Jalen Hurd drafted by the Niners

hndog609

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CAREER YPC STATS against top 50 defenses:
ALL DATA was gathered from College Football Statistics and History | College Football at Sports-Reference.com and accessed today.
If you have a problem with how they ranked the Defenses--take that up with the HOST of the website.

HURD (2014--2016) 400 carries for 1729 yards at 4.3 YPC. (included 2014 UGA defense ranked #53 and giving up 4.1 YPC) over 21 games.

The VOLS played 14 games over the 2015 & 2016 seasons against teams RANKED in the TOP 50 based on YPC allowed.
HURD (2015 & 2016 top 50 Defenses) = 301 carries for 1306 yards at 4.3 YPC
KAMARA (2015 & 2016 top 50 Defenses) = 108 carries for 466 yards at 4.3 YPC

Well, N0W...to break it down a little further:

In 8 games AGAINST TOP 50 DEF IN 2015
HURD: 187 carries for 871 yards and 4.7 YPC
KAMARA: 62 carries for 280 yards and 4.5 YPC

In 6 games AGAINST TOP 50 DEF IN 2016
HURD: 114 carries for 435 yards and 3.8 YPC
KAMARA: 46 carries for 186 yards and 4.0 YPC.


I found that both RBs had 10+ carries in 4 GAMES against top 50 DEFENSES over those 2 seasons.
In those 4 games
:
HURD: 68 carries for 353 yards for 5.2 YPC
KAMARA: 54 carries for 281 yards for 5.2 YPC

That's as close as it gets between these two running backs with more than 10 carries per game against the TOP 50 DEFENSES on the schedule.

2015: 5 games against teams with Defenses ranked 63+ in terms of YPC allowed:
Hurd: 90 carries for 414 yards at 4.6 YPC
Kamara: 45 carries for 418 yards at 9.3 YPC

There were 2 of those 5 games where each RB had 10+ carries:
HURD: 38 carries for 195 yards at 5.1 YPC
KAMARA: 30 carries for 271 yards at 9.0 YPC.

2016: 6 games against teams with DEFENSES RANKED 65+ in terms of YPC allowed:
HURD carried the ball 8 times in only one of those games before quitting: USCe (#93 on the list) 8 times for 16 yards.
KAMARA missed the USCe game after being injured in the 1st half of the Alabama game.

KAMARA: 57 carries for 410 yards at 7.2 YPC
KELLY: 85 carries for 500 yards at 5.9 YPC

SPEAKING OF JOHN KELLY--

IN 10 games over the 2016-2017 seasons against TOP 50 DEFENSES in terms of YPC allowed:

JOHN KELLY had 123 carries for 475 yards at 3.9 YPC (I included 2017 Fla defense even though they were ranked #58 and gave up 4.2 YPC).

IN 10 games over 2016-2017 against DEFENSES RANKED 65+ in terms of YPC allowed:

KELLY: 157 carries for 829 yards at 5.3 YPC.


So--there are the numbers. I attempted to put the excel spreadsheet up in the post but I'm too dumb to figure out how to do it.


There's NO REAL DEBATE here.
HURD and KAMARA were pretty equal against the better defenses----with HURD taking the brunt of the beatings in terms in # of carries.
That sure PROVES how durable and tough HURD was at UT.
HURD sure wasn't "sexy" running the ball---but he was effective and durable. And HE SUFFERED for it physically.

Kamara definitely broke more long runs than Hurd did. He just did it against inferior competition.
Kamara averaged about 8 carries per game against the tougher Defenses--and just a little over 9 against the weaker defenses.

Jones and his crew were just plain 'ol stupid NOT TO SHARE the LOAD between these two very good RBs.
And they should've kept KAMARA on the field in the slot while he wasn't lining up at RB.

So, in the end, all of the noise made on here about how much BETTER KAMARA was than HURD is just a bunch of plain 'ol YAK MANURE.
There's a lot of numbers thrown around here but there's also a lot of "forest for the trees" as well. Sometimes you do the best you can with all the variables available. If one is trying to compare X player in the Pac 10 to Y player in the SEC about all that can be done is smooth the comparative stats as much as possible and try to make the oranges look as apple'ish as possible.

