Face it, we suck at picking head coaches

[VFL-82-JP]

I literally answered your question. Since we can't predict the future, you use past results to establish a trendline. The trendline for Harbaugh is 8 wins minimum EVERY year with 10 wins more likely to happen than not to happen.... As a Tennessee fan that's had to deal with the last 10-12 years, I would gladly take that trade if offered......

The fact is his floor is higher than Tennessee's ceiling based on trend lines. I would have zero issue taking Harbaugh if offered.....

With that said, this is not meant to slur or talk down Heupel. I'm glad he is here.

Well that's definitely a difference between us, then.

I think we''ve been searching, these past 13 years, for a championship-caliber head coach. Which means, we should NEVER accept one who we know can not win championships. Even if he can guarantee 8 wins a season. In our world, that means beating the teams we should beat every year (3 cupcakes, Vandy, Mizzou, USCe, Kentucky, and a team from the west not named Bama), but losing to Florida, Bama, UGa, and our OOC Power 5 opponent. Even if we sometimes beat Florida or UGa (but not both), and sometimes beat the OOC Power 5 foe, which would be the "best years" with 10 wins, we're still not getting to Atlanta or the playoffs.

That's not where I want us to go. I want us competing for championships. So Harbaugh is unacceptable.

Here's hoping Josh Heupel is the guy we need, long-term. He's certainly doing great, short-term.

Go Vols!

 

[MSCE09]

If he can't do it at a place with ten times the instate talent available why do you think he would succeed here?

I think he is a guy that is comfortable with a chip on his shoulder. Given everything he appears to not be trying as hard. He's the scrappy sales guy that is ruined by giving him the corner office.

 

[West Vol]

I mean Fulmer's record was second best in our program...... And as much as I loved the Kiffin hire, there weren't significant upgrades at head coach out there when we fired him..... Using history as the barometer, Fulmer was a lock to go to Atlanta every 3 years.... Fulmer's bad seasons resulted in a 2-4 game increase the following year. I do think he made the wrong hire in Clawson and that doomed him.... His last year we were loaded with the running game and Clawson was quick and fast pass happy guy......

Also regarding his pay, I don't think anyone was very upset with giving him the extension and raise after 2007. We all hated management and Hamilton's decision making, but the bigger travesty was firing Fulmer only a year after the extension.... the announcement is what cause us to lose the Wyoming game and miss a bowl.

I also prolly would have given Fulmer 2009 since he had a great class coming in as well and the base of the defense was still returning.... From a business decision, I would have never fired him the year after an extension. That made no sense.

Lastly, its Tennessee.... I find it funny that people get worked up over how much a coach makes...... Tennessee can afford to make a football or basketball coach and now baseball coach the highest paid in the land.... I just don't get why people get so worked up over money paid to a coach that ain't coming out of their own pocket.....

Would any Tennessee fan be mad at a coach making 20 million in a season for winning a title here? No. The salary part always has me chuckling when people post "He's a top 3 paid coach, he should be putting out top 3 results" like they are some board member or top donor.

He was absolutely not a lock to go anywhere once Urban and Saban came to the SEC. He had a losing record to half the conference coaches at the time of his dismissal. His time was over. He was awful at picking coaches and his time as AD just reaffirmed that.

 

[West Vol]

Well that's definitely a difference between us, then.

I think we''ve been searching, these past 13 years, for a championship-caliber head coach. Which means, we should NEVER accept one who we know can not win championships. Even if he can guarantee 8 wins a season. In our world, that means beating the teams we should beat every year (3 cupcakes, Vandy, Mizzou, USCe, Kentucky, and a team from the west not named Bama), but losing to Florida, Bama, UGa, and our OOC Power 5 opponent. Even if we sometimes beat Florida or UGa (but not both), and sometimes beat the OOC Power 5 foe, which would be the "best years" with 10 wins, we're still not getting to Atlanta or the playoffs.

That's not where I want us to go. I want us competing for championships. So Harbaugh is unacceptable.

Here's hoping Josh Heupel is the guy we need, long-term. He's certainly doing great, short-term.

Go Vols!

I think Michigan might be the problem more so than Harbaugh. He’s been outstanding everywhere else he’s been.

 

[TNnative]

Well, over the years amidst our many coaching searches? There were two I personally suggested a few times that the "we" in your post never considered: Chris Petersen from Boise State and later Washington, and Troy Calhoun of Navy.

So while "we" may suck at picking head coaches? I am glad I am not "we".

 

[TNnative]

I think Michigan might be the problem more so than Harbaugh. He’s been outstanding everywhere else he’s been.

Actually, I think Harbaugh is more reputation than substance. He had a short run of success with the 49ers, but there are several difference between coaching college and the NFL. Look at Saban at the Dolphins and Spurrier at the Redskins. I am sure there are other examples. But just because a coach is good at coaching in college does not make him a success in the NFL. And just because coach is great in the NFL does not always mean he can succeed in college.

