Florida game confidence

#203
#203
He's fat from grazing on anything too slow to get out of reach of his jaws.

I grew up in one of the little towns that border the south side of Lake Okeechobee. In the late 60s & early 70s you seldom saw a gator on the lake...now the water lizzards are everywhere...and from the looks of that one caught on the noth side of the lake (which is approx 35 miles wide), they're feeding quite well.
 
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#204
#204
82_VOL_83 said:
So now it's two plays that cost them the game? The lack of the first down and THEN the blocked punt? One play will lose a game but one play is not why Michigan lost. Michigan lost because collectively to that point in the game they had an insufficient lead to cover a one play mistake. In other words, they never should have been in that position. In the OK game last year, one play cost us the game, but we should never have been in that position. Had we executed even a single first down more than we did in the final quarter and a half, we would have won. The one PI play lead to the loss, but it wasn't why we lost.
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I'm 100% certain you didn't understand the context of my first sentence. I was repeating the question asked by the poster I responded to. I've not said anything about 2 plays costing them the game, nor will I. It was the last play and the last play only.

And btw, how much more subjective are you gonna get? Now the lead that they had built through the first 125 plays or so wasn't good enough to cover the the last inexplicable play? Lol!

You guys are dealing in fantasy, in subjective stuff that didn't actually happen....stuff you ask, "what if this or that had or hadn't happened?" I'm simply dealing in objective fact, where things stood in that game with one play left to run.....Michigan has the lead UNTIL THAT ONE, LAST, SINGULAR PLAY WAS RUN......and then they didn't have the lead and lost. It's as simple as that, and no amount of questions about some fictitious "what if" about whether or not they should've thrown on 3rd and 6 on the opening drive of the game so they could convert it and keep the ball for 3 more plays or whatever is gonna change the outcome of that game.....only the ridiculous fumbled punt and return for TD by Michigan State actually did.
 
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#205
#205
Reefa_Madness said:
He's fat from grazing on anything too slow to get out of reach of his jaws.

I grew up in one of the little towns that border the south side of Lake Okeechobee. In the late 60s & early 70s you seldom saw a gator on the lake...now the water lizzards are everywhere...and from the looks of that one caught on the noth side of the lake (which is approx 35 miles wide), they're feeding quite well.
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Reefa, we moved into a house on a canal about a half mile from where this happened in March of 85'. Next door neighbor was telling us about seeing this gator under his dock about a week before it happened. Said that he could have killed the gator but too many of the neighbors would have had him arrested.
 
#206
#206
KBVol said:
I'm 100% certain you didn't understand the context of my first sentence. I was repeating the question asked by the poster I responded to. I've not said anything about 2 plays costing them the game, nor will I. It was the last play and the last play only.

And btw, how much more subjective are you gonna get? Now the lead that they had built through the first 125 plays or so wasn't good enough to cover the the last inexplicable play? Lol!

You guys are dealing in fantasy, in subjective stuff that didn't actually happen....stuff you ask, "what if this or that had or hadn't happened?" I'm simply dealing in objective fact, where things stood in that game with one play left to run.....Michigan has the lead UNTIL THAT ONE, LAST, SINGULAR PLAY WAS RUN......and then they didn't have the lead and lost. It's as simple as that, and no amount of questions about some fictitious "what if" about whether or not they should've thrown on 3rd and 6 on the opening drive of the game so they could convert it and keep the ball for 3 more plays or whatever is gonna change the outcome of that game.....only the ridiculous fumbled punt and return for TD by Michigan State actually did.
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So all games lost by less than a touchdown with the losing team in possession are lost by one single play because they failed to execute that single play properly and didn't score a touchdown. OK, I get it now.
 
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#207
#207
82_VOL_83 said:
So all games lost by less than a touchdown with the losing team in possession are lost by one single play because they failed to execute that single play properly and didn't score a touchdown. OK, I get it now.
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I'll try one final time. To that point in the game, after 59:50 of playing time, after 125 or so total plays, Michigan was winning the game 23-21. Without that last play happening, Michigan wins the ball game based on all the work, all the yards, all the points they had accumulated to that point.......and then that play happened....and then all of a sudden, Michigan didn't win the game.

