Iran

[85SugarVol]

The eventual Trump-Iranian windfall for the regime gonna make Obama’s “pallets of cash” look…

 

[Orangeburst]

I would be shocked if we are even close to ageeing to such an agreement.
Time is not on their side,

 

[lawgator1]

I would be shocked if we are even close to ageeing to such an agreement.
Time is not on their side,

Not on Trump's and the GOP.

 

[Delmar]

Why just brazenly lie

View attachment 833744

Heard they’ve created a new cabinet position just for Mike Johnson. Leg Humper In Chief.

 

[NashVol11]

 

[Carl Pickens]

Does the dollar amount of frozen assets change with each new tweet?

 

[MontyPython]

Lol. Take your meds

Believe Trump at your own peril.

Per PT Barnum, "There's a sucker born every minute."

 

[Tin Man]

FUBAR

 

[Delmar]

Believe Trump at your own peril.

Per PT Barnum, "There's a sucker born every minute."

That pretty well sums up Trump’s entire career in business and politics. Banks, contractors, politicians, multiple wives and MAGA voters have all fallen victim to the con for years. It never ceases to amaze me. “Fool me once……”

Of course, the wives aren’t a mystery. Money will make one ignore lots of things.

 

[Orangeslice13]

Believe Trump at your own peril.

Per PT Barnum, "There's a sucker born every minute."

I prefer “tell big enough lies often enough and people will believe it”

Anyone know who said that?

 

[Orangeburst]

I prefer “tell big enough lies often enough and people will believe it”

Anyone know who said that?

George Costanza

 

[Carl Pickens]

Does anyone really believe Iran will give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons?
Everyone bitchin’ over the straight being shut down should realize that if Iran ever does get nukes they’ll shut it down again and dare other countries to do something about it.
As unpopular as it is, finishing them off is the best move at this point…IMO

 

[kiddiedoc]

Does anyone really believe Iran will give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons?
Everyone bitchin’ over the straight being shut down should realize that if Iran ever does get nukes they’ll shut it down again and dare other countries to do something about it.
As unpopular as it is, finishing them off is the best move at this point…IMO

In theory, I agree. However, I don't believe the general population has the means/arms to organize and oust the regime and IRGC. So, "finishing them off" would almost certainly require a land invasion and occupation by US troops, which would be very unpopular and costly.

 

[Orangeburst]

Where Else Can The World Get Energy After Iran’s Blockade Of Hormuz?

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has inspired a feverish search for alternative supplies of energy that can be brought online quickly.

www.forbes.com

I wonder how quickly Venezuela output could be ramped up. Probably few years for big gains, but between increased OPEC output sans SoH, and other nations chomping at bit looking for good money, it isnt far fetched to think oil from the Persian Gulf would be necessary in future at all. Of course, then the pendulum swings back and cheaper oil will be back in play.

Capitalism at its finest. 20mbpd is ruff though.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I would be shocked if we are even close to ageeing to such an agreement.
Time is not on their side,

It's on no one's side, dude.

 

[Orangeburst]

Shutting Iran’s oil wells may be straightforward – but the consequences are not

Closing down oil wells can cause long-term damage, which is difficult to reverse.

theconversation.com

in matter of weeks dependent on storage capacity, Iran is screwed. The world can absorb the complete loss of Iranian oil.

According to the Fed Reserve, economic impacts of closure of SoH is estimated quarterly. The quarter is already baked.

What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy

The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the...

www.dallasfed.org

 

[FLVOL_79]

FFS..

Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions.

Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

He seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

www.theatlantic.com

What an embarassing sh@tshow the Trump administration is.

 

[EasternVol]

Does anyone really believe Iran will give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons?
Everyone bitchin’ over the straight being shut down should realize that if Iran ever does get nukes they’ll shut it down again and dare other countries to do something about it.
As unpopular as it is, finishing them off is the best move at this point…IMO

Why would they shut down the strait if they're not at war?

 

[trout-vol]

Believe Trump at your own peril.

Per PT Barnum, "There's a sucker born every minute."

pt never said that. How ironic

 

[trout-vol]

FFS..

Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions.

Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

He seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

www.theatlantic.com

What an embarassing sh@tshow the Trump administration is.

You really have no clue. Kiddie pools are deeper than your political insight

 

[MontyPython]

Does anyone really believe Iran will give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons?
Everyone bitchin’ over the straight being shut down should realize that if Iran ever does get nukes they’ll shut it down again and dare other countries to do something about it.
As unpopular as it is, finishing them off is the best move at this point…IMO

47 years later, Iran no nukes.