We don't have to do that here because we don't need to make a stat puree and attempt to interpret the unavoidably flawed outcomes. Because we are talking about players that played together we can actually make it apples to apples...literally same players/same opponent/same game. It's as even a comparison as can possibly be managed. From what I looked at it appears Hurd and Kamara shared carries in 19 games over the '15/'16 seasons with Kelly only 7 games. Here's the numbers I came up with:

Hurd 365 carries, 1646 yards, 4.5ypc
Kamara 149 carries, 851 yards, 5.7ypc
Kelly 55 carries, 277 yards, 5ypc

Now let's look at that Hurd ypc number. That 4.5 over 365 carries is exactly the same as his entire cumulative career carries of 637. (Baylor included, where he averaged 4.4) This makes sense if you think about it though. The argument has been he's a big and strong but unspectacular back. He'll get you yards more often than not but his ceiling as a RB isn't very high. In 18 fewer games Kamara had only 1 less game of 5ypc or more. (42 games vs 24) Put another way Kamara averaged 5ypc or more in 50% of his college games vs Hurd's 31%.

And it's practically an aside from a different post but bringing up Herschel Walker "only" having a 5.2ypc average is a prime example of an out of context observation. Holy cow. You do realize how one dimensional GA was with Walker, right? During Walker's tenure GA (80-83) only attempted 536 passes. Walker had 994 carries by himself. (in total GA rushed 1,895 to that 536 pass att) Defenses didn't sweat the pass much vs Walker. You want to talk about Hurd having to suffer under the load of carries? The most Hurd ever had was 277 in 13 games.(21pg) Walker had 274 in two game less and that was just his Fr year. His So year he had 410 carries (including bowl) in 12 games. That's averaging just over 34 carries per game. There's pretty much never a reason to put Walker and "only" in the same sentence.
 

MikeVol44

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There's a lot of numbers thrown around here but there's also a lot of "forest for the trees" as well. Sometimes you do the best you can with all the variables available.
This is precisely the point!

Using the YPC stat as the sole standard for evaluating RBs is NOT the BEST we can do! .
The entire objective of using statistical analysis is to produce the most OBJECTIVE environment for making FAIR and ACCURATE comparisons.
YOU MUST be willing to go into the trees in order to allow for the obstacles preventing the establishment of an OBJECTIVE and FAIR comparison.
The data I put up earlier in this thread was my attempt to do just that and create an objective, fair, and accurate comparison.

I threw Walker's career 5.3 YPC average out there on purpose to see who'd bite....
Here's some numbers for you that illustrate my point perfectly!

Herschel 994 carries for 5259 yards and 5.3 YPC
Greg Pruitt 393 carries for 2939 yards and 7.5 YPC

Pruitt AVERAGED 2.2 YPC more than Walker did over his 3 year career
Walker carried the ball 2.8 times more than Pruitt did over his 3 year career

Hurd 589 carries for 2635 yards and 4.5 YPC
Kamara 210 carries for 1294 yards and 6.2 YPC

Kamara AVERAGED 1.7 YPC more than HURD did over his 2 year career
HURD carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did over his career

If you want to tell me that KAMARA was BETTER than HURD...based on YPC....
then you must conclude that Pruitt was BETTER than Walker...based on YPC...

This reality is EXACTLY why I took the time to publish all that data above in this thread.
Using YPC alone is NOT an objective, fair comparison between Hurd and Kamara because of the HUGE difference
between the # of carries over their respective careers.

The data I published earlier in this thread undeniably shows that HURD and KAMARA were dang equal against the top 50 defenses they played against while at UT.
If anything, the statistical nod goes to HURD because he carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did in those games. 301/108 = 2.8

Kamara gets the nod when they played inferior teams on their schedule.

Hurd and Kamara NEVER played together in 2016 against the inferior defenses that season.

However, they did play against the better defenses together in 2016 with the same OL and in those games they were virtually equal in production.
The same can be said for the 2015 season--virtually equal production against the top 50 defenses on the schedule.

I'm NOT saying that Hurd was better....and I'm not saying that Kamara was better.
They both were very good in their different assignments at RB.
 

hndog609

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This is precisely the point!

