Florida streak (split)

[KBVol]

Ok that's true. Honestly I think the sad truth is the few times we've had the better talent we fell in that 30%. Things will change this year, I can feel it

I agree. And that's the frustration of it. Even the "hidden stats" that are supposed to predict who's gonna win only seem to apply to Florida. For example, the one that always gets brought up is "whichever team runs for the most yards wins".....I can think of two times off the top of my head in recent years when we outrushed them but still lost, while, conversely, the stat holds true for them. So frustrating.

 

[ConMan]

I'm not trying to fuel the fire but this D4H guy has a gators license plate and rear view window decal on his donk

 

[GBO97]

Even if Florida is no longer Florida, we're in no position to expect to beat ANYONE.

If that's the case, then why have you been in so many other threads claiming UT will make the CFP, or even win the title?

 

[08Vol]

I agree. And that's the frustration of it. Even the "hidden stats" that are supposed to predict who's gonna win only seem to apply to Florida. For example, the one that always gets brought up is "whichever team runs for the most yards wins".....I can think of two times off the top of my head in recent years when we outrushed them but still lost, while, conversely, the stat holds true for them. So frustrating.

That "runs for the most" is kind of misleading. UF uses the run to open up the deep passing game. We use the run and abandon the deep passing game. When UF safties start to cheat up on the line Dobbs has to audible to a play action pass and take advantage of it

 

[norrislakevol]

That "runs for the most" is kind of misleading. UF uses the run to open up the deep passing game. We use the run and abandon the deep passing game. When UF safties start to cheat up on the line Dobbs has to audible to a play action pass and take advantage of it

Yeah I never bought into the "Whoever rushes for the most yards wins in this series". Complete garbage, and Travis Henry in 2000 and Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara last year agree with me.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Streaks don't mean anything when you're on the field unless it's late in the game and you're getting blown out.

 

[KBVol]

That "runs for the most" is kind of misleading. UF uses the run to open up the deep passing game. We use the run and abandon the deep passing game. When UF safties start to cheat up on the line Dobbs has to audible to a play action pass and take advantage of it

The point about that stat is its supposed to be indiscriminate....it's suppose to predict the winner based on historical record of the UT-UF series. However, we outrushed them last year something like 255 to 110....not even remotely close....and we still lost. Same deal in 2000...outrushed em 203 to 39 and still lost. Throw in 2002 as well, narrowly outrushed them, still lost. Conversely, when UF outrushes UT, they win pretty much every time.

 

[Boca Vol]

The point about that stat is its supposed to be indiscriminate....it's suppose to predict the winner based on historical record of the UT-UF series. However, we outrushed them last year something like 255 to 110....not even remotely close....and we still lost. Same deal in 2000...outrushed em 203 to 39 and still lost. Throw in 2002 as well, narrowly outrushed them, still lost. Conversely, when UF outrushes UT, they win pretty much every time.

You could have simply said, "When UF shows up, they win pretty much every time."

We really owe them a butt-kicking!

 

[KBVol]

You could have simply said, "When UF shows up, they win pretty much every time."

We really owe them a butt-kicking!

Sadly, you are correct sir. If they're gonna trot that stat out again for this year's broadcast, they're gonna have to say, "whoever has more rushing yards will win this game....err...unless Tennessee has more yards rushing, or unless Florida has fewer yards rushing, in which case Florida will win." Lol.

 

[FïreBall]

Sadly, you are correct sir. If they're gonna trot that stat out again for this year's broadcast, they're gonna have to say, "whoever has more rushing yards will win this game....err...unless Tennessee has more yards rushing, or unless Florida has fewer yards rushing, in which case Florida will win." Lol.

Maybe there is a stat we are overlooking that is a sign of who will win.. Like holding penalties.. Most receiving yards by a 4th string WR.. Missed tackles by a TE..

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Maybe there is a stat we are overlooking that is a sign of who will win.. Like holding penalties.. Most receiving yards by a 4th string WR.. Missed tackles by a TE..

Most Thursday night hamburgers eaten by the defensive front 7. That has never, in the history of this rivalry, failed to predict the winner.

What? That's just as valid a "dashboard indicator" as many of the others touted by ESPN, CBS and ABC talking heads.

 

[FïreBall]

Most Thursday night hamburgers eaten by the defensive front 7. That has never, in the history of this rivalry, failed to predict the winner.

What? That's just as valid a "dashboard indicator" as many of the others touted by ESPN, CBS and ABC talking heads.

Yes sir!!

 

[KBVol]

Maybe there is a stat we are overlooking that is a sign of who will win.. Like holding penalties.. Most receiving yards by a 4th string WR.. Missed tackles by a TE..

Do what? Are you suggesting that rushing yards is a nebulous statistic that has no more validity to the outcome of a game than holding penalties, receiving yards by a 4th string WR or missed tackles by a TE.....or, as JP has facetiously mocked, "most hamburgers eaten on a Thursday night (before the game) by the defensive front seven".