And I think it must be said that the years a coach is effective had a limited time frame. The game changes, and what made (for example) Bill Walsh great during his prime does not mean he is always great. As the game changes, each coach's level of greatness is determined by his ability to adapt.

Harbaugh might still be a good football coach. He just has not adapted into what Michigan needs. Or he has not brought in the right assistants and players to Michigan he needs.Not sure what it might be, and don't really care. It's Michigan.

 

[VOLnFLA]

Im not sure you can truly evaluate CJH until his guys are on the field. Even though Pruitt and Co. recruited about all of the guys if not all of them playing at least. But what Josh has done with a total cluster of a team just short months ago is nothing short of eye opening. I will say that if this man can recruit with the vig boys once all this NCAA crap is over.... It will be a fun ride. I don't thibk their is. DC that has to face us that sleeps during game week. I haven't ever seen a UT team play the way they have this season and yeah we have lost a couple i wish we had back. Pitt/ UF come to mind. Ole Miss is another. Support these guys they have the potential to be here a long time.

The players play their asses off for him to. U can tell the team loves and respects him. That's such a huge difference too. No matter what they don't give up. We haven't had that since kiffin that 1 year

 

[JMSqb11]

He was absolutely not a lock to go anywhere once Urban and Saban came to the SEC. He had a losing record to half the conference coaches at the time of his dismissal. His time was over. He was awful at picking coaches and his time as AD just reaffirmed that.

He won the division with Urban and Saban in the SEC and kept with his trend to go to Atlanta every 3-4 years…….

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

He was absolutely not a lock to go anywhere once Urban and Saban came to the SEC. He had a losing record to half the conference coaches at the time of his dismissal. His time was over. He was awful at picking coaches and his time as AD just reaffirmed that.

I had no problem with the AD considering a change after his second losing season, but have a huge problem with his replacement plan. The THIS IS TENNESSEE mindset has cost us dearly since that day and hopefully our current coach can move us back up the food chain.

On the other hand, CPF maximized the opportunities we had, but the landscape changed as other programs more successfully put leaders in place and recruiting regionally became much harder. I don't believe he or ANYBODY else could have matched his level of play in those immediate following years. Probably some guys that could have exceeded his probable production, but they needed to be on speed dial before the tearful press conference, and should have vetted their character before bringing them in.

In his AD career he made a decision worse than Hamilton and put a headcase in charge of the bell cow of the department. But once again on the other hand, he and those he put in place to oversee the balance of the department did a great job by either sustaining some and improving most of the other programs. Go do trendlines on every other program and it will be plain to see. He and his bosses all knew the clean sweep, including the AD, would be necessary to reach the conclusions of the investigation announced last week. He was the margin around the cancers we surgically removed from those offices.

The bell cow now has a SHOT at a new relevance. I have not been this excited about the use of innovation with FB since Dickey brought in the T to replace the single wing. Johnny brought in hope but was still old school in so many areas, especially in staffing and control. CPF allowed Cut some latitude, but the key was precision, not innovation. So I have hope with our new guy and project he puts us back on the map before I go to the big checkerboards in the sky.

 

[tennesseeduke]

Just stop. Freeze is a loser and a cheater. Had a losing SEC record

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Yeah I think I could have told you Derek Dooley wasn’t going to work out.

True story: I had Lou Holtz on an airplane once right after we hired DD. Everybody had left first class and he was getting his bags down and I asked him what he thought about our new hire and if he thought he would be the guy. He shook his head and said "Nope".

 

[SGMVols]

He’s really not wrong. Freeze rarely gets through a season without at least one bad loss. He lost to Louisiana Monroe this year as a 32 point favorite. To put that in perspective, that was a bigger spread than when Pruitt lost to Georgia State.

 

[volzonemat]

It's hard to predict how good a coach will be. Back in the days, I thought Justin Fuente, Tom Herman, and even Dan Mullen were great coaches and would love for them to be at Tennessee. I expected Kirby Smart to crash and burn like Muschamp, but what a surprise.

However, I think that Kirby's success at UGA had more to do with his negotiations before he was hired. Richt was not given the resources that Kirby was given. Kirby negotiated the amount of resources he needs to be successful BEFORE he was hired. Good coach + unlimited resources = great coach.

 

[Rickyvol77]

He did. Even before sanctions. Still does. That’s why he’s losing as favorites to Sun Belt teams and no one will hire him at a real program

 

[wmcovol]

Hiring coaches isnt easy....

Florida since Meyer has hired Muschamp, McElwain & Mullen....not much better than our row of stooges of Dooley, Jones & Pruitt.

