In reality it is a 16.667% chance since there are six teams in the east. If you drop UK and Vandy from the mix, that would make it a 25% chance. If you figure in the fact that the other three teams have more talent, that would probably lower that percentage a bit(22.5%). Then throw into the mix that one of those teams probably has a better coach(CSS), it may lower it a tad more(20%). One team has a more experienced coach(CMR) that ends up underachieving with his plethora of talent, so we will call that a wash(still 20%). The other team is way more talented, but has a new coaching staff and more than likely a new system. We will say that bumps our chances a tad(22.5%). We get two of the more talented teams at home, so give us another bump(25%). The thing that, IMO, makes the biggest dent in our chances is the fact we have to play probably the three top teams in the west next year(20%) with two of them being on the road(16.66%). So, after all that, it still takes three licks to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop and our chances at winning the east are still 1 in 6.