For those who don't understand the playoffs selection...

#52
#52
UTFranklinVol said:
this idea that the ACC is only gonna get 1 team in the CFP is the most rediculous thing I've seen.

Not including ND, there's three SOLID ACC teams who are all in good position to be 1 loss teams and GT could beat Georgia and be undefeated.
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The ACC will not get 3 in, unless the SEC explodes on itself. They may get 2 if the right teams are in the mix.

The B1G got four in last year - probably not going to happen this year. I think they get three - OSU, Indiana, and Oregon.
 
#53
#53
Sarms58 said:
You think an 11-1 GT that made the ACCCG gets left out while Tennessee gets in?
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That isn't what I said. I said if GT loses an ACC game and then loses to UGA at the end of the season. That would be a 10-2 GT at that point in time, heading into the ACCCG. So no, I don't think a 10-2 GT team is ranked inside the top 12 before the ACCCG, meaning they would still be out if they lost the ACCCG.
 
#54
#54
UTFranklinVol said:
would you say that the probability of these teams winning out is more or less likely to happen than Tennessee winning out?

Tennessee has a much tougher road.

so if we're going to assume Tennessee can win out should we also not assume then that they could win out with a much easier schedule?
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That isn't the point or part of the discussion. The discussion is what happens if TN wins out and is sitting at 10-2.
 
#56
#56
Carp said:
That isn't the point or part of the discussion. The discussion is what happens if TN wins out and is sitting at 10-2.
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correct. so if you make the assumption that Tennessee wins out you have to look at these other teams and how likely it will be if they also win. I would say that a lot of those teams have a much more likely chance of doing that then Tennessee does. so if you're going to just assume Tennessee does it then you also must assume those teams can do it since it's much easier for them to do so with their remaining schedule.
 
#58
#58
Carp said:
That isn't what I said. I said if GT loses an ACC game and then loses to UGA at the end of the season. That would be a 10-2 GT at that point in time, heading into the ACCCG. So no, I don't think a 10-2 GT team is ranked inside the top 12 before the ACCCG, meaning they would still be out if they lost the ACCCG.
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GT will be favored in all remaining conference games. If GT loses to Georgia but wins the other remaining games, they have 99% chance of making the playoffs…

Virginia has a tougher path - Duke will be favored to win the Duke vs Virginia game. But should Virginia win out and make the CG, they too have a 99% chance of making the playoffs

We can finish 10-2 and make the playoff and we can finish 10-2 and not make the playoffs - it’s outside our control
 
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#61
#61
farmdogvol said:
If SMU, GT, and UVA win out, then SMU beats GT in championship game, UVA and GT will each have 1 loss and SMU will be in as champ. ACC will have 3 teams in, GT will have to beat UGA which isn't likely. ACC could have 3,2 or just 1. Every week is a playoff game for both the SEC and the ACC here on out.
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I am willing to bet a ton of $$ that SMU will not make the CFP and if that did occur, not a single ACC team would win a CFP game. My guess is Miami plays GT in the ACC title and I’ll take Duke to upset UVA in a few weeks. We really need Pitt to beat Notre dame coming up.
 
#62
#62
Sarms58 said:
GT will be favored in all remaining conference games. If GT loses to Georgia but wins the other remaining games, they have 99% chance of making the playoffs…and that’s regardless of the CG outcome…
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If GT loses a close game to Georgia, then I agree. If Georgia blows out GT, GT may have to win the CG. They do not have a good win giving that Clemson has tanked.
 
#63
#63
UTFranklinVol said:
correct. so if you make the assumption that Tennessee wins out you have to look at these other teams and how likely it will be if they also win. I would say that a lot of those teams have a much more likely chance of doing that then Tennessee does. so if you're going to just assume Tennessee does it then you also must assume those teams can do it since it's much easier for them to do so with their remaining schedule.
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That isn't how that works. I am not making any predictions on how likely we are to win out. And in any matter, it completely ignores the actual talent level of the teams we're talking about.

Virginia is not super talented. Their schedule isn't particularly hard, but most of their remaining teams are against teams on an equal talent level. Ditto for Louisville who actually does have a tough remaining schedule.
 
#65
#65
To be clear that is not saying I don't believe GT is a good team - just that the Clemson win doesn't help them now and most of their games in the ACC are against the bottom part of the conference. They have a favorable schedule in that regards.
 
#66
#66
Even if we make the playoffs, I just feel like we don’t have the team this year to make any kind of deep playoff run. I’d rather go 10-2 and get left out, then win our bowl game than go 10-2, make the playoffs, and then get blown out in the first round again.
 
#67
#67
Vols1891 said:
Even if we make the playoffs, I just feel like we don’t have the team this year to make any kind of deep playoff run. I’d rather go 10-2 and get left out, then win our bowl game than go 10-2, make the playoffs, and then get blown out in the first round again.
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It will depend entirely upon who we play. We got the bad draw last year.
 
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#68
#68
UTFranklinVol said:
yes! a lot of other things have to happen ON TOP of Tennessee winning all their remaining games! the Tennessee part is much harder than the other part.
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The point is, if we are sitting there at 10-2, the odds of all things going against us to actually happen (some combination of 3 teams out of GT, VA, Louisville, and Miami sitting at 1 loss or less, plus ND winning out, plus the BIg 12 sending 2 teams, plus more SEC teams ahead us, etc.) are very small.

There were the same discussions last year, with nearly the exact same schedule, and we ended up ranked 7th.
 