 

[BeardedVol]

He won the division with Urban and Saban in the SEC and kept with his trend to go to Atlanta every 3-4 years…….

Only once did this occur, and it wasn't because of Fulmer's ability to coach, having still lost to both Urban and Saban in 2007.

Florida beat us by nearly 40 points and still lost to Auburn, LSU, and Georgia that year. This was also Saban's first and worst season, and he still trounced Fulmer by 24 points.

 

[RTE]

I agree that many coaches mentioned are underachieving this year, especially Schiano, but things aren't always as they seem. Regarding Gus Malzahn, UCF had high hopes this season. But, their gunslinger QB, Dillon Gabriel, who led the nation in many categories, went down with a broken clavicle in early September, along with several other starters. At Navy, Gabriel's replacement was a true freshman QB in his first start, and his game went pretty accordingly. But Navy can make any team look bad! Defending that triple option gives opponents fits, as evidenced by Navy falling jussst short of upsetting then #2 Cincinnati , losing 27-20. Cincy had to turn them away late to escape with a win. And Malzahn isn't a championship caliber coach? He certainly has a National Championship Ring.

There's always more than meets the eye, but Tennessee seems in capable hands with this staff, and the team goes to battle for them. Seems like a recipe for success.

 

[JMSqb11]

Only once did this occur, and it wasn't because of Fulmer's ability to coach, having still lost to both Urban and Saban in 2007.

Florida beat us by nearly 40 points and still lost to Auburn, LSU, and Georgia that year. This was also Saban's first and worst season, and he still trounced Fulmer by 24 points.

Did we win the division in 2007, yes or no?

Also we didn’t play Auburn in 2007

The trend of winning division was intact. Now the trend since 2007………

 

[BeardedVol]

Did we win the division in 2007, yes or no?

Also we didn’t play Auburn in 2007

The trend of winning division was intact. Now the trend since 2007………

Which had nothing to do with whether or not Fulmer could compete with Saban and Meyer, considering that both beat him the one season that he won the division when both were present.

 

[JMSqb11]

Which had nothing to do with whether or not Fulmer could compete with Saban and Meyer, considering that both beat him the one season that he won the division when both were present.

Once again, winning the division means you go to Atlanta.... Fulmer's trend was winning the division every 3-4 years..... He did it with Urban and Saban in the SEC.....

Better yet a simple question, are you saying that Fulmer never won the East while Urban and Saban were in the SEC?

 

[BeardedVol]

Once again, winning the division means you go to Atlanta.... Fulmer's trend was winning the division every 3-4 years..... He did it with Urban and Saban in the SEC.....

Better yet a simple question, are you saying that Fulmer never won the East while Urban and Saban were in the SEC?

And the discussion around whether Fulmer was able to compete in the SEC with the likes of Meyer and Saban, has little to do with the fact that we backed into the SECCG that year.

It was Saban's first, and "worst" year, and he still trounced Fulmer by 24 points, and Meyer still trounced Fulmer by 39 points.

The game had changed and Fulmer had zero success against Meyer in three seasons, and lost to Saban in his first and only meeting; it was only downhill at that point.

It's like trying to argue that Jim McElwain is a good head coach because he got Florida to the SECCG in 2015 and 2016.

 

[JMSqb11]

And the discussion around whether Fulmer was able to compete in the SEC with the likes of Meyer and Saban, has little to do with the fact that we backed into the SECCG that year.

It was Saban's first, and "worst" year, and he still trounced Fulmer by 24 points, and Meyer still trounced Fulmer by 39 points.

The game had changed and Fulmer had zero success against Meyer in three seasons, and lost to Saban in his first and only meeting; it was only downhill at that point.

It's like trying to argue that Jim McElwain is a good head coach because he got Florida to the SECCG in 2015 and 2016.

I never said anything about other coaches to talk about Fulmer's trend of going to Atlanta / Winning the East every 3-4 years....... That was his trendline... Others brought up Urban and Saban.and that Fulmer was not a lock to do anything while they were coaching in the league.... A simple history lesson refutes that. He did win the division while they were in the SEC. This is not debatable.

And trying to interject Shark Humper to compare vs Fulmer is laughable.

 

[BeardedVol]

I never said anything about other coaches to talk about Fulmer's trend of going to Atlanta / Winning the East every 3-4 years....... That was his trendline... Others brought up Urban and Saban.and that Fulmer was not a lock to do anything while they were coaching in the league.... A simple history lesson refutes that. He did win the division while they were in the SEC. This is not debatable.

And trying to interject Shark Humper to compare vs Fulmer is laughable.

Fulmer won the east exactly twice without beating Florida, 1997, and 2007, a decade apart. His trend of making it to the SECCG every 3-4 years, was at an end with Saban and Meyer in the conference.