Using the YPC stat as the sole standard for evaluating RBs is NOT the BEST we can do! .
The entire objective of using statistical analysis is to produce the most OBJECTIVE environment for making FAIR and ACCURATE comparisons.
YOU MUST be willing to go into the trees in order to allow for the obstacles preventing the establishment of an OBJECTIVE and FAIR comparison.
The data I put up earlier in this thread was my attempt to do just that and create an objective, fair, and accurate comparison.

I threw Walker's career 5.3 YPC average out there on purpose to see who'd bite....
Here's some numbers for you that illustrate my point perfectly!

Herschel 994 carries for 5259 yards and 5.3 YPC
Greg Pruitt 393 carries for 2939 yards and 7.5 YPC

Pruitt AVERAGED 2.2 YPC more than Walker did over his 3 year career
Walker carried the ball 2.8 times more than Pruitt did over his 3 year career

Hurd 589 carries for 2635 yards and 4.5 YPC
Kamara 210 carries for 1294 yards and 6.2 YPC

Kamara AVERAGED 1.7 YPC more than HURD did over his 2 year career
HURD carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did over his career

If you want to tell me that KAMARA was BETTER than HURD...based on YPC....
then you must conclude that Pruitt was BETTER than Walker...based on YPC...

This reality is EXACTLY why I took the time to publish all that data above in this thread.
Using YPC alone is NOT an objective, fair comparison between Hurd and Kamara because of the HUGE difference
between the # of carries over their respective careers.

The data I published earlier in this thread undeniably shows that HURD and KAMARA were dang equal against the top 50 defenses they played against while at UT.
If anything, the statistical nod goes to HURD because he carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did in those games. 301/108 = 2.8

Kamara gets the nod when they played inferior teams on their schedule.

Hurd and Kamara NEVER played together in 2016 against the inferior defenses that season.

I think you missed what my numbers represented, ONLY games in which Hurd and Kamara both played were included in my numbers. No Hurd 2014 games nor any 2016 after SC were used.

However, they did play against the better defenses together in 2016 with the same OL and in those games they were virtually equal in production.
The same can be said for the 2015 season--virtually equal production against the top 50 defenses on the schedule.

I'm NOT saying that Hurd was better....and I'm not saying that Kamara was better.
They both were very good in their different assignments at RB.
OK, you played around with a lot more stat soup. Let's get one thing straight...I don't care about trying to rank "inferior defenses" when all else is actually as equal as possible. That was in fact the entire gist of my last post. Ask yourself this pretty simple question...if you can be trying to focus so hard on the quality of the defenses and Hurd was so good why the hell didn't he monster the "inferior" ones? Look, and I know this isn't helpful to the take you're trying to make work, but there isn't a more equal comparison that can be made than having the same players on the same team playing the same opponents. It's the best we can do with the information available. You've seen those numbers. I think this needs brought up again.

Now let's look at that Hurd ypc number. That 4.5 over 365 carries is exactly the same as his entire cumulative career carries of 637. (Baylor included, where he averaged 4.4) This makes sense if you think about it though. The argument has been he's a big and strong but unspectacular back. He'll get you yards more often than not but his ceiling as a RB isn't very high. In 18 fewer games Kamara had only 1 less game of 5ypc or more. (42 games vs 24) Put another way Kamara averaged 5ypc or more in 50% of his college games vs Hurd's 31%.

I'm not one of the Hurd bashers. I will point out that there's an actually pretty clear delineation between what Hurd is and is not. Hurd was pretty slow (4.66 40, and this is after slimming down to play WR mind you) with average elusiveness. This was somewhat mitigated by his sheer size and strength but as cited in the above it kind of puts a natural ceiling on his ability. If I was going to reduce the Hurd vs Kamara (or any of UT's RBs that get brought up) comparison down to it's barest essence it would be this; on any given set of plays Hurd could give you a nice run whereas the other guys could make a huge play if not house it outright. This isn't working in some "it's all about ypc and nothing else" vacuum. EVERYTHING points to Hurd being a big strong guy with limited big play potential running out of the backfield. There's not a damn thing wrong with that but there are other players (many cited in these various comparison threads) which bring a lot more to the table.

As for Greg Pruitt let's be clear that guy was one damn fine back. Hell, he made 4 Pro Bowls with the BROWNS. Now having said that it's time to break out the context meter and show why it's so dangerous to cross pollinate stats. (particularly when a decade apart) While Pruitt was obviously the best of the lot those same OK squads had 7 (yes, 7) other RB's average at least 5ypc. In fact 3 managed over 6 and 2 over 7. That '71 squad had 5 players (NOT counting Pruitt) that had at least 300yds rushing and a cumulative 6.1ypc. I'm pretty sure the two of us could have gotten 3ypc in that offense.
 

