Here Comes the Recession

[rjd970]

The bolded is categorically false. The electorate here is the same electorate as has always applied in every other POTUS election. The “popular vote” is now and will always be meaningless. If you don’t like it work to get the constitution changed.

He clearly gets under your skin. That’s on you. Looks like a tough 5 years ahead for ya!

It is not false and I challenge you to show me where it is.

I only bring up the popular vote because you seem to think that the “Buffoon schtick” is just falling for his antics like every other Democrat. The simple fact remains, despite your refusal to accept it, that the majority of the country doesn’t like the job he is doing and didn’t want him in office. Period.

And you are absolutely right Trump gets under my skin. So what? I had no issue when he had his reality TV show. But now he is in a position of power and he seems to have won your vote and the votes of others because you get to now relish in the fact he gets under people’s skin. How low can the bar really get at this point?

This nonsense about him having some method to all this is just plain ****ing stupid.

 

[NorthDallas40]

It is not false and I challenge you to show me where it is.

I only bring up the popular vote because you seem to think that the “Buffoon schtick” is just falling for his antics like every other Democrat. The simple fact remains, despite your refusal to accept it, that the majority of the country doesn’t like the job he is doing and didn’t want him in office. Period.

And you are absolutely right Trump gets under my skin. So what? I had no issue when he had his reality TV show. But now he is in a position of power and he seems to have won your vote and the votes of others because you get to now relish in the fact he gets under people’s skin. How low can the bar really get at this point?

This nonsense about him having some method to all this is just plain ****ing stupid.

It is false. The “popular vote” has never elected the President and I reject your sales job on its equivalency to the electoral college.

And yeah we can all see he gets under your skin. You’re pushing alternative election measures than what have always applied to prove your irritation rant.

 

[rjd970]

It is false. The “popular vote” has never elected the President and I reject your sales job on its equivalency to the electoral college.

And yeah we can all see he gets under your skin. You’re pushing alternative election measures than what have always applied to prove your irritation rant.

LOL...no I’m not. Not even close. All I’m saying is going by the popular vote and latest Gallup polls, it isn’t just Dems that think he is failing. Independents and anybody other than blind partisans also think so.

 

[NorthDallas40]

LOL...no I’m not. Not even close. All I’m saying is going by the popular vote and latest Gallup polls, it isn’t just Dems that think he is failing. Independents and anybody other than blind partisans also think so.

Yes you did. You put the popular vote on par with the electoral college as weighing in on POTUS outcome. It’s a common butthurt rant these days. We’re used to seeing it. It is brought out when the butthurt side loses the election but wins by the non binding vote. Now go look up how many times it’s actually even happened. Again... not that it matters tho.

 

[rjd970]

Yes you did. You put the popular vote on par with the electoral college as weighing in on POTUS outcome. It’s a common butthurt rant these days. We’re used to seeing it. It is brought out when the butthurt side loses the election but wins by the non binding vote. Now go look up how many times it’s actually even happened. Again... not that it matters tho.

Pray tell, quote where I said the popular vote should be used instead of the electoral college. I’ll sit here and wait.

You said:

However the data clearly points to him being better than every other GOP candidate and the DNC choice as he beat them in an open contest. And to date the DNC has offered up a communist and a career DC politician to beat him in 2020. So this is the magic recipe to win this time?!

When I brought up the popular vote I was addressing this. Not once did I say the popular vote should be used instead of the electoral college, or that it is equal. The “data” being the electoral college showed him being better and that his why he won? Well no ****.

But if by data you mean all data, then no, he clearly wasn’t better. The popular vote showed otherwise, by full 2% points. I fully understand he won the electoral college, and that is why he won, the way it should be.

The fact I have to spell this out for you isn’t surprising coming from somebody who thinks Donald Trump is a master manipulator.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Pray tell, quote where I said the popular vote should be used instead of the electoral college. I’ll sit here and wait.

You said:

However the data clearly points to him being better than every other GOP candidate and the DNC choice as he beat them in an open contest. And to date the DNC has offered up a communist and a career DC politician to beat him in 2020. So this is the magic recipe to win this time?!