 

[Carl Pickens]

In theory, I agree. However, I don't believe the general population has the means/arms to organize and oust the regime and IRGC. So, "finishing them off" would almost certainly require a land invasion and occupation by US troops, which would be very unpopular and costly.

You’re right and I don’t think the USA has the stones to do it.

 

[Carl Pickens]

Why would they shut down the strait if they're not at war?

If Iran permanently controls the Strait of Hormuz, it would create a catastrophic global economic crisis and fundamentally upend geopolitical power. Because nearly 20% of the world’s oil, 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 33% of seaborne fertilizers pass through this waterway, long-term control by Tehran would have cascading consequences. [1, 2, 3]

1. Massive Financial Windfall for Iran
By controlling the choke point, Iran could unilaterally impose massive "tolls" (with recent proposals reaching up to \(\$2\) million per ship) on commercial vessels. This would allow Tehran to generate tens of billions of dollars annually, potentially matching or exceeding its historical oil export earnings and vastly increasing its regional influence. [1]

2. Skyrocketing Energy Prices and Global Inflation
If Iran fully implements a tolling system or selectively shuts off the waterway, global oil and gas prices would surge. Historical modeling and recent estimates show that a major supply disruption could drive crude prices past \(\$150\) per barrel. This would lead to spiking costs for transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods worldwide. [1, 2, 3]

3. Severe Food Insecurity
The Persian Gulf is a major source of global fertilizers and sulfur. Disrupting the movement of these commodities would threaten global agricultural production, significantly driving up grocery and food prices across the globe. [1, 2]

4. Shipping Rerouting and Insurance Costs
Even if Iran doesn't completely block the strait, instituting tolls or forcing vessels to navigate checkpoints would drive up "war risk" insurance premiums. Shippers would be forced to pay exorbitant fees or spend millions to bypass the strait entirely if possible.[1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

5. Push for Strait Bypasses
To escape Iranian dominance, Gulf states (like Saudi Arabia and the UAE) would likely fast-track multi-billion-dollar projects to construct pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, routing oil to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean. [1, 2]

6. Geopolitical Turmoil and Military Conflict
Gaining permanent control over an international waterway is highly contested under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The international community—led by the United States and the European Union—views such measures as illegal and unacceptable, meaning that a permanent Iranian takeover could spark ongoing naval confrontations, a strict trade blockade, or broader military conflict. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

 

[Carl Pickens]

47 years later, Iran no nukes.

You do realize they’ve been working toward nukes…. Surely you’re not this naive.

 

[EasternVol]

If Iran permanently controls the Strait of Hormuz, it would create a catastrophic global economic crisis and fundamentally upend geopolitical power. Because nearly 20% of the world’s oil, 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 33% of seaborne fertilizers pass through this waterway, long-term control by Tehran would have cascading consequences. [1, 2, 3]

1. Massive Financial Windfall for Iran
By controlling the choke point, Iran could unilaterally impose massive "tolls" (with recent proposals reaching up to \(\$2\) million per ship) on commercial vessels. This would allow Tehran to generate tens of billions of dollars annually, potentially matching or exceeding its historical oil export earnings and vastly increasing its regional influence. [1]

2. Skyrocketing Energy Prices and Global Inflation
If Iran fully implements a tolling system or selectively shuts off the waterway, global oil and gas prices would surge. Historical modeling and recent estimates show that a major supply disruption could drive crude prices past \(\$150\) per barrel. This would lead to spiking costs for transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods worldwide. [1, 2, 3]

3. Severe Food Insecurity
The Persian Gulf is a major source of global fertilizers and sulfur. Disrupting the movement of these commodities would threaten global agricultural production, significantly driving up grocery and food prices across the globe. [1, 2]

4. Shipping Rerouting and Insurance Costs
Even if Iran doesn't completely block the strait, instituting tolls or forcing vessels to navigate checkpoints would drive up "war risk" insurance premiums. Shippers would be forced to pay exorbitant fees or spend millions to bypass the strait entirely if possible.[1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

5. Push for Strait Bypasses
To escape Iranian dominance, Gulf states (like Saudi Arabia and the UAE) would likely fast-track multi-billion-dollar projects to construct pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, routing oil to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean. [1, 2]

6. Geopolitical Turmoil and Military Conflict
Gaining permanent control over an international waterway is highly contested under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The international community—led by the United States and the European Union—views such measures as illegal and unacceptable, meaning that a permanent Iranian takeover could spark ongoing naval confrontations, a strict trade blockade, or broader military conflict. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

That doesn't answer the question. Iran's not going to end up with recognized control of the SoH.