It should be easy for everyone to see that we are in an overheated economy right now. A significant sign of an overheated economy is an unemployment rate that is below the normal rate for a country. Ideally, full employment should be great news, but full employment also means higher inflation since everyone who needs a job, has a job, with money to spend. In every recession since World War II, the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the years immediately preceding the period in question. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate has varied between 4.7% and 6.3% since World War II. The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%. There are also indicators of abnormally high levels of consumer confidence right now and a stock market (asset) bubble. Throw in the compounding problem of government deficit spending, and there will be a recession. It's just a matter of when... it won't be tangible to the public for about two years, in my opinion, but it's going to happen. Every indicator is there.