MikeVol44

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OK, you played around with a lot more stat soup. Let's get one thing straight...I don't care about trying to rank "inferior defenses" when all else is actually as equal as possible. That was in fact the entire gist of my last post. Ask yourself this pretty simple question...if you can be trying to focus so hard on the quality of the defenses and Hurd was so good why the hell didn't he monster the "inferior" ones? Look, and I know this isn't helpful to the take you're trying to make work, but there isn't a more equal comparison that can be made than having the same players on the same team playing the same opponents. It's the best we can do with the information available. You've seen those numbers. I think this needs brought up again.

Now let's look at that Hurd ypc number. That 4.5 over 365 carries is exactly the same as his entire cumulative career carries of 637. (Baylor included, where he averaged 4.4) This makes sense if you think about it though. The argument has been he's a big and strong but unspectacular back. He'll get you yards more often than not but his ceiling as a RB isn't very high. In 18 fewer games Kamara had only 1 less game of 5ypc or more. (42 games vs 24) Put another way Kamara averaged 5ypc or more in 50% of his college games vs Hurd's 31%.
I'll try again to keep this simple....

When Hurd and Kamara ran against the best defenses on the schedule---their averages were statistically identical!!!
No matter how hard you attempt to deny that FACT--IT'S JUST TRUE.

And it's a FAIR AND EQUAL COMPARISON!

Kamara had a greater YPC against the weaker defenses.
So, he was more likely to break those long runs against the Kentucky's and other weak sisters on the schedule.
 
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hndog609

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I'll try again to keep this simple....

When Hurd and Kamara ran against the best defenses on the schedule---their averages were statistically identical!!!
No matter how hard you attempt to deny that FACT--IT'S JUST TRUE.

And it's a FAIR AND EQUAL COMPARISON!

Kamara had a greater YPC against the weaker defenses.
So, he was more likely to break those long runs against the Kentucky's and other weak sisters on the schedule.
I'll make it simpler...I DON'T CARE ABOUT JUGGLING ARBITRARY DEFENSIVE RANKINGS. When they both lined up and played the exact same teams Kamara comes out well ahead. I think you know this which is why you are holding to the above narrative. In fact when pushing through the smoke even that narrative cracks. If the best Hurd can do is hold serve against Kamara's output in X subset (notice how you have to juggle the numbers to make it fit?) then, at best, you're arguing Hurd can equal Kamara's floor production in that subset. From there Kamara leaves him for dead. Are you trying to prop up Hurd by actually arguing he consistently has underperformed against the weaker teams/players he should be exploiting when given the opportunity? One more time we don't need subsets because we aren't trying to extrapolate comparisons between different players on different teams playing different competition. Hurd and Kamara split carries in the exact same games (18) against the exact same defenses. Again those numbers are

Hurd 357 carries, 1630 yards, 4.5ypc
Kamara 149 carries, 851 yards, 5.7ypc

In fact due to this little discussion I've, if anything, come to believe Kamara may be worthy of even more appreciation than I'd given him previously. For instance, were you aware that the player voted #20 and #14 in the NFL's top 100 over the last two years (in and of itself worth noting) only had 10 games of double digit carries his whole career here? Yeah, I know, WTF, right? But when actually afforded the luxury of, you know, getting the damn ball he averaged 6.5ypc in those games?(144c, 931y) Now, and this matters, it wasn't just a couple big runs skewing the overall yardage results. In 7 of those 10 games he had a ypc of 6 or better and only one was below Hurd's 4.5ypc average. Hell, he had 4 over 7ypc and 3 over 8! What's important, vitally important, is it doesn't matter a dingo's dangle who the opponent is with numbers like that. 70% of games with at least 10 carries resulted in at least 6ypc? Even though he only got more than 15 carries once in his entire career he still got 100yds in 5 games. (ok, I counted one 99y game in that) Marinate in that for a minute.

