If we go 8-4?

[sjt18]

Except...CMR doesn't really have the same record as CPF even in his early days. CPF end game mediocrity was at least balanced with a NC, back to back SEC Championships and being having the highest winning percentage of any active coach. UGA is next level on tolerating mediocrity. I feel like CMR is just limping along helped by the fact the normal powers in the SEC East have been down.

Fulmer had two careers... and should have listened to his wife before starting the second one. In the first one, he was hungry and flanked by Cut and Chavis. After a few years of frustration he finally turned the tables on UF and Spurrier.... then Cut left and the decline began. Something about the chemistry was gone without him. Fulmer got more involved and it only got worse.

I agree (and am pleased) that UGA is tolerating consistent underachievement.... but UT did also. The only think Richt hasn't done yet is post losing seasons.

 

[LWSVOL]

All freshmen and sophomores? That's not remotely true. On both offense and defense we're projected to start at least 7 players who are juniors or seniors. That's 14 of 22 starters or 63% of our starters that will be upperclassmen. We're certainly gonna have a lot of significant contributions coming from our sophomores and a few from incoming freshmen. But it's inaccurate to say all our players are freshmen and sophomores.

65% of the roster is freshmen and sophomores. Need to keep starters healthy all year long

 

[LWSVOL]

If you are right... then Jones is not the guy.

I would say that the percentages are aligned with you and he likely ends up not being the guy.. don't know how you define "the guy"

Keep in mind, Tennessee has won 2 SEC championships in the last 25 years. So what does the guy have to do to be the guy?

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

I would say that the percentages are aligned with you and he likely ends up not being the guy.. don't know how you define "the guy"

Keep in mind, Tennessee has won 2 SEC championships in the last 25 years. So what does the guy have to do to be the guy?

The following needs to be done, and done consistently:

-At least have us in the talk for the SEC championship
-ranked Top 15'ish
-relevant
-go to high-end bowl games

People aren't going to like this analogy, but he basically needs to get us AT LEAST to "Georgia" status. If he can't do that, then he's not good enough to be the coach here. There is no excuse as to why Georgia can consistently be all of the things mentioned above and we can't.

 

[Catbone]

Bama is a loss.

We win 1 of UGA,FL,OK,Arky

We win the rest.

8-4

 

[KBVol]

65% of the roster is freshmen and sophomores. Need to keep starters healthy all year long

But a lot of posters reflexively write on here that we're "all freshmen and sophomores" for some reason when it's not true. When anyone takes the time the look at who our key contributors and projected starters are on both sides of the ball, we have juniors and seniors all over the place.

I'm in no way saying that we're not young at spots and that some of our more talented players aren't sophomores and (I presume) incoming freshmen, but for people not to acknowledge that liklely 14 of our 22 starters are juniors, seniors or even RS seniors is willfully ignorant.

 

[Ericvol2096]

The following needs to be done, and done consistently:

-At least have us in the talk for the SEC championship
-ranked Top 15'ish
-relevant
-go to high-end bowl games

People aren't going to like this analogy, but he basically needs to get us AT LEAST to "Georgia" status. If he can't do that, then he's not good enough to be the coach here. There is no excuse as to why Georgia can consistently be all of the things mentioned above and we can't.

Agreed by year four we should always be in the hunt for the SEC East title late in the year and relevant in the top 20. Not saying we can't this year, just that year 4 is when it HAS to be in place and stay in place from that time forward.

We need to be winning 8-10 regular season games every year and once every 5 to 10 years get the breaks that lead to an SEC Title.

I see Butch as having us on that path, if that is your expectation I'm not sure why there would be much worry...it seems we are well on our way.

 

[LWSVOL]

The following needs to be done, and done consistently:

-At least have us in the talk for the SEC championship
-ranked Top 15'ish
-relevant
-go to high-end bowl games

People aren't going to like this analogy, but he basically needs to get us AT LEAST to "Georgia" status. If he can't do that, then he's not good enough to be the coach here. There is no excuse as to why Georgia can consistently be all of the things mentioned above and we can't.

I agree that those are the components that make an SEC program successful..

 

[zero-sum]

Agreed by year four we should always be in the hunt for the SEC East title late in the year and relevant in the top 20. Not saying we can't this year, just that year 4 is when it HAS to be in place and stay in place from that time forward.

We need to be winning 8-10 regular season games every year and once every 5 to 10 years get the breaks that lead to an SEC Title.

I see Butch as having us on that path, if that is your expectation I'm not sure why there would be much worry...it seems we are well on our way.

A Conf title every 5-10 yrs on the back of breaks??? Nonsense

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

A Conf title every 5-10 yrs on the back of breaks??? Nonsense

This is the SEC bruh. We don't get to win our conference by beating a different flavor cupcake every week. The SEC Championship is "National Championship Jr."