When I brought up the popular vote I was addressing this. Not once did I say the popular vote should be used instead of the electoral college, or that it is equal. The “data” being the electoral college showed him being better and that his why he won? Well no ****.

But if by data you mean all data, then no, he clearly wasn’t better. The popular vote showed otherwise, by full 2% points. I fully understand he won the electoral college, and that is why he won, the way it should be.

The fact I have to spell this out for you isn’t surprising coming from somebody who thinks Donald Trump is a master manipulator.

Lol. I stated “the data said” and you replied with “the popular vote”. The implication was clear and is the same as it had been since 2016. He lost the popular vote so he shouldn’t be president. Yes you attempted equivalence between the two. No such equivalence exists. “All data” is irrelevant. The data I listed is all that matters.

 

[rjd970]

Lol. I stated “the data said” and you replied with “the popular vote”. The implication was clear and is the same as it had been since 2016. He lost the popular vote so he shouldn’t be president. Yes you attempted equivalence between the two. No such equivalence exists. “All data” is irrelevant. The data I listed is all that matters.

The popular vote is data. Period. If you said “electoral college” we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. So you can’t quote where I said anything of the like. Got it.

Just like your opinion on Trump, let’s not look at what is actually being said, let’s look at what we want it to say and insert our own meaning. Smh.

 

[NorthDallas40]

So you can’t quote where I said anything of the like. Got it.

Just like your opinion on Trump, let’s not look at what is actually being said, let’s look at what we want it to say and insert our own meaning. Smh.

LMAO ok

“But all data...”

 

[rjd970]

LMAO ok

“But all data...”

Ladies and gentlemen, this is anecdotal evidence of a typical Trump voter.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Ladies and gentlemen, this is anecdotal evidence of a typical Trump voter.

I didn’t vote for him remember.

And it’s not my fault you can’t sell your own statement. He won the only vote that matters. And he’s a miserable human being but that is meaningless for the office.

And your continual butthurt in your rant is noted. And you’ve not proven a single assertion.

 

[VolStrom]

Ladies and gentlemen, this is anecdotal evidence of a typical Trump voter.

Okay Dr Fauci.

 

[rjd970]

I didn’t vote for him remember.

And it’s not my fault you can’t sell your own statement. He won the only vote that matters. And he’s a miserable human being but that is meaningless for the office.

And your continual butthurt in your rant is noted. And you’ve not proven a single assertion.

Are you planning on voting for him this time? The miserable human being?

 

[NorthDallas40]

Are you planning on voting for him this time? The miserable human being?

I’ve seen no better qualified alternative presented thus far. Have you?

And I already said earlier I intended to vote for him this time pay attention

 

[rjd970]

I’ve seen no better qualified alternative presented thus far. Have you?

So again, ladies and gentlemen, your typical Trump voter. Want to refute this statement a second time?

I guarantee there will be a third party candidate that flies under the radar and doesn’t get noticed that is better than anything either the Dems or Repubs put up. I’ve always found one better.

You seem to have found your choice already.

I can’t stand the tweet storms and don’t see them unless I read a “did you see what Trump tweeted now?!” mostly here or from my triggered leftist FB buddies. And I didn’t vote for him last time either I voted libertarian. But... I will vote for him next time!

Because what is principles and values next to the ability to troll and “manipulate” the opposition? Am I right?

 

[NorthDallas40]

So again, ladies and gentlemen, your typical Trump voter. Want to refute this statement a second time?

I guarantee there will be a third party candidate that flies under the radar and doesn’t get noticed that is better than anything either the Dems or Repubs put up. I’ve always forums one better.

You seem to have found your choice already.



Because what is principles and values next to the ability to troll and “manipulate” the opposition? Am I right?

LMAO. Go check the post i already told you I would vote for him next time. No way in hell will I vote for sleepy joe or feel the bern.

I voted libertarian last time I told you that too.

But despite the fact that he’s a miserable human being he’s actually been pretty effective from a policy standpoint to me. And I found that surprising. So yes based on that I’ll vote for him before I’ll vote for any Democrat candidate offered thus far.

