ESPN Good News and Bad News, remaining schedule

#76
#76
Strickland said:
I’m assuming you didn’t watch that game because MSU was clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. There were two calls in the 4th quarter that literally (and I mean LITERALLY, as in I don’t have to watch the Penn St game to know that it was not the worst officiated game over the weekend) gave Memphis the game. It was honestly embarrassing to watch and I really hope that crew doesn’t wind up anywhere near one of our games.
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UT should have put Pitt away in the first qtr. If Milton hits those throws over the top then Pitt would have had to back their coverage up which would have left the middle and run game open. Compounding that, UT turned the ball over and committed a bunch of penalties. But even with those mistakes... Pitt won because UT didn't put them down when they had the opportunity.

MSU let Memphis be around so that a couple of bad calls or a couple of mistakes made it a loss. If MSU were 25 places better than UT nationally... Memphis wouldn't have been close enough to win.
 
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#77
#77
jeff1vol said:
I have to admit... I didn't want Kiffin either. Mainly because he's a huge douchebag. Now looking back, I was mistaken. He can recruit and coach. UT should've sucked up its' pride and hired him back when we had the chance. Ole Miss is NOT an easy place to win.
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I totally salute your honesty here. But, at the end of the day, most modern successful coaches are 'douchebags'. Saban, Meyer, et al. All arrogant jerks at their core. Sweeney puts a happy-clappy evangelical veneer on it, but he has always struck me as supremely hypocritical.

That is one thing that worries me about Heupel. He seems like a genuinely nice person. The SEC eats nice guys alive.
 
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#78
#78
BanditVol said:
I keep hearing that first part...we ran for 205 on Tech. All of our runners, including the QBs not named Bailey, averaged almost 5 yards per carry with the exception of Evans. Maybe Evans just had a bad day?

As for your point on the QBs, come on, even Milton can hit 10-15 yard outs. I guess you are exagerating for effect, but still.

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Sorry, but this is nothing to be proud of. This is a winless FSC opponent. We should have been able to run at will. Our leading rusher was our QB. Our starting RB averaged less than 3 ypc. 54 of those yards came in mop up duty. Take hooker out of the equation and our run game is a joke. Our o line couldn't create holes and the RBs couldn't create yards. Looked like they was running into a brick wall all game.

Again this will be magnified against real opponents.
 
#79
#79
When a ESPN reporter (can't remember his name) about 10 yrs ago called every Tennessee fan "uneducated trailer park trash" i then lost total respect for the company and everything it always will stand for....
 
#80
#80
franklinboy said:
When a ESPN reporter (can't remember his name) about 10 yrs ago called every Tennessee fan "uneducated trailer park trash" i then lost total respect for the company and everything it always will stand for....
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I’m sorry but when did this happen? Are you referring to Chris Fowler’s comments in 1997? If so, that’s not what he said.
 
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#81
#81
sjt18 said:
UT should have put Pitt away in the first qtr. If Milton hits those throws over the top then Pitt would have had to back their coverage up which would have left the middle and run game open. Compounding that, UT turned the ball over and committed a bunch of penalties. But even with those mistakes... Pitt won because UT didn't put them down when they had the opportunity.

MSU let Memphis be around so that a couple of bad calls or a couple of mistakes made it a loss. If MSU were 25 places better than UT nationally... Memphis wouldn't have been close enough to win.
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It’s not the same situation as the Pitt game because they did not shoot themselves in the foot like we did, the refs did that.

Oh don’t get me wrong, I 100% agree with you on the first part, but when a team gets gifted 17 points (Memphis) without having to move the ball much more than 10 yards on offense, I can’t pretend like they were the better team.
 
#82
#82
Strickland said:
It’s not the same situation as the Pitt game because they did not shoot themselves in the foot like we did, the refs did that.
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It is because the game should not have been close enough for it to matter. Good teams put opponents down when they have the opportunity and the superior ability to do it. Play around with a team like Memphis too much... you get beat.
 
#83
#83
sjt18 said:
It is because the game should not have been close enough for it to matter. Good teams put opponents down when they have the opportunity and the superior ability to do it. Play around with a team like Memphis too much... you get beat.
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While you make a fair point, it feels like we have a difference of opinion on whether or not 17 points is close. 3 or 7? Sure, I agree. But 3 possessions is excessive.
 
#84
#84
Strickland said:
While you make a fair point, it feels like we have a difference of opinion on whether or not 17 points is close. 3 or 7? Sure, I agree. But 3 possessions is excessive.
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When did the penalties occur that you think decided the game?
 
#85
#85
Titans4Vols said:
PFF, for whatever it's worth, has the Vols with the 101st graded offense, however what might come as a shock is we're the 5th highest graded defense. Only Georgia, Auburn, San Diego State and Cinci are higher.

We'll see how that changes as we hit the SEC schedule.
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How much of that PFF grade for offense comes from the turnovers and overthrown TD's??
 
#87
#87
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Do NOT go to Vegas if you think like this.

Each game is a separate entity. Trying to conflate this into a "we're slight underdogs in 3 games, so we're favored to win one...." makes zero sense.

If you're not favored to win, you're favored to lose. You get ZERO break for being close and CANNOT be the odds on favorite to win one "because we're close to favored in 3 games."

Please. Never gamble.
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I know what your thinking. Each time you roll the dice the chances are the same and if you roll 10 6's in a roll you still only have a 1/6 chance of the next roll being a 6 (assuming the dice aren't loaded).