Now that's just what Kamara did when Butch could be bothered to give him at least 10 carries. (if you were curious the most he ever got in a game was 18, he went 6.2 in that one) Regardless of competition and despite having 33 games to work with as opposed to a mere 10 for Kamara (note we're still only counting those 10 games, not total games which would give Alvin even more) Hurd managed 6ypc in 5 games. Ouch. But it's not all about ypc you say? How about total yardage per game? Well as previously stated Alvin literally only had 10 games his whole career with double digit carries with the lone 18c day being the outlier. In fact Kamara had a grand total of 5 games with at least 15 attempts. 5...that's it. And yet as mentioned above he had 5 100yd games. Pretty amazing when you think about it. (which you very much should)

I've stated before I'm no Hurd hater and nothing in all this research has moved the needle much with me regarding him as a RB for better or worse. I damn sure have a better appreciation for Kamara though. What he did with the scraps left to him regarding carry opportunities is pretty damned impressive. He doesn't supplant the likes of Webb/Lewis/Garner on my all time RB list but he moved way up.
 
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DaUndergroundMan

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This is precisely the point!

Using the YPC stat as the sole standard for evaluating RBs is NOT the BEST we can do! .
The entire objective of using statistical analysis is to produce the most OBJECTIVE environment for making FAIR and ACCURATE comparisons.
YOU MUST be willing to go into the trees in order to allow for the obstacles preventing the establishment of an OBJECTIVE and FAIR comparison.
The data I put up earlier in this thread was my attempt to do just that and create an objective, fair, and accurate comparison.

I threw Walker's career 5.3 YPC average out there on purpose to see who'd bite....
Here's some numbers for you that illustrate my point perfectly!

Herschel 994 carries for 5259 yards and 5.3 YPC
Greg Pruitt 393 carries for 2939 yards and 7.5 YPC

Pruitt AVERAGED 2.2 YPC more than Walker did over his 3 year career
Walker carried the ball 2.8 times more than Pruitt did over his 3 year career

Hurd 589 carries for 2635 yards and 4.5 YPC
Kamara 210 carries for 1294 yards and 6.2 YPC

Kamara AVERAGED 1.7 YPC more than HURD did over his 2 year career
HURD carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did over his career

If you want to tell me that KAMARA was BETTER than HURD...based on YPC....
then you must conclude that Pruitt was BETTER than Walker...based on YPC...

This reality is EXACTLY why I took the time to publish all that data above in this thread.
Using YPC alone is NOT an objective, fair comparison between Hurd and Kamara because of the HUGE difference
between the # of carries over their respective careers.

The data I published earlier in this thread undeniably shows that HURD and KAMARA were dang equal against the top 50 defenses they played against while at UT.
If anything, the statistical nod goes to HURD because he carried the ball 2.8 times more than KAMARA did in those games. 301/108 = 2.8

Kamara gets the nod when they played inferior teams on their schedule.

Hurd and Kamara NEVER played together in 2016 against the inferior defenses that season.

However, they did play against the better defenses together in 2016 with the same OL and in those games they were virtually equal in production.
The same can be said for the 2015 season--virtually equal production against the top 50 defenses on the schedule.

I'm NOT saying that Hurd was better....and I'm not saying that Kamara was better.
They both were very good in their different assignments at RB.
Well done!
 

DaUndergroundMan

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Hurd was good. People that fall in love with percentages are those kids that got excited when they saw the back of a baseball card read ".336 BA" while ignoring the small sample size of 113 At-bats.

It's 38 hits. 38 hits. Which is only 38 hits... total. When you are that everyday guy, and you carry that load, everyday, the truth gets told.
 

MikeVol44

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I'll make it simpler...I DON'T CARE ABOUT JUGGLING ARBITRARY DEFENSIVE RANKINGS.
When they both lined up and played the exact same teams Kamara comes out well ahead. .
NO...this is NOT TRUE AT ALL.
Kamara's YPC for the season is higher....but NOT FOR EACH GAME.


In which GAMES does Kamara have a higher YPC?