I don’t care if he’s a miserable human being. That’s your hang up not mine. I just want an effective president and I think he has been one. And I don’t GAF about his trolling tweets again that’s another one of your hang ups.

 

[rjd970]

LMAO. Go check the post i already told you I would vote for him next time. No way in hell will I vote for sleepy joe or feel the bern.

I voted libertarian last time I told you that too.

But despite the fact that he’s a miserable human being he’s actually been pretty effective from a policy standpoint to me. And I found that surprising. So yes based on that I’ll vote for him again before I’ll vote for any Democrat candidate offered thus far.

I don’t care if he’s a miserable human being. That’s your hang up not mine. I just want an effective president and I think he has been one. And I don’t GAF about his trolling tweets again that’s another one of your hang ups.

Actually, if you agree with him on policy matters that is fair enough. What was the hang up with voting for him in the last election? What were you wrong about that changed your mind?

Personally, I don’t think he is that materially different from any Dem being in office. They are all cut from the same cloth with different rhetoric. I didn’t think Trump nor Hillary would be an effective president, and I haven’t seen anything that has changed my mind on that. Neither one of these parties give a rats *** about any of us common folk. It’s just about power and pounding the opposition.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Actually, if you agree with him on policy matters that is fair enough. What was the hang up with voting for him in the last election? What were you wrong about that changed your mind?

Personally, I don’t think he is that materially different from any Dem being in office. They are all cut from the same cloth with different rhetoric. I didn’t think Trump nor Hillary would be an effective president, and I haven’t seen anything that has changed my mind on that. Neither one of these parties give a rats *** about any of us common folk. It’s just about power and pounding the opposition.

I didn’t believe he would follow thru on any of his stump speeches related to policy. I’ve been pleasantly surprised on his foreign policy approaches. I do like the hard stance on certain trading partners also, specifically China. Somebody has to call those bastards to the mat, might as well be us. I like the pull back from globalism I don’t think that policy approach serves us very well I think we wind up supporting the whole damn world. I like the hard stance on illegal immigration. I completely agree with it. I believe we are a nation of immigrants and am all for lawful immigration. But enforce our immigration laws or vacate them, don’t frigging ignore them. He’s trying to enforce them I’m in favor of that.

I’m also glad I don’t have to deal with him everyday. I am quite certain he would get on my damn nerves. Thus far in his presidency that hasn’t been as issue for me.

I have been disappointed with regards to fiscal policy. Yes there appear to be no conservatives left in DC outside of perhaps Rand Paul.

I don’t disagree that either party cares about “the people” I think they in fact play us off each other. And yes Trump clearly does that with his tweets. Another reason I don’t listen to them.

 

[MontyPython]

Well, here's an article that will ruin your day...

Goodbye life that we used to know. Hello sh*t until vaccine is developed.

NO FOOTBALL, NO BARS, NO NOTHING with crowds.

*sigh*

So, just for the record... if you're long right now on equities, I'd suggest selling. This isn't going to be a "V" shaped recovery. This is going to take a long time, I'm afraid, and the economy is going to continue to be pummeled.

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening

 

[NorthDallas40]

Well, here's an article that will ruin your day...

Goodbye life that we used to know. Hello sh*t until vaccine is developed.

NO FOOTBALL, NO BARS, NO NOTHING with crowds.

*sigh*

So, just for the record... if you're long right now on equities, I'd suggest selling. This isn't going to be a "V" shaped recovery. This is going to take a long time, I'm afraid, and the economy is going to continue to be pummeled.

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening

I thought you took your ball and went home?

 

[37L1]

I thought you took your ball and went home?

Hey, I'm glad he's back.
We may disagree a lot but that doesn't mean I'm happy if they leave. Everyone should be free to voice their opinion, even if they are FOS.

 

[MontyPython]

FWIW

I think there will be a perception of lots of good news in the near term about the virus. Trump and all the states very much want to end the quarantine needed for Stage 1 of the virus. I think Trump will continue to push for more of a hard date, while the governors will soft peddle a rolling opening. This will probably result in some businesses reopening under a new system of 'normal'. Social distancing, mandatory masks in public, limits on the size of gatherings, limits on the number of people within a firm (e.g. stores and maybe restaurants or bars, but that's a whole other ball of wax since they require removal of masks). All of this will give people hope that there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

Right now, the markets appear to have baked in a belief that we'll see the worst of it in Q2 followed by a return to growth when 'normality' returns this Spring/Summer. This is short-sighted.

