velus Jones, however, threw it a bit behind him, which led to an early tackle, and not much positive yardage or space to run. (This play was negated by a holding penalty)
Pass 12: Completed pass to Cedric Tillman, hit him right in the numbers, good for 8 yards. (The next play was the one where Tiyon was in the middle of the field wide open jumping up and down waving his arms, but Joe instead took a sack, leading to 4th down.)

Pass 13: Threw an absolute bullet across the middle of the field to Hyatt. Hit Hyatt in between the numbers but it was too hot to handle and Hyatt dropped it.
Pass 14: 0:01 on the clock before the half. Threw ball out of bounds. Play was negated due to flag.
Pass 15: 0:01 on the clock before the half. Threw ball into end zone. Gave Tillman a chance to catch it, but a Hail Mary is just about getting it there. There were 4 white jerseys surrounding Tillman.

End of 1st Half

Pass 16: Has all day to throw on 1st and 10. Overthrows Tillman by maybe 1-2 yards on what would have been a touchdown.
Pass 17: Threw to the sideline to Javonta Payton. Pass was caught, but with a foot out of bounds, therefore incomplete. This led to a 4th down.
Pass 18: Overthrew Tillman again down the right sideline, however, pass interference was called. Tillman had a shot at it had the defense played it clean.
Pass 19: Had all day to throw, scrambled to the left, threw to Hyatt about 6 yards downfield, but Hyatt caught it out of bounds.
Pass 20: Scrambled right, threw to the end zone at Hyatt, accurate pass, but the DB played it well and swatted it.
Pass 21: Threw to the endzone to Tillman from about the 12 yard line. Threw it too far to the front shoulder instead of the back shoulder. Jordan Rodgers commented about throwing it too far ahead. Incomplete.
Pass 22: Hit Hyatt perfectly right in front of the end zone, most likely would have been a touchdown. Hyatt dropped it, and he knew it too.
Pass 23: Threw to Velus Jones across midfield. Pass hit dirt, appeared too low. Incomplete. However, pass interference was called, so it's hard to blame it on either Milton or Jones.
Pass 24: Absolutely perfect 40 yard strike to Tillman in the end zone. Did a good job buying time in the pocket, and beautiful throw.

I realize all of this is basically my interpretation of his performance. I can't speak to how plays were supposed to go, or even which receivers were open that he missed, since TV didn't always show that.

But when I look at the passes he actually threw, he had an overthrow to Tillman that would have been a touchdown had he scaled back just a smidge (Tillman had his man beat). He had at least two throws that were impacted by pass interference or a personal foul. He had two perfect passes that were dropped by Hyatt. He overthrew Tillman by a yard or 2. He threw passes too far to the sidelines, just enough to where the receiver had to step out of bounds.

I can't comment on his rushing ability either. I don't know what plays were designed runs, and what he improvised. And I know there were some plays where he missed open receivers.

But, after watching it all a second time, I can't see where the hate is coming from. He had about two overthrows that could have been TDs. If he places that ball 3 feet behind Tillman on his back shoulder instead of his front, he would have had another TD. And had Hyatt not dropped the one on the 3 yard line, he would have had another.

Milton could have easily had a very different stat line in this game. Initially I was disappointed in his performance. But after watching it again? His throws were miles above what we were used to seeing from JG. He was throwing the ball accurately for the most part, and when he was off, he was not off by much. And aside from the fumble, he took care of the football. I didn't see any passes that I thought were "dangerous" passes, i.e. throwing into double coverage.

It's obvious he has a connection with Tillman, and if that timing and connection gets stronger, holy crap, that could be magic.

Milton won't have all day to throw like he did today in other games. But I think that may help him, as sometimes he took too long to make decisions, and then went for more ambitious throws than he should have.

My point? I don't think it was as bad as it seemed. He threw well. Not perfectly. But well. The receivers need to step up their game. And it's also obvious we tried hard to establish the running game.

I think it'll be alright. Next week will show us much more about who this team is. GBO. So nice to see the Orange and White back in Neyland again.
Don;t know the pass number, but there was a couple of throws to the sideline, that I felt that if it was against an SEC DB they would have been picked. They say the best improvement comes in game two, so I will take a wait and see.
 