2015 top 50 Defenses are underlined
KAMARA


BOWLING GREEN 15 carries for 144 yards 9.6 YPC
Oklahoma 4 carries for 4 yards 1.0 YPC
West. Carolina 7 carries for 47 yards 6.7 YPC
Florida 5 carries for 16 yards for 3.2 YPC
Arkansas 7 carries for 36 yards for 5.1 YPC
Georgia 7 carries for 8 yards for 1.1 YPC
Alabama 5 carries for 21 yards for 4.2 YPC
KENTUCKY 4 carries for 70 yards for 17.5 YPC
South Carolina 4 carries for 30 yards for 7.5 YPC
North Texas 15 carries for 127 yards for 8.5 YPC
Mizzou 7 carries for 43 yards for 6.1 YPC

Vandy 16 carries for 99 yards for 6.2 YPC
NWEST 11 carries for 53 yards for 4.8 YPC


Season: 107 carries for 698 yards = 6.5 YPC
TOP 50 62 carries for 280 yards = 4.52 YPC

HURD

BOWLING GREEN 23 carries for 123 yards 5.3 YPC
Oklahoma 24 carries for 106 yards 4.4 YPC top 50
West. Carolina 11 carries for 68 yards 6.2 YPC
Florida 28 carries for 102 yards and 3.6 YPC

Arkansas 19 carries for 90 yards for 4.7 YPC
Georgia 21 carries for 80 yards for 3.8 YPC

Alabama 18 carries for 92 yards for 5.1 YPC
KENTUCKY 18 carries for 61 yards for 3.4 YPC
South Carolina 23 carries for 90 yards for 3.9 YPC
North Texas 15 carries for 72 yards for 4.8 YPC
Mizzou 34 carries for 151 yards for 4.4 YPC
Vandy 19 carries for 120 yards for 6.3 YPC
NWEST 24 carries for 130 yards for 5.4 YPC

Season: 277 carries for 1285 yards for 4.6 YPC
TOP 50 187 carries for 871 yards for 4.66 YPC

It's obvious that Kamara had the greater potential to break long runs.
That makes him DIFFERENT--NOT BETTER!
No one can say he was BETTER because HURD proved his toughness and durability while actually having a HIGHER YPC average against the tougher teams.

2016 games in which both players participated--all teams had defenses in top 50

KAMARA
Appy State 6 carries for 21 yards 3.5 YPC
Virg. Tech 3 carries for 9 yards 3.0 YPC
Ohio 11 carries for 67 yards for 6.1 YPC
Florida 2 carries for 6 yards for 3.0 YPC
Georgia 16 carries for 62 yards for 3.9 YPC
Alabama 8 carries for 21 yards and 2.6 YPC

total: 46 carries for 186 yards = 4.0 YPC average

HURD
Appy State 28 carries for 110 yards = 3.9 YPC
Vir. Tech 22 carries for 99 yards = 4.5 YPC

Ohio 15 carries for 61 yards = 4.1 YPC
Florida 26 carries for 95 yards = 3.7 YPC
UGA 10 carries for 42 yards = 4.2 YPC

Bama 13 carries for 28 yards = 2.2 YPC

total: 114 carries for 435 yards = 3.8 YPC average

MANY on here have tried to use the 2016 season to say that it PROVES beyond doubt that Kamara is the better back.

But it does NO SUCH THING.
2016 head to head matchups in same games shows that their YPC average to be practically the same (within 5% of each other)!

Over their careers--when playing TOP 50 DEFENSES--their YPC averages are the SAME at 4.3 YPC.

It is no secret that Kamara had the higher YPC average overall...but when you break the AVERAGES down
into their equal parts---KAMARA beat Hurd hands down ONLY in those games AGAINST WEAKER COMPETITION!

That doesn't make either RB BETTER--an UNTRUE claim on here that many have made.
It makes them DIFFERENT...contributing to the TEAM in different ways.

Many have MISTAKENLY pointed to Kamara's 2016 numbers as a demonstration of his superiority.
That claim is just not true! In the same games against the same competition--his number were a meager 5% better than Hurd's in 2016.

If anyone want the stats I've compiled on a spreadsheet--post your email and I'll send them
 
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hndog609

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NO...this is NOT TRUE AT ALL.
Kamara's YPC for the season is higher....but NOT FOR EACH GAME.


In which GAMES does Kamara have a higher YPC?