IMO until a treatment or vaccine is developed and widely available, we're screwed. Pretty much everything that we used to take for granted - going to a movie, restaurant, ball game, museum, whatever - is not coming back until there's a cure. There will be no NCAA football or NFL this Fall. Which sucks.

I think the current belief in the markets that this is a short-term deal is going to melt away during May, when it becomes clear that life really isn't going to return to normal anytime soon.

With no travel, no gatherings of people, etc. and an unemployment rate approaching 20%, people are going to go (further) into a bunker mentality. Spending is not going to open up. Consumers are not going to race back into spending. This is going to take awhile.

I'm afraid that this is going to be our generation's version of the 1930's depression. Unemployment is going to hit 25%+. Small businesses are going to fail. People are going to suffer.

GDP will shrink by, say, 20% in Q2. Worse, it will continue to shrink in Q3 and Q4.

The good news is I think it's going to be far more compressed than the 30's time frame. Again, once a treatment/cure is widely available, life will actually begin to return to a real normal. Including football.

In the medium term - beginning in May I think - the financial markets are going to begin going down again. In fact, even though we're in Phase 2 of the whole virus, we may see a second mass outbreak in the Fall if/when the virus mutates. Hopefully, by the beginning of next year, we'll get a fix for the virus. Until at least the Fall or early Winter of this year, though, the markets are going to tank big time.

I'm currently long with only one holding (EA) plus my IRA. I work for a video game firm, and our sales are up roughly 40% since the virus hit. IMO pretty much any one of the major gaming companies is a great defensive stock right now, e.g. ATVI, TTWO, EA.

I'm holding onto my IRA untouched and EA for now. When/if the various stock composites start approaching / hitting their respective 200 DMAs, I'm going to begin establishing a short position. Sell in May and walk away.

Hopefully, my post turns out to be a bunch of meaningless blabbering. I don't want to go through anymore of this whole mess. It's horrible. I will be happy if I'm wrong, as I want life to return to normal. FWIW I'll post here again when/if I pull the trigger on shorting. It's not something I really want to do. It definitely can cause sleepless nights if you're actually substantially short, and the market goes up in the short run.

At any rate, hope y'all make it through all this ok.

 

[TheDeeble]

Hopefully, my post turns out to be a bunch of meaningless blabbering.

Some of it is my belief as well. Just because the govt says open business, restaurants, theaters, sports, ect back up doesn't mean people will be rushing do so. Small things like barber shops, meeting with friends, ect might see a return to normalcy but I think movie theaters, large sporting events, cruise ships, passenger flights, ect where groups of people are in close proximity are going to be very slow for a while. At least for the remainder of the year if not longer.

But at least at the end of this maybe people will continue to wash their hands.

 

[Vol8188]

Well, here's an article that will ruin your day...

Goodbye life that we used to know. Hello sh*t until vaccine is developed.

NO FOOTBALL, NO BARS, NO NOTHING with crowds.

*sigh*

So, just for the record... if you're long right now on equities, I'd suggest selling. This isn't going to be a "V" shaped recovery. This is going to take a long time, I'm afraid, and the economy is going to continue to be pummeled.

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening

Why would we go an entire year without those things? We should be reopening the economy today. This insanity over a virus with a .37% death rate is unbelievable. They scared us with bad data (1-2 million would die) and now that we know that’s not the case, people need to get back to work.

 

[MontyPython]

Why would we go an entire year without those things? We should be reopening the economy today. This insanity over a virus with a .37% death rate is unbelievable. They scared us with bad data (1-2 million would die) and now that we know that’s not the case, people need to get back to work.

Check your numbers on mortality rate...

"A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54."

 

[NorthDallas40]

Check your numbers on mortality rate...

"A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54."

I thought you took your ball and went home. Twice.