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Mathematically: Vols win the SEC-East every 3.5 years (giving 1 year to GA, 1 year to a rejuvenated FL, and 0.5 year to an over-achieving Mizzou). Vols win the SEC CG 50% of the time they play in it. That == SEC Champs once every 7 years. Mathematically.

First we gotta get back to standing even with GA and FL, and somewhat above Mizzou. We're close to that. Maybe this year.

Then we gotta, with help from GA, FL, and Mizzou (maybe even a little from SC), fight our way back to SEC-E being on par with SEC-W. Some of that is beyond our control, but I think we're doing our part.

Bottom line is, we're not far from being back to November games in Atlanta every 3-4 years, and SEC Championships every 6-8. That's where the proud Vols program belongs.

 

[NCFisher]

If we were 8-4 and lost the SECC by a TD and won a bowl, I'd be only slightly disappointed in 4 losses, so long as those 4 losses were slugfests. UT would have excellent recruiting momentum from a season of discernible progress.

If no SECC game and more than one of those losses has a 10 point spread, I'm disappointed and taking back some goodwill from the staff. A bowl loss would need a damn good 2016 to punctuate that CBJ can coach.

 

[NCFisher]

But a lot of posters reflexively write on here that we're "all freshmen and sophomores" for some reason when it's not true. When anyone takes the time the look at who our key contributors and projected starters are on both sides of the ball, we have juniors and seniors all over the place.

And that we have a crap ton of 2015 sophomores with considerable game experience, and not just coming off the bench for the first time.

 

[zero-sum]

This is the SEC bruh. We don't get to win our conference by beating a different flavor cupcake every week.

So bruh, you're content w/ one every 5-10yrs? And that one being won with the help of breaks along the way no less? No thanks.

 

[zero-sum]

Mathematically: Vols win the SEC-East every 3.5 years (giving 1 year to GA, 1 year to a rejuvenated FL, and 0.5 year to an over-achieving Mizzou). Vols win the SEC CG 50% of the time they play in it. That == SEC Champs once every 7 years. Mathematically.

First we gotta get back to standing even with GA and FL, and somewhat above Mizzou. We're close to that. Maybe this year.

Then we gotta, with help from GA, FL, and Mizzou (maybe even a little from SC), fight our way back to SEC-E being on par with SEC-W. Some of that is beyond our control, but I think we're doing our part.

Bottom line is, we're not far from being back to November games in Atlanta every 3-4 years, and SEC Championships every 6-8. That's where the proud Vols program belongs.

I respect an analytical approach but we can throw that out with the bath water.

If we go back say to '92 a quick review reveals that from '92 to '07 (16yrs) we made 5 trips to the SEC Conf gm.

To break it down further ...
'92-'99
The East was rep'd by Florida winning 4 of 6 and Tenn going 2 for 2.
Rep'ing the West Alabama 2 of 5, and one each for Arky, Auburn and Miss St.

'00-'14
East: FL 3 of 4, Georgia 2 of 5, Mizzou 0 for 2, So Car 0 for 1, and Tennessee 0 for 3 (last '07).
West: Alabama 3 of 4, Arkansas 0 for 2, Auburn 3 of 4, LSU 4 of 5.

Before all h*ll broke loose on "The Hill" we were avg'g a SEC Conf gm appearance once in lil' over every 3 yrs.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I respect an analytical approach but we can throw that out with the bath water.

...

Before all h*ll broke loose on "The Hill" we were avg'g a SEC Conf gm appearance once in lil' over every 3 yrs.

Yep, and we won 2 of the 5, as close to "half" as you can get with an odd number.

So you've helped 'prove' the analytical approach (SEC-E every 3-4 years, SEC Champs every 6-8) by layering it on top of what really happened '92 to '07 (SEC-E every 3.1 years, SEC Champs every 8), and it fitting perfectly.

 

[KBVol]

And that we have a crap ton of 2015 sophomores with considerable game experience, and not just coming off the bench for the first time.

I haven't looked at all teams, but I know we compare very favorably with both Georgia and Bama in terms of starters and classification. And to your point, with the help of those talented sophomores, we return more overall starts and starters than any other team in the conference. Certainly not gonna predict and 10-2 season and an SEC Championship, but I think we're poised with this roster to compete at a high level within the conference this year. I think how high ultimately depends on how good a coach/coaching staff we have on Saturdays.

 

[mmoosem]

As I've said a number of times, Kiffin nor Dooley were good enough to fix UT's football program... but they didn't break it. Fulmer did.

:banghead2:Come on man, Fulmer left 11/3/2008. That was 6+ years ago. Give it a rest. Unfortunately for all Vol fans we had 4 years of less than mediocre coaches and players. A blind man can see that UT has turned the corner (even paul finebaum has said as much,not that his opinion matters ). CBJ and his staff have recruited extremely well and the future looks extremely bright. The attitude of the players is one that they "expect" to win against whoever they are playing. That is something was missing for way too long.
IMHO we are on the way back. We are so close you can feel it in the air. 8/4 or 9/3 this year is expected. A couple more years and the sky is the limit.
Every post on this thread is only an opinion (including mine). That is what is so exciting! You can read the passion in the lines. I can hardly wait for the call " IT'S FOOTBALL TIME IN TENNESSEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

GBO epper:epper:

 

[zero-sum]

Yep, and we won 2 of the 5, as close to "half" as you can get with an odd number.