2015 top 50 Defenses are underlined
KAMARA


BOWLING GREEN 15 carries for 144 yards 9.6 YPC
Oklahoma 4 carries for 4 yards 1.0 YPC
West. Carolina 7 carries for 47 yards 6.7 YPC
Florida 5 carries for 16 yards for 3.2 YPC
Arkansas 7 carries for 36 yards for 5.1 YPC
Georgia 7 carries for 8 yards for 1.1 YPC
Alabama 5 carries for 21 yards for 4.2 YPC
KENTUCKY 4 carries for 70 yards for 17.5 YPC
South Carolina 4 carries for 30 yards for 7.5 YPC
North Texas 15 carries for 127 yards for 8.5 YPC
Mizzou 7 carries for 43 yards for 6.1 YPC

Vandy 16 carries for 99 yards for 6.2 YPC
NWEST 11 carries for 53 yards for 4.8 YPC


Season: 107 carries for 698 yards = 6.5 YPC
TOP 50 62 carries for 280 yards = 4.52 YPC

HURD

BOWLING GREEN 23 carries for 123 yards 5.3 YPC
Oklahoma 24 carries for 106 yards 4.4 YPC top 50
West. Carolina 11 carries for 68 yards 6.2 YPC
Florida 28 carries for 102 yards and 3.6 YPC

Arkansas 19 carries for 90 yards for 4.7 YPC
Georgia 21 carries for 80 yards for 3.8 YPC

Alabama 18 carries for 92 yards for 5.1 YPC
KENTUCKY 18 carries for 61 yards for 3.4 YPC
South Carolina 23 carries for 90 yards for 3.9 YPC
North Texas 15 carries for 72 yards for 4.8 YPC
Mizzou 34 carries for 151 yards for 4.4 YPC
Vandy 19 carries for 120 yards for 6.3 YPC
NWEST 24 carries for 130 yards for 5.4 YPC

Season: 277 carries for 1285 yards for 4.6 YPC
TOP 50 187 carries for 871 yards for 4.66 YPC

It's obvious that Kamara had the greater potential to break long runs.
That makes him DIFFERENT--NOT BETTER!
No one can say he was BETTER because HURD proved his toughness and durability while actually having a HIGHER YPC average against the tougher teams.

2016 games in which both players participated--all teams had defenses in top 50

KAMARA
Appy State 6 carries for 21 yards 3.5 YPC
Virg. Tech 3 carries for 9 yards 3.0 YPC
Ohio 11 carries for 67 yards for 6.1 YPC
Florida 2 carries for 6 yards for 3.0 YPC
Georgia 16 carries for 62 yards for 3.9 YPC
Alabama 8 carries for 21 yards and 2.6 YPC

total: 46 carries for 186 yards = 4.0 YPC average

HURD
Appy State 28 carries for 110 yards = 3.9 YPC
Vir. Tech 22 carries for 99 yards = 4.5 YPC

Ohio 15 carries for 61 yards = 4.1 YPC
Florida 26 carries for 95 yards = 3.7 YPC
UGA 10 carries for 42 yards = 4.2 YPC

Bama 13 carries for 28 yards = 2.2 YPC

total: 114 carries for 435 yards = 3.8 YPC average

MANY on here have tried to use the 2016 season to say that it PROVES beyond doubt that Kamara is the better back.

But it does NO SUCH THING.
2016 head to head matchups in same games shows that their YPC average to be practically the same (within 5% of each other)!

Over their careers--when playing TOP 50 DEFENSES--their YPC averages are the SAME at 4.3 YPC.

It is no secret that Kamara had the higher YPC average overall...but when you break the AVERAGES down
into their equal parts---KAMARA beat Hurd hands down ONLY in those games AGAINST WEAKER COMPETITION!

That doesn't make either RB BETTER--an UNTRUE claim on here that many have made.
It makes them DIFFERENT...contributing to the TEAM in different ways.

Many have MISTAKENLY pointed to Kamara's 2016 numbers as a demonstration of his superiority.
That claim is just not true! In the same games against the same competition--his number were a meager 5% better than Hurd's in 2016.

If anyone want the stats I've compiled on a spreadsheet--post your email and I'll send them
I gotta appreciate the work ethic but that was a lot to reaffirm that in their careers against the same teams Hurd averaged 4.4ypc and Kamara 5.8ypc. How you or anyone wants to push or pull (in either direction) that fact it's still the inescapable starting point. I'm just content to have discovered in actually looking deeper how much Kamara accomplished with such limited opportunity. It's almost football time so off-season banter can be put aside for a few months.