Historically, whichever team has the most rushing yards in our series with Florida........ AND ......... whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposition DURING THE BUTCH JONES ERA is an incredibly reliable indicator of who won and ultimately who will win the game.....

Over the last 16 years in our series with Florida (couldn't find box scores prior to 2000) the winning team has won the rushing battle 12 times, or 75% of the time.

It breaks down like this....Florida has outrushed Tennessee 10 times the last 16 meetings and they've won ALL 10 TIMES, 100% of the time.......

conversely, Tennessee has outrushed Florida 6 times, but we're ONLY 2-4.....or only 33% of the time have we won the game.

So, while the actual overall statistic is very valid with regards to our series with Florida (it's shown to be reliable 75% of the time the last 16 times), it's ONLY really true when Florida outrushes Tennessee, which is beyond frustrating to me as a Vols fan.

Furthermore, to illustrate that whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposing team is indeed a legitimate indicator of who wins the game, I give you these statistics.....

Over the last 3 seasons, under Butch Jones, in 38 total games played, we have outrushed the opposing team 24 times.....and we are 21-3 (.875) in those games. Put another way, when we do not outrush the opposing team during that same time period, we are 3-11.

So, joke and mock all you want about 4th string WRs and hamburgers eaten by DTs 2 days before the game. However, I'd encourage you not to overlook how important the running game is to determining whether or not we're likely to lose to Florida or in fact whether or not we're likely to beat anybody else on our schedule while Butch Jones is our head coach. It appears to be more important than how many tackles (Ethan Wolf or Jason Croom) may miss this year.

 

[FïreBall]

Do what? Are you suggesting that rushing yards is a nebulous statistic that has no more validity to the outcome of a game than holding penalties, receiving yards by a 4th string WR or missed tackles by a TE.....or, as JP has facetiously mocked, "most hamburgers eaten on a Thursday night (before the game) by the defensive front seven".

Historically, whichever team has the most rushing yards in our series with Florida........ AND ......... whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposition DURING THE BUTCH JONES ERA is an incredibly reliable indicator of who won and ultimately who will win the game.....

Over the last 16 years in our series with Florida (couldn't find box scores prior to 2000) the winning team has won the rushing battle 12 times, or 75% of the time.

It breaks down like this....Florida has outrushed Tennessee 10 times the last 16 meetings and they've won ALL 10 TIMES, 100% of the time.......

conversely, Tennessee has outrushed Florida 6 times, but we're ONLY 2-4.....or only 33% of the time have we won the game.

So, while the actual overall statistic is very valid with regards to our series with Florida (it's shown to be reliable 75% of the time the last 16 times), it's ONLY really true when Florida outrushes Tennessee, which is beyond frustrating to me as a Vols fan.

Furthermore, to illustrate that whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposing team is indeed a legitimate indicator of who wins the game, I give you these statistics.....

Over the last 3 seasons, under Butch Jones, in 38 total games played, we have outrushed the opposing team 24 times.....and we are 21-3 (.875) in those games. Put another way, when we do not outrush the opposing team during that same time period, we are 3-11.

So, joke and mock all you want about 4th string WRs and hamburgers eaten by DTs 2 days before the game. However, I'd encourage you not to overlook how important the running game is to determining whether or not we're likely to lose to Florida or in fact whether or not we're likely to beat anybody else on our schedule while Butch Jones is our head coach. It appears to be more important than how many tackles (Ethan Wolf or Jason Croom) may miss this year.

It was a joke based off previous comments made. The rushing game is obviously very important for many factors.. Controlling TOP, LOS, wearing a D down.. The joke was, there is probably a true stat out there that 100% accurate, as stupid as it may be, for the talking heads..

 

[VFL-82-JP]

..joke and mock all you want about 4th string WRs and hamburgers eaten by DTs 2 days before the game. However, I'd encourage you not to overlook how important the running game is to determining whether or not we're likely to lose to Florida or in fact whether or not we're likely to beat anybody else on our schedule while Butch Jones is our head coach. It appears to be more important than how many tackles (Ethan Wolf or Jason Croom) may miss this year.

KB, you're right. We're just poking fun at the difference between correlation, causation, and predictability. Hamburgers on Thursday night probably do not have a cause-and-effect relationship with Saturday wins and losses. In contrast, rushing yards absolutely contribute to getting a W...so there's a degree of causation there.

The reason it seemed funny is the part about how "it's 100% accurate when Florida wins." As in, Florida almost always rushes more than Tennessee (true in the past 20 years) and Florida almost always wins (true in the past 20 years). But not true for Tennessee when we rush for more (only true 33% of the time).

So in the end, it's not a very good predictive indicator, other than saying, "hey, Florida's probably going to win. Bet they get more rushing yards, too."