So you've helped 'prove' the analytical approach (SEC-E every 3-4 years, SEC Champs every 6-8) by layering it on top of what really happened '92 to '07 (SEC-E every 3.1 years, SEC Champs every 8), and it fitting perfectly.

If we are forecasting, yes.

The number of appearances are reasonable, titles to show / time between are not.

 

[terrypedigo]

I would say fire Butch

lol: now thats real funny.lol:

 

[sjt18]

I would say that the percentages are aligned with you and he likely ends up not being the guy.. don't know how you define "the guy"

Keep in mind, Tennessee has won 2 SEC championships in the last 25 years. So what does the guy have to do to be the guy?

Apparently that depends on who is defining it... and I'm not trying to be a smart aleck here.

For me, the guy is a championship caliber coach. Unless we get to at least a 16 team playoff winning a NC will always be a bonus... not necessarily an expectation. It would be nice to have Saban like success in that regard... but there aren't many Sabans, Meyers, or Carrolls out there. OTOH, Auburn has won national championships and so has LSU. I do not honestly believe they have built-in advantages over UT. I would argue that LSU under Miles and Aub under Chizk didn't win because of their HC's coaching ability.

All that said, I think "the guy" is someone who can keep UT in the conversation for the East and SEC every year, win the SEC every 5 or 6 years on average, and appear in about twice as many CG's as he wins... so about once every 3 years on average. Winning the SEC will almost certainly put a team in the playoff... so winning 50% of those would be a pretty big accomplishment. Net results over a decade: 100-110 wins, 3-4 SEC East titles, 1 or 2 SEC titles, and one NC (though I'm honestly not as wound up over the last one).


It seems pretty apparent that many fans, admin officials, and important boosters would be satisfied with much less than that. But I just don't see why anyone would put the kind of money and devotion into something like this... and not expect big results.

 

[sjt18]

This is the SEC bruh. We don't get to win our conference by beating a different flavor cupcake every week. The SEC Championship is "National Championship Jr."

I think his objection was your apparent suggestion that we should hope for "luck" to win the SEC. Bama hasn't done what they've done because they were lucky... nor has Auburn for that matter. Mizzou is an undertalented, overachieving, and VERY well coached football program... which often looks like "luck".

I think Jones himself would bristle at the suggestion that winning championships is anything but the product of hard work, consistency, and determination.

 

[sjt18]

:banghead2:Come on man, Fulmer left 11/3/2008. That was 6+ years ago. Give it a rest. Unfortunately for all Vol fans we had 4 years of less than mediocre coaches and players.

You want me to "give it a rest"? Why? Because the truth about what happened offends you?

Fulmer was great for the first half of his career. But he drove the program into the ditch. The roster he left Kiffin and by extension Dooley was WORSE than what Jones inherited... and Jones inherited a pretty big mess and weak roster. So again, Fulmer ran the program into the ditch and neither Dooley nor Kiffin pulled it out.

A blind man can see that UT has turned the corner (even paul finebaum has said as much,not that his opinion matters ). CBJ and his staff have recruited extremely well and the future looks extremely bright. The attitude of the players is one that they "expect" to win against whoever they are playing. That is something was missing for way too long.

Nope. All those are wonderful and positive and hope inspiring things. But the corner is turned when UT starts getting significant wins, breaks some of these obscene losing streaks, and is top 10 in the REAL polls and not just on recruiting sites.

Even 8-4 this fall wouldn't qualify as "turning the corner"... unless of course your ultimate goal is a second tier program.

IMHO we are on the way back. We are so close you can feel it in the air. 8/4 or 9/3 this year is expected. A couple more years and the sky is the limit.
Every post on this thread is only an opinion (including mine). That is what is so exciting! You can read the passion in the lines. I can hardly wait for the call " IT'S FOOTBALL TIME IN TENNESSEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

GBO epper:epper:

I believe the table is set. Jones keeps working the "experience, depth, and talent" angles but as we've discussed here... that is pretty weak now. If this staff can compete as coaches against the SEC then UT is on the way back. But that remains unproven and is the difference at this point in which direction the program goes.

FWIW, I was supportive of Jones hiring "his guy" for OC and have become hopeful that the new OC is a net "plus" for the staff.

 

[MedicT]

What will the theme of your pontification hold this fall as the inevitable "ruts in the road" occur?

 

[Doyle Hargraves]

What will the theme of your pontification hold this fall as the inevitable "ruts in the road" occur?

So, you have little faith in the team or the coaching staff? Failure is inevitable? You have become quite the negavol.