Needing Florida to lose enough games for you to back into the championship game because you can't beat them head-to-head, is hardly a winning strategy.

 

[JMSqb11]

Thank God for Dan White and Donde Plowman. They're good at this. Meanwhile, we've proven we collectively suck at it.

Honestly, raise your hand if you were looking hard at Josh Heupel as our next head coach before Dan White started his coaching search. I don't think there's a single post in any thread in all of vn.com that says, back at that time period, "hey we oughta go get the Heup!"

And yet, he's proving to be a far, far better coach than the names we were tossing around.

Here's the evidence:

Jon Gruden (fired) -- I loved, absolutely loved, the Gruden threads and that gang of fellow fans. Hanging out with them for that month or so was the most fun volnation.com has ever been. Just really, really enjoyable to be around. Nonetheless, Jon Gruden wasn't and isn't the answer. No matter how much a significant segment of us wanted him. Verdict: not a championship coach, not even a college coach.

Mike Leach (5-4) -- The fella is entertaining, absolutely gotta admit that. He's a hoot. But we don't hire head coaches for their stand-up routine. As a coach, the Pirate will never be competing for championships. He's good. Far from great. Verdict: not a championship coach.

Jim Harbaugh (8-1) -- I'm not sure anyone here ever proposed Harbaugh as Tennessee's head coach, but there was plenty of admiration from afar. And Harbaugh is a good coach. But he's always the bridesmaid, never the bride. He does well enough to get you excited, but not well enough to win big things. Verdict: not a championship coach.

Hugh Freeze (7-3) -- Even putting aside his questionable values (which we shouldn't), that 7-3 record is all beating up on scrub teams like Old Dominion and MTSU, then losing to any team with a pulse and a bit of talent. Verdict: not a championship coach.

Gus Malzahn (6-3) -- Ditto the remarks about all the wins being to scrubs. Lost to Navy, yes Navy. Verdict: not a championship coach.

Lane Kiffin (7-2) -- Along with Harbaugh, Kiffin does find success on the field. But also like Harbaugh, Lane will never get over the last hump to championships. Why not? His character. He can't get out of the way of his mouth, or his flighty nature. Will he stay long at Ole Miss? Doubtful. He'll do well enough there, maybe--maybe--to raise his value to point where it's worth overlooking his childish nature and get hired at a true blue blood program one day. Where he will promptly become Harbaugh 2.0. Always just a game or two away from making the conference championship match. Verdict: not a championship coach.

Dan Mullen (4-5) -- lotta folks on these boards wanted him, at one time or another. But he's weird. He has weird values. He and his wife give off a weird vibe. He's no leader, can't keep a locker room behind him. He can't recruit worth a spit, and doesn't even seem to want to try very hard. At this point, you have to question even his "quarterback whisperer" reputation. Should he really get credit for Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott, and Chris Leak? Is this, perhaps instead, a case of Butch Jones lucking out with naturally talented Josh Dobbs, times four? Mullen didn't recruit Leak, who was already at Florida. Dan may have had a minor role in recruiting Tebow, but that was 90% the lure of Urban Meyer as head coach. Similarly, Alex Smith was already at Utah when Mullen arrived. In fact, Dak Prescott is the only noteworthy quarterback for whom Mullen gets all (well, a lot) of the credit. So how much did he develop them and harness their skill sets, and how much did he just luck out for them being naturally gifted? One has to wonder. Anyway, overall Verdict: not a championship coach.

Justin Fuente (4-5) -- Remember when Justin was the hot commodity so many on these boards wanted? Yeah. Not a championship coach.

And none of us wanted him (we emphatically did not), but just for old Kirk Herbstreit's edification, I'll add to the tail end of the list...

Greg Schiano (4-5) -- Rutgers isn't in the Big East any more, and this fellow is not a good enough coach to be in the B10 (much less the SEC). Again, not even addressing some potentially significant values issues. Verdict: most certainly not a championship coach.

~ ~ ~
​

Honest question: who here would trade Josh Heupel for any of these coaches? Even, say, Harbaugh?

I sure wouldn't. I think Josh has more potential to be a championship caliber head coach than anyone Vol nation was pulling for in 2020 (or 2017-2018). I like where we are right now.

Go Vols!

@VFL-82-JP I somehow stumbled on our old convo in this thread. Crazy how things turned out. Your point that Heupel turned out to be a "far far better" hire may have been underestimating him haha! GBO

Also crazy to see where some on the list you made are and are not in coaching jobs.

 

[LadyVolette]

And that is an incredibly low bar to clear.

White is somewhere above “fire his ass” and somewhere below “thank God for him” to reference the OP. Donde is more of an academic and we don’t seem to be doing particularly well there, the last time I checked.

Whew.. this one did not age well lol … what a d@uche lol