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#40
#40
So maybe we can put the “dual-threat” fantasy to bed. He’s not. He never was.

Big arm, no touch, holds the ball too long, can’t read the field. Groundhogs day for Vol fans.

I think Milton has promise, but he’s no program changer. I trust Heupel to find it, or make the necessary adjustment.

It’s the first game, and the guy got here this summer. Too soon for the panic button.
Well summarized.
 
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#41
#41
Here's a number comparison to chew on.

90 offensive plays, 23 passing plays. Right at 25% of all plays were pass attempts for an offensive scheme that is up-tempo, air-raid in its nature. Only 11 of those plays were successful.

There was a reason why pass attempts were limited, and we came out in the second half running the ball only. It's because we had to adjust and play what was working. Thank God the O-line got the push and created holes like it did. I - and the staff I assume - wasn't sure we could win if we had to pass the ball.
 
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#42
#42
I think you can sum up Milton's whole night in one play. Watch the TD pass to Tillman. He has plenty of time in the pocket, never takes his eyes off of Tillman, rolls out has a RB wide open and if he throws it to him he might score, but never saw him and then threw a terrible pass and got bailed out
 
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#43
#43
Meh...he’s no more of a dual-threat than JG was. I saw his running as very comparable. He runs tentatively...more than anyone his size should. His 40 time is the same as Baileys. He can be effective running, either one of them can, but he’s no dual-threat and never has been.

With the mistakes cleaned up we can win with him. I certainly can see why they want him to be the guy. But he has work to do if he wants to be the guy.

He either needs to run hard or get the hell down, in the SEC he is going to get rocked. He didn't play bad, but he will probably struggle to be average in the SEC. I think between this game and his Michigan time, you know what you have and don't have.

I think he played better than the stats but his ceiling is very limited. It might be a situation of using multiple QBs.
 
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#46
#46
But, after watching it all a second time, I can't see where the hate is coming from.
My criticism (not condemnation at this point) is that he was not effective overall against a really bad defense. I'm not as concerned about the misfires as I am the plays he did not see. Even the guys on TV were talking about how he missed some of the in routes. They and Heupel talked about him missing open throws to the TE against their 8 man drop.

Not "hate" but this looked a lot like what he did at Michigan. Hot and cold accuracy. Missing open receivers. Not reading coverages well. What looked like poor Pre-Snap recognition.

I'm not anti-Milton whatsoever. But he has to play much better. Other parts of the team that folks here were concerned about played pretty well. He didn't.
 
#47
#47
Well, I still think he fits the "dual-threat" moniker more than JG did, but he's not Lamar Jackson in the running game, I agree.

The rest, I completely concur with.
I completely disagree. Worst running qb I have seen on the hill including Casey clausen, at least Casey didn’t turn around and back into the hit. Jg not good runner, but at least he didn’t back up into the hit. He had one run against a high school defense that he did well and that was the second rushing td that he should have handed off to the back
 
#48
#48
One caveat to the BGSU bashing that many of us have done is that while they gave up a lot of rushing yards last year... they allowed only 165 yds passing per game. Their strategy seemed to be to run the clock and keep UT from getting chunks of yardage. They were often dropping 8 men into a zone. Milton handled it poorly but BGSU played to get the game they got.

Honestly, you could say from a "strategic" standpoint BGSU actually dictated the game. They wanted to limit UT's possessions and did so to an extent. They wanted the clock to run on both sides and got that by preventing chunk plays and success in the passing game.
 
#49
#49
Does it worry anyone else that Milton LOVES standing in the pocket flat-footed? I mean, it's great that our line is giving him all the time in the world, but he literally just stands there. It's odd.
 
#50
#50
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating

Do I need to post JG's QBR and Milton's as well, or are you good to look that up on your own?
There's a lot of intangibles that QB ratings can't measure. This was a very good performance by Joe and far superior than most of JGs starts. He showed leadership, managed the game well and had good command of the offense. I don't thing JG showed all of those skills in but a few games. I may have been a little heavy handed in my post but I was not a JG fan. He simply did not have the skills to be a successful SEC QB.
 
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