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#69
#69
Carp said:
That isn't how that works. I am not making any predictions on how likely we are to win out. And in any matter, it completely ignores the actual talent level of the teams we're talking about.

Virginia is not super talented. Their schedule isn't particularly hard, but most of their remaining teams are against teams on an equal talent level. Ditto for Louisville who actually does have a tough remaining schedule.
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UVA has 3 potential losses, @ Cal bc weird stuff happens in Berkeley and it could be a 10:30 EST kick, @ Duke bc Duke is a decent team that has a good QB and Wake bc they have pushed some teams this season . It’s crazy that we’re sitting here talking about an 11-1 UVA team making the CFP, who would be 8-4 at best in the Big 12 and who knows what they’d be in the SEC. Miami is the best team in the ACC, GT has scratched and clawed their way to where they are, but the second they play someone that will out talent them it’s gonna be a tough day. I fully expect UGA to be ready to play this year. Clemson, FSU, VT and of course the true embarrassment of the conference, UNC, are bad.
 
#70
#70
Vols1891 said:
Even if we make the playoffs, I just feel like we don’t have the team this year to make any kind of deep playoff run. I’d rather go 10-2 and get left out, then win our bowl game than go 10-2, make the playoffs, and then get blown out in the first round again.
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We have the offense to score on anyone this year. And despite the lapses on defense, we've held our own vs some of the best offenses in football.

It will depend on the pull and whether or not we could get HFA (unlikely at the current juncture) but I like our chances with this offense.
 
#71
#71
RDU VOL#14 said:
UVA has 3 potential losses, @ Cal bc weird stuff happens in Berkeley and it could be a 10:30 EST kick, @ Duke bc Duke is a decent team that has a good QB and Wake bc they have pushed some teams this season . It’s crazy that we’re sitting here talking about an 11-1 UVA team making the CFP, who would be 8-4 at best in the Big 12 and who knows what they’d be in the SEC. Miami is the best team in the ACC, GT has scratched and clawed their way to where they are, but the second they play someone that will out talent them it’s gonna be a tough day. I fully expect UGA to be ready to play this year. Clemson, FSU, VT and of course the true embarrassment of the conference, UNC, are bad.
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GT is overly reliant on King and he is banged up every single week. As long as he is healthy, they will give anyone fits. But that style of play really takes its toll the later you get into the season. King was a lot more fresh against UGA a year ago after missing a couple games to an injury.
 
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#73
#73
volfan102455 said:
The ACC will not get 3 in, unless the SEC explodes on itself. They may get 2 if the right teams are in the mix.

The B1G got four in last year - probably not going to happen this year. I think they get three - OSU, Indiana, and Oregon.
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if Miami wins out they will be top 10 easily probably top 5 going into the ACC title game.

if Georgia Tech wins the rest of their ACC games and the only loss is to UGA they will stay in the top 10.

if Virginia wins out they will be very very close to the top 12.

if this happens then you have GT vs Virginia in the ACC championship.

If GT wins then GT and Miami will go to the CFP

if Virginia wins then Virginia and Miami will go.

there's virtually no way Miami gets left out if they don't lose another game.

If Virginia slips up and loses a conference game they are done and out.

if GT loses a conference game (and also los a to Georgia) then they are out unless they somehow get the auto bid by winning the ACCCG.

either way there are more scenarios where two ACC teams likely make the playoff than there is just one team.

the one way 3 ACC teams get it would be if Miami wins out but misses the ACCCG, GT loses the ACCCG but beats Georgia and VT wins the ACCCG.

there's also the disinct possibly that SMU wins out and wins the ACCCG or that Louisville wins out and wins the ACCCG.

bottom line is things would have to completely fall apart in the ACC for only 1 ACC team to make the CFP along with ND.
 
#74
#74
Carp said:
The point is, if we are sitting there at 10-2, the odds of all things going against us to actually happen (some combination of 3 teams out of GT, VA, Louisville, and Miami sitting at 1 loss or less, plus ND winning out, plus the BIg 12 sending 2 teams, plus more SEC teams ahead us, etc.) are very small.

There were the same discussions last year, with nearly the exact same schedule, and we ended up ranked 7th.
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Yeah but all things don't have to go against us, just a couple things have to go against us.
 
#75
#75
UTFranklinVol said:
if Miami wins out they will be top 10 easily probably top 5 going into the ACC title game.

if Georgia Tech wins the rest of their ACC games and the only loss is to UGA they will stay in the top 10.

if Virginia wins out they will be very very close to the top 12.

if this happens then you have GT vs Virginia in the ACC championship.

If GT wins then GT and Miami will go to the CFP

if Virginia wins then Virginia and Miami will go.

there's virtually no way Miami gets left out if they don't lose another game.

If Virginia slips up and loses a conference game they are done and out.

if GT loses a conference game (and also los a to Georgia) then they are out unless they somehow get the auto bid by winning the ACCCG.

either way there are more scenarios where two ACC teams likely make the playoff than there is just one team.

the one way 3 ACC teams get it would be if Miami wins out but misses the ACCCG, GT loses the ACCCG but beats Georgia and VT wins the ACCCG.

there's also the disinct possibly that SMU wins out and wins the ACCCG or that Louisville wins out and wins the ACCCG.

bottom line is things would have to completely fall apart in the ACC for only 1 ACC team to make the CFP along with ND.
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And only one of those teams is actually good
 
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