Bored at work on a Friday and wanted to see what Volnation thinks.
Bama runs the table and wins the west.
Tenn goes 10-2 with losses to Bama and TA&M, wins east.
Tenn then beats Bama in the SEC Championship.
Do we go to the playoff, does Bama, or both?
I'm assuming a lot would depend on what other power 5 teams records are at that point. Happy Friday boys and girls :beerf:
I'm not sure either get to go, TopNotch, and here's why.
1. Either Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State will end the season with 0 or 1 loss, because the rest of that conference is rollable. Maybe two of them could end up with 0 or 1 loss. So that's a guaranteed B10 spot in the playoffs, with a second team maybe knocking on the door.
2. Same kind of thing with the ACC: Clemson and FSU sit well higher than the rest, making it fairly easy for one of them to get to the end of the season at 12-1 or 13-0. So there's a second spot filled.
3. B12 would normally be a fairly tough fight at the top, with Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and TCU (and sometimes even Texas Tech) beating each other up. But Texas is down, TTech is down, and now Baylor has fallen apart at the seams. Even Okla St is weaker the past two years. Which means one of Oklahoma or TCU will likely end the season undefeated or with a single loss. Third spot filled.
So now the Vols and Bama are competing with a PAC winner and the #2 team in the B10 for that final spot. Some ESPN gurus are saying there's a good chance that no PAC team ends the year with less than 2 losses. So maybe we can ignore them for a minute.
Here's the rub: that second B10 team (Michigan or Ohio State, likely) will be lobbying hard for the 4th spot. And those teams have powerful friends in the corridors of power of the CFP. They wouldn't be able to argue their way past a defending champion 1-loss Alabama, but probably would have the oompf to argue for a spot over a 2-loss Tennessee. Even an SEC champ 2-loss Tennessee.
It would be a real conundrum for the panel, absolutely. Can't pick Bama, because Tennessee beat them for the SEC crown. Can't pick Tennessee, because a 1-loss Michigan or Ohio State has more friends in court. Can't pick a 1-loss Mich/OSU, because a 1-loss Bama who are the defending national champs trump them.
At that point, I'm sure the selection committee would be praying that one of the PAC schools finds a way to win the conference with just a single loss, to avoid all of that.
Bottom line for me is, I can't see any 2-loss team, even a conference champ, getting into the playoffs as long as there are 4 or more conference champs and strong runner ups from other conferences with 0 or 1 loss.