I know the line of thinking goes "no one play wins or loses a game", and in a whole lot of if not the majority of cases, I would agree. But in this case, the final outcome of a game changed and was ultimately decided by that very last play. I presume you're gonna disagree, gonna reply with some type of mocking statement, and that's ok, no worries. Guess we'll just disagree.
 
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#208
#208
It blows my mind sometimes...what some of you bishes will bish over...and over...and over...
 
#209
#209
KBVol said:
I'll try one final time. To that point in the game, after 59:50 of playing time, after 125 or so total plays, Michigan was winning the game 23-21. Without that last play happening, Michigan wins the ball game based on all the work, all the yards, all the points they had accumulated to that point.......and then that play happened....and then all of a sudden, Michigan didn't win the game.

I know the line of thinking goes "no one play wins or loses a game", and in a whole lot of if not the majority of cases, I would agree. But in this case, the final outcome of a game changed and was ultimately decided by that very last play. I presume you're gonna disagree, gonna reply with some type of mocking statement, and that's ok, no worries. Guess we'll just disagree.
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Michigan failed to execute a punt, the losing teams I mentioned failed to execute the final play of the game. I am simply agreeing with you.....1 play can make or break a game.
 
#210
#210
KBVol said:
I'll try one final time. To that point in the game, after 59:50 of playing time, after 125 or so total plays, Michigan was winning the game 23-21. Without that last play happening, Michigan wins the ball game based on all the work, all the yards, all the points they had accumulated to that point.......and then that play happened....and then all of a sudden, Michigan didn't win the game.

I know the line of thinking goes "no one play wins or loses a game", and in a whole lot of if not the majority of cases, I would agree. But in this case, the final outcome of a game changed and was ultimately decided by that very last play. I presume you're gonna disagree, gonna reply with some type of mocking statement, and that's ok, no worries. Guess we'll just disagree.
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Had Michigan converted the third down they wouldn't have punted. I think the lack of conversion on third down cost them the game.

This is easy. Your whole premise is base on a "what if". What if Michigan had gotten the punt off.
 
#212
#212
If either team is within one score of winning the game, the last play of the game is THE game winning play for those proponents anointing it as something special. It's only special if the team in the lead doesn't hold. The totality of the plays in the game are massively more significant than the one last play.
 
#213
#213
volfan102455 said:
This is the year we send those gators home with their tails tucked beneath their legs.
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I really not one who engages in hyperbole but I am very confident we win this game. I am for the first time in a long time going to bet on this game and give the points no matter what they may be!

Maybe I can find a couple of gators on here that would like to make a friendly bet? We can let the Freak or someone else to hold the money and dispense after the game to the winner.
 
#214
#214
Outofmyvolcanmind said:
Had Michigan converted the third down they wouldn't have punted. I think the lack of conversion on third down cost them the game.

This is easy. Your whole premise is base on a "what if". What if Michigan had gotten the punt off.
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Lol. MY "whole premise" is based on "what if"?? YOURE THE ONE who just said "had Michigan converted third down...." Are you just pulling my leg or what?

It's the exact opposite. I've only only dealt with what actually happened, not some mythical "what could've happened" earlier that may or may not have changed the game.
 
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#216
#216
barrylee said:
I really not one who engages in hyperbole but I am very confident we win this game. I am for the first time in a long time going to bet on this game and give the points no matter what they may be!

Maybe I can find a couple of gators on here that would like to make a friendly bet? We can let the Freak or someone else to hold the money and dispense after the game to the winner.
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I will watch early in the year to see how their QB play looks. I seriously doubt that anybody on their current roster is a 67% passer like Grier was...those don't come around too often. The lost some great talent on the defensive side of the ball and are thin at LB.

If their QB play looks the least bit shaky I will bet myself on this game, because I think we boat race them if that's the case.
 