However, using two independent events (not 3 because of the online calculator) with an FPI win probability of 48% and 49%: About a 25% chance of winning either game, and a 24% chance of winning both. 73% chance of winning one or both games. 27% chance of winning neither.

In the end it depends on the quality of the inputs (FPI)...garbage in = garbage out.

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#88
#88
HuntlandVolinColo said:
I know what your thinking. Each time you roll the dice the chances are the same and if you roll 10 6's in a roll you still only have a 1/6 chance of the next roll being a 6 (assuming the dice aren't loaded).

However, using two independent events (not 3 because of the online calculator) with an FPI win probability of 48% and 49%: About a 25% chance of winning either game, and a 24% chance of winning both. 73% chance of winning one or both games. 27% chance of winning neither.

In the end it depends on the quality of the inputs (FPI)...garbage in = garbage out.

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Don’t use reason with them. They’ll only hurt themselves with it
 
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#90
#90
VolForLife83 said:
Sorry, but this is nothing to be proud of. This is a winless FSC opponent. We should have been able to run at will. Our leading rusher was our QB. Our starting RB averaged less than 3 ypc. 54 of those yards came in mop up duty. Take hooker out of the equation and our run game is a joke. Our o line couldn't create holes and the RBs couldn't create yards. Looked like they was running into a brick wall all game.

Again this will be magnified against real opponents.
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Who said I was "proud" of it? Part of it is that we didn't need to run that much. The defense gave us great field position all day, and the passing game was working. Aside from that, I am pretty sure you didn't actually look at the stats. If you are evaluating run game efficiency, the one that matters is yards per carry. That was fine for everyone but Evans.

My take...the line could have played better, but Evans just had a bad day. It happens.

Here is what I think of your opinion...you have a subjective opinion based on watching the line that it "wasn't good". I'm going to value the stats over your subjective impression.

Doesn't mean I think we dominated Tech on the ground, but it does mean I think you are overstating when you say we "sucked". We could have done better but it wasn't that bad.

If one of your points is that we won't be able to run on the gators, then I totally agree. I do think Hooker or Milton will get a few scrambles, but our RBs will be fortunate to get 50 yards. Hope they surprise me and get 100 though.

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#91
#91
The major red flag was the first 6 quarters of the year. The last 6 quarters of offense have been pretty good. I think they're starting to settle in a little bit on offense. We're the 5th rated defense despite giving up 41 to Pitt, granted a fair amount wasn't the defense's fault. These stats are certainly incomplete 3 games into a season where most teams have played maybe 1 good team.
 
#92
#92
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Do NOT go to Vegas if you think like this.

Each game is a separate entity. Trying to conflate this into a "we're slight underdogs in 3 games, so we're favored to win one...." makes zero sense.

If you're not favored to win, you're favored to lose. You get ZERO break for being close and CANNOT be the odds on favorite to win one "because we're close to favored in 3 games."

Please. Never gamble.
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Beg to differ. I use stats both ways all the time, while gambling. It's true that you can't be in the middle of a run and say that the previous event affects the next when dice or cards are involved (you actually can in sports if you factor in injuries, psychology, etc), but setting aside the things you can factor in with sports, when evaluating the liklelyhood of a future event you can and SHOULD use collective probablity.

So if I am sitting at the blackjack table, and want to know the odds of losing the next three in a row, I can absolutely calculate that with confidence. But once I have won or lost the first one of those three, it's true that now my sample is reduced to 2, but I can still predict the odds of winning or losing those two with confidence.

Taking a step back, the most important thing for me is that if a lot of our games are around 50%, then we have a great chance of winning any one of them. And if we continue to improve those odds get better.

The FPI is based on the previous several games. It's a pretty good predictor so far as apps go, but doesn't always catch the trend. It will take it 2-3 games to adjust to an injured QB, for instance.

Regardless, where I am is that I think after UK almost shat the bed vs UTC (they were bailed out by the refs) that's one game I am much less concerned about.

I see us getting to at least 6-6, but let's see how well we play this weekend.
 
#95
#95
What a difference 2 weeks makes. Below are the updated ESPN FPI (power index) and team efficiency rankings (partial lists). now #26 in the FPI, #24 offense and #32 defense efficiencies!
Also, note that the projected record has gone up almost an entire game, from 5.9 wins to now projecting 6.9 wins.
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#96
#96
goldvol said:
10-5-21 UPDATE:
What a difference 2 weeks makes. Below are the updated ESPN FPI (power index) and team efficiency rankings (partial lists). now #26 in the FPI, #24 offense and #32 defense efficiencies!
Also, note that the projected record has gone up almost an entire game, from 5.9 wins to now projecting 6.9 wins.


ORIGINAL Post below *9-20-21
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
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ESPN Team Efficiencies
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How do they get 9/10 tenths of a win?
 
#98
#98
012A5CBF-A3B4-4589-AB67-6B117C84A459.jpegExcuse my sloppy writing on my screen, but looking at remaining schedule based on how we played this past weekend. If we continue to play similar to that. This is what I'm thinking. My gut feeling is split the toss ups and land at 7-5 for first year coach with the mess he inherited pretty good job, where both butch and Pruitt went 5-7 with better rosters in their first years.
 
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#100
#100
Titans4Vols said:
PFF, for whatever it's worth, has the Vols with the 101st graded offense, however what might come as a shock is we're the 5th highest graded defense. Only Georgia, Auburn, San Diego State and Cinci are higher.

We'll see how that changes as we hit the SEC schedule.
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PFF is a joke, I don't even think they understand how they "grade" players
 
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