Go Vols.
 

MikeVol44

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I gotta appreciate the work ethic but that was a lot to reaffirm that in their careers against the same teams Hurd averaged 4.4ypc and Kamara 5.8ypc. How you or anyone wants to push or pull (in either direction) that fact it's still the inescapable starting point.

Go Vols.
YPC is a statistical average.
It's not the end of the discussion--it's the beginning.

Go back and read your entire rant when I just threw out Walker's career YPC average.
Herschel has the LOWEST YPC average among the NCAA's GREATEST RBs.

You went off for an entire paragraph explaining WHY that was so.

Simply stated--Walker carried the ball 994 times in 3 years over 33 games--not including Bowl games.
That's a whopping 30 carries per game average. And is exactly WHY his YPC is LOW when compared to other backs.
HE carried the entire load for UGA--and carried the ball between 2-3 times MORE PER GAME than Pruitt did.

Now apply the same statistical truth to the Hurd and Kamara discussion.

The SAME FACTS are true when comparing Hurd with Kamara.
You just can't seem to understand that fact.

GO VOLS!
 

hndog609

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YPC is a statistical average.
It's not the end of the discussion--it's the beginning.

Go back and read your entire rant when I just threw out Walker's career YPC average.
Herschel has the LOWEST YPC average among the NCAA's GREATEST RBs.

You went off for an entire paragraph explaining WHY that was so.

Simply stated--Walker carried the ball 994 times in 3 years over 33 games--not including Bowl games.
That's a whopping 30 carries per game average. And is exactly WHY his YPC is LOW when compared to other backs.
HE carried the entire load for UGA--and carried the ball between 2-3 times MORE PER GAME than Pruitt did.

Now apply the same statistical truth to the Hurd and Kamara discussion.

The SAME FACTS are true when comparing Hurd with Kamara.
You just can't seem to understand that fact.

GO VOLS!
I was going to have my previous post be the last but since the above was basically a direct request/call out it needs addressed. I was going to give an actual explanation of how carries work but since it's obvious you aren't so much having a discussion as defending a bunker position I figured it not worth the time and you probably wouldn't care anyway. So let's just skip to the application you asked for.

Alvin has 210 carries in his UT career. That's an absolute number so that's pretty much that. How can we best compare that to Hurd's 589? Mind you my first inclination (and probably the most fair) was to only include games during times they both played together. (same OL, same opp defense) but I figured what the hell, let's have all 33 of Hurd's games in play. (good thing for Hurd too since half the games came from '14) So what we're going to do is take the 10 best ypc games from Hurd's whole career +1 to compare to Kamara's raw, un-cherrypicked career carries.

Hurds top 10 career best ypc games total 194 carries. The next highest ypc game that came closest to reaching 210 was a 15 carry game so it only makes 209 but I think that's plenty close enough to 210 for our purposes. So, again, cherrypicking the best ypc performances of Hurd's career that add up to Kamara's straight up career carries.

Hurd 209-1186-5.7
Kamara 210-1294-6.2

Really though the one stat that arguably jumps out the most is the yardage games. Now remember Hurd had 30 games with at least 10 carries and 14 games of at least 20. Kamara only had 10 games of at least 10 carries, all of 5 of 15 and never more than 18 in a game his whole career. Even with this huge disparity in opportunity here's the top 6 rushing games 2014-2016

151 Hurd
144 Kamara
130 Hurd
128 Kamara
127 Kamara
127 Kamara

This does it for me on this discussion I just thought some might find these numbers interesting as I hadn't seen them posted before.
 

XknoxvolsX

The only people who dislike winners are losers!
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Just my opinion here..... But, I think, hands down, Kamara was the better back. Way better. I understand the statistical analysis and all, that is important, but just the eye test alone tells me that Kamara was a much better back.

This, regardless of the per game carries against inferior opponents. Hurd was an extremely choppy runner. He was not fluid at all. Now, if we had run the I formation, maybe, just maybe he would have been better. I understand what a lot of you Hurd fans are saying in relation to getting ypc and ypg pertaining to getting hit five yards in the backfield. But, there were a lot of times Hurd was tackled that he should have kept going. That Georgia play where he trucks the DB is a prime example!

Just my two cents. I'll now take my dog and jump back on the porch.
 

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