#217
#217
08Vol said:
You said he walked into a dumpster fire and shouldn't be expected to win. Looking at these past 3 years against our 3 rivals and P5 OOC regular season he is 1-11. How many of those games could he have won? How many would 1 play change the outcome? UGA 2013 lost on 1 play, UGA 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2014 lost on 1 play, UF 2015 lost on 1 play, OU 2015 lost on 1 play. Ok so he could have easily been 6-6 on just these 1 play games. That doesn't include a dumpster fire 2013 UF or a lost 4th quarter lead to Bama 2015 which would have been the biggest win of his career. So if you really look at it, we weren't a dumpster fire likes everyone says. 2013 had an all star O-line. So against these world beaters he could have easily been 8-4, or 6-6 on 1 play games. But he is 1-11 and you are what your record says you are
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After Kiff and Dooley, this place was not a dumpster fire? You just lost all credibility and the internet.
 
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#218
#218
KBVol said:
Lol. MY "whole premise" is based on "what if"?? YOURE THE ONE who just said "had Michigan converted third down...." Are you just pulling my leg or what?

It's the exact opposite. I've only only dealt with what actually happened, not some mythical "what could've happened" earlier that may or may not have changed the game.
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Soooo "what if" Michigan executed the punt is your argument?
 
#220
#220
Outofmyvolcanmind said:
Soooo "what if" Michigan executed the punt is your argument?
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No, no, no. My argument is what ACTUALLY happened, not "what if" this or "what if" that? What ACTUALLY HAPPENED is that Michigan had the game won until the last play happened....and then they didn't have the game won.

So, they lost the game because of that last one play, not because of any other of the 125 or so previous plays that people want to pontificate on. This isn't a difficult concept.
 
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#221
#221
norrislakevol said:
I will watch early in the year to see how their QB play looks. I seriously doubt that anybody on their current roster is a 67% passer like Grier was...those don't come around too often. The lost some great talent on the defensive side of the ball and are thin at LB.

If their QB play looks the least bit shaky I will bet myself on this game, because I think we boat race them if that's the case.
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I believe your post is fair. That said, their OL really just mailed it in their back half of the season. You can't easily fix "heart." With our D and their OL woes I just do not see them doing anything much on offense, their defense should be gassed before half time, I think we romp them at Neyland.
 
#222
#222
KBVol said:
No, no, no. My argument is what ACTUALLY happened, not "what if" this or "what if" that? What ACTUALLY HAPPENED is that Michigan had the game won until the last play happened....and then they didn't have the game won.

So, they lost the game because of that last one play, not because of any other of the 125 or so previous plays that people want to pontificate on. This isn't a difficult concept.
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I comprehend your concept. Michigan also could've eliminated many other mistakes that game that would've made the punt obsolete.

That being said, if it were a one play game then yes the last play was the pure factor that caused the loss. Oh well. I'm done with this.
 
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#223
#223
Outofmyvolcanmind said:
I comprehend your concept. Michigan also could've eliminated many other mistakes that game that would've made the punt obsolete.

That being said, if it were a one play game then yes the last play was the pure factor that caused the loss. Oh well. I'm done with this.
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As am I.
 
#225
#225
I know you guys just finished up, but it is a fascinating question to me.

I personally don't think games ever (well, practically never, I'm not one to rule out fluke results) revolve on a single play. On the other hand, all 120-180 plays in a game are not equally important to its result.

In any game whose final score is within 8 points, one can usually find anywhere from a handful, up to a couple of dozen plays that could reasonably and realistically gone a different way, and that all by themselves could have flipped the game's outcome if they had.

In last year's Oklahoma game, I counted 14 key plays like that. All 14 could realistically have played out differently, with a different call by a coach, or better execution by a player or group of players. And if any one, just one, of those 14 plays had gone differently, the Vols would've won the game in regulation.

I'ver never dissected the Michigan-Michigan State game, but I suspect you could find more than one play (the final play) like that. I would bet there were at least a few. So yep, it's perfectly fine to point at the final play and say it was the game-changer. But I'll bet there were other game-changers just like it, only none of them quite to flamboyant or positioned right at the 60th minute.

It's a fun element of the game, looking for those key plays.

And your conversation was very interesting to me; thanks for it!
 
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