Okay, here are the problems. And the first one is about definitions.
Everyone wants: 1. the legacy rebuilt/continued, 2. for the LV's to challenge for Conference titles, Final Fours and an NC. 3. solid recruiting efforts and player improvement. 4. a good in-game coach that can run great, productive practices, make winning strategic game plans and adjustments and out-coach the opposition.
Let's analyze...
Legacy Rebuilt/Continued Does this mean rule the WCBB landscape the way Pat once did? Push past UConn as the pre-eminent women's basketball program? Neither of these is going to happen. Period. Pat's legacy is PAT's Legacy. She's gone, and it is too. Holly can't do the same thing. The hope would be that she could do something similar. UConn, and other top programs, will rise and fall on their own accord. No one will ever touch Auriemma's record, just like no one will ever touch Wooden's. There'll be an Auriemma legacy, and a Summitt legacy, and a Vandeveer legacy, and maybe a Staley legacy. Besides, legacies like Pat's consist of more than just wins and losses. Holly and any new coach are doomed to failure if this criteria is paramount and taken literally.
Challenge for Titles and Final Fours Yes, this is doable. But what does challenge mean? Can we quantify it? Are we looking for consistency or occasional breakthroughs? Over the next ten years, what would be an acceptable level of success? Holly has a .738 winning percentage, with three Elite Eights and one Sweet Sixteen and two conference championships in her five years as coach. Admittedly, though, the trend the last two years is down, and the team that beat the #3, #4, #6, #7, #19, and #25 teams on the AP Top 25 list and the top four finishers in the SEC wound up at #33 nationally and fifth in the SEC because of eight losses to unranked teams. But it does mean that she has challenged for the Conference Championship and the Final Four more times than not. Obviously, that's not good enough for most fans... so what should the target be for, say, the next five years? Three conference championships, three Final Fours, an .850 winning percentage and at least one National Championship? And if anything less than that occurs hire a new coach? Is that realistic?
Recruiting/Player Improvement Tenn fans have this strange tendency to over-value the skills of their program's recruits and then be disappointed with the results they achieve. Many were convinced that landing Russell, and then DeShields meant that a NC was in the bag. But there are open questions here. Were the players as good as advertised? Were recruiting needs met, rather than just drafting the kids rated the highest by some recruiting service or, God forbid, ESPN? Once recruited were the players put in the correct system to match their skills, and were those skills developed during their time at UT? And did these kids have the right work ethic to begin with? And, if not, whose fault is that? This issue is hard to resolve; and with a top class of recruits coming in, I sense that expectations are unusually low at this point. So Holly may have succeeded in lowering expectations just enough so that the team might be able to meet them. But if DeShields and Russell leave she'll have to lower them a LOT more.
Game Coaching Okay, I won't kid you. Nobody thinks Holly is a good game coach. I've never attended a practice so I can't comment on that. Heck, Holly doesn't even seem like she knows why the team lost after the game is over, much less at half-time. And she seems almost equally mystified when the team wins. But here's a caveat... a lot of coaches are very smooth when it comes to explaining wins and losses, and screaming instructions and exhortations during the game, time-outs and in the locker rooms. A lot of them aren't really good coaches at all. And no points are scored at half-time or in post-game press conferences. A lot of really good coaches are eloquently non-committal after a game... until they've studied the video six or eight times. And, of course, that doesn't do any good unless you've got the basketball smarts and aptitude to know what adjustments are possible with the arsenal you have and you're confident enough to issue the orders to your staff and actually make your players comply.
So have I made it all clear? Of course not. Because it isn't clear at all, and never will be.
What is my opinion on all this? Well. It's not clear cut. In fact, it's a very close call, and not a fair one. But I think I'd make a change as soon as the LV's lost in the Tourney. There are problems with a team that has Top 10 talent and loses to eight unranked teams. Problems that Holly either can't recognize or is unable to fix. I think Holly is probably in the top third of all WCBB coaches, but that will never be enough for the Summitt-spoiled fans. They need a Top 10 coach... and, yes, they're hard to come by, and there are no guarantees. But it's impossible to steal second base much less get to third or home if you keep one foot on first base. Tenn has coasted through two double-digit-loss seasons. But a few more and they'll run out of momentum. The warning signs are there.
This new class has a lot of promise. If they're used correctly and developed. Heck, a change might even make it more likely that DD or MR stay, it surely wouldn't make them more likely to leave. A new coach would have no loyalty to some of the players that have mailed it in in some games this year. He or she (and it CAN be a HE or a SHE) could take a fresh look at the talent and make decisions based on the future of the program, not the past. A new coach and a whole new coaching staff might be able to analyze the talent, the trends and opposition in the SEC, and prevent any existing negative attitudes from infecting the new recruits.
Who to hire? A proven head coach from a major conference. One who's done a lot with the talent he or she has, but is at a school without a WCBB pedigree that helps their recruiting. You'll find them in the SEC, the ACC, the Big 12. Maybe even in the AAC, Big 10, or Big East. (I'd avoid the Pac 12 not sure the style of play or recruiting in that conference would translate to the SEC.)
I'm sure there'll be plenty of folks with strong opinions about who the best candidates are.
So do I think this is going to happen? No. Unless next year is a total washout, I expect Holly has at least two more years, maybe more. And perhaps, if she keeps challenging for Conference titles and Final Fours, a lot more.