So we're just goofing around with that God-awful, cursed streak. No harm meant.


p.s. If I were feeling a bit more nerdy today, I'd scrub the record books until I found some variables that perfectly correlate with Ws and Ls over the past 20-25 years. I'm sure there are at least one or two. Having found them, it would then be fun to debate the extent to which there has, or has not, been any causation between the two variables, and beyond that, the extent to which those variables might prove predictive for future games. :good!:

 

[82_VOL_83]

I know you've admitted this before, D4H, but I've refrained from saying anything until now. Just gotta echo what others have already said: shame, shame, bad "fan" who doesn't stay true in the lean years. I would encourage you to be a faithful and true Vols fan for the rest of your life, not a fair-weather fan only. :good!:

I would encourage him to stfu and stop posting.

 

[82_VOL_83]

I know you've admitted this before, D4H, but I've refrained from saying anything until now. Just gotta echo what others have already said: shame, shame, bad "fan" who doesn't stay true in the lean years. I would encourage you to be a faithful and true Vols fan for the rest of your life, not a fair-weather fan only. :good!:

.

 

[08Vol]

Do what? Are you suggesting that rushing yards is a nebulous statistic that has no more validity to the outcome of a game than holding penalties, receiving yards by a 4th string WR or missed tackles by a TE.....or, as JP has facetiously mocked, "most hamburgers eaten on a Thursday night (before the game) by the defensive front seven".

Historically, whichever team has the most rushing yards in our series with Florida........ AND ......... whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposition DURING THE BUTCH JONES ERA is an incredibly reliable indicator of who won and ultimately who will win the game.....

Over the last 16 years in our series with Florida (couldn't find box scores prior to 2000) the winning team has won the rushing battle 12 times, or 75% of the time.

It breaks down like this....Florida has outrushed Tennessee 10 times the last 16 meetings and they've won ALL 10 TIMES, 100% of the time.......

conversely, Tennessee has outrushed Florida 6 times, but we're ONLY 2-4.....or only 33% of the time have we won the game.

So, while the actual overall statistic is very valid with regards to our series with Florida (it's shown to be reliable 75% of the time the last 16 times), it's ONLY really true when Florida outrushes Tennessee, which is beyond frustrating to me as a Vols fan.

Furthermore, to illustrate that whether or not Tennessee runs for more yards than the opposing team is indeed a legitimate indicator of who wins the game, I give you these statistics.....

Over the last 3 seasons, under Butch Jones, in 38 total games played, we have outrushed the opposing team 24 times.....and we are 21-3 (.875) in those games. Put another way, when we do not outrush the opposing team during that same time period, we are 3-11.

So, joke and mock all you want about 4th string WRs and hamburgers eaten by DTs 2 days before the game. However, I'd encourage you not to overlook how important the running game is to determining whether or not we're likely to lose to Florida or in fact whether or not we're likely to beat anybody else on our schedule while Butch Jones is our head coach. It appears to be more important than how many tackles (Ethan Wolf or Jason Croom) may miss this year.

I think rushing is an important stat to determine the winner but all it really conveys is "get more yards = wins more games". Doesn't matter where those yards come from. I looked at the 3 years of Butch (ignored cream puff games, counted USU and BG) and compared most rushing yards to wins and total yards to win.

Rushing predicts winner 27-4
Total yards predicts winner 27-4

Rushing didn't predict the winner
USC 13
Vandy 14
UF 15
Bama 15

Total yards didn't predict the winner
USC 13
FL 14
Vandy 14
UF 15

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

If that's the case, then why have you been in so many other threads claiming UT will make the CFP, or even win the title?

Uhhh I was talking about the past with that comment.

We now have the players to expect to beat everyone we play.

This sport is about the players. When you suck at recruiting like we did for so long it was preposterous to expect to beat anyone.

Now we've recruited at an elite level 2 of the last 3 years. Its proper to now expect to beat anyone on our schedule. Even Alabama.

 

[jakez4ut]

on the rushing stats...i think the stats alone don't necessarily tell the tale. as KB said...sort of....what it does do is give you an indication of who controlled the game.

rushing stats in and of themselves may not mean much. like in the 90's, FL actually ran the ball quite effectively. especially in games they CONTROLLED. like when they're up 21+ points, salting the game away. which they did to us a few times.

same could be said about how we rant he ball last year. a) it was our intent to run the ball b) we were successful at it (on the whole).

so we were able to control the pace of the game, TOP for the opponent etc....this is why i like that stat ESPN has on 'game control'. i think that is a better indicator of whether or not you are dictating to your opponent by doing what you want to do, and at the same time preventing the other team from doing what they want to.

now, running the ball seems to be the shortest route to doing that, but it could be spread offenses that generate 1st down after 1st down and get up quick or pro style offenses that hit big plays early....it could be anything. bottom line....are you the ones dictating to the opponent...?