ESPN Good News and Bad News, remaining schedule

[Vol_sanity]

0 chance we best Ole Miss imo. They are in a completely different league than Mizz and Kentucky. They have a legit shot at beating Alabama next week imo.

I dont think Ole miss is 0 chance. Corral can get cold, just pray its against us

 

[BeardedVol]

Yes, because I don’t see anything on what you provided that says our probable wins left on the schedule is 3.

Serious question, are you red-green color blind?

 

[goldvol]

Look at each individual matchup. They list Tennessee as the favorite in three of those games, which would get them to 5 wins. They’re underdogs in the other games, although Mizzou and KY and basically toss ups. Just going by the percentages, Tennessee would finish 5-7.

Serious question, are you red-green color blind?

that's not how probabilities work. just because we are only favored in 3 games doesnt mean we are projected to win only 3 games. being a slight underdog in two games, for instance 47% and 48% does not equate to a projected score of 0 or even less than 0.5. in fact, if you are a 47.5% free throw shooter, and you get 2 free throws, you would be an big favorite to hit at least one free throw, hitting at least one more than 70% of the time

 

[Elhanan]

The scheme seems to work fine. We just don’t have the right horses to run it. So I’m not expecting this “high powered” offense to show up in full until 2023.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

We are about to get slaughtered in SEC play with the exception of Vandy and maybe South Carolina everyone else is significantly better than us. Depth is also about to really come into play as well. We will finish 4-8 or 5-7.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

The scheme seems to work fine. We just don’t have the right horses to run it. So I’m not expecting this “high powered” offense to show up in full until 2023.

The question is will Heupel survive till 2023

 

[37620VOL]

Do you really need to me to explain the basic math of adding our existing wins, 2, to the FPI-stated probable wins left on the schedule, which is 3?

You can keep your basic math, but you may want to study probabilities.

 

[BeardedVol]

that's not how probabilities work. just because we are only favored in 3 games doesnt mean we are projected to win only 3 games. being a slight underdog in two games, for instance 47% and 48% does not equate to a projected score of 0 or even less than 0.5. in fact, if you are a 47.5% free throw shooter, and you get 2 free throws, you would be an big favorite to hit at least one free throw, hitting at least one more than 70% of the time

You don't have to try to compute a compound probability, they've broken out the FPI on a per-game basis. If FPI holds true, then we end the season with 5 wins.

 

[goldvol]

You don't have to try to compute a compound probability, they've broken out the FPI on a per-game basis. If FPI holds true, then we end the season with 5 wins.

you are very wrong, but it's amusing how confident you are.

 

[37620VOL]

According to FPI, we are closer to the "5" in 5.9 than we are rounding up to 6 at the moment.

FPI is on drugs if it thinks we have a 1 out of 10 chance of beating UF, a 1 out of 10 chance of beating UGA, or a 1 out of 20 chance of beating Bama.

 

[temptn]

You don't have to try to compute a compound probability, they've broken out the FPI on a per-game basis. If FPI holds true, then we end the season with 5 wins.

Then why even play the games, we're doomed.

 

[Boston Vol]

We are about to get slaughtered in SEC play with the exception of Vandy and maybe South Carolina everyone else is significantly better than us. Depth is also about to really come into play as well. We will finish 4-8 or 5-7.

Missouri and Kentucky are not significantly better than Tennessee.

 

[BeardedVol]

Then why even play the games, we're doomed.

Key word "if".

 

[Boston Vol]

Then why even play the games, we're doomed.

Well that’s probably why he said if it holds true.

 

[goldvol]

FPI is on drugs if it thinks we have a 1 out of 10 chance of beating UF, a 1 out of 10 chance of beating UGA, or a 1 out of 20 chance of beating Bama.

think about it this way. Would it be unusual if we outscore Florida in one quarter?

 

[BeardedVol]

you are very wrong, but it's amusing how confident you are.

You really should read up on FPI and how it's computed, and recomputed with each game before you try to use it as a basis for your argument.
An inside look at College FPI

 

[goldvol]

You really should read up on FPI and how it's computed, and recomputed with each game before you try to use it as a basis for your argument.
An inside look at College FPI

We are having two different conversations, each speaking a different language. This is fun

 

[preacherwebb]

anyone want to take a guess at what Florida's offensive efficiency ranking is? either a number from 0-100, or the team ranking

I didn’t see anyone guess or reply, but I’m all ears. What’s the answers?

 

[goldvol]

I didn’t see anyone guess or reply, but I’m all ears. What’s the answers?

Florida has the 3rd most efficient offense, scoring a 92.8 out of 100

 

[Vol423]

Then why even play the games, we're doomed.

I agree. Team records should be determined by the geek statistics majors.

 

[37620VOL]

think about it this way. Would it be unusual if we outscore Florida in one quarter?

Maybe 1 out of 10 quarters, sure.

 

[goldvol]

Maybe 1 out of 10 quarters, sure.

there you go then. 1 out of 10 quarters equates to 4 out of 40 quarters equates to 1 out of 10 games, or about 10% chance.

 

[37620VOL]

think about it this way. Would it be unusual if we outscore Florida in one quarter?

Basically, for those 3 games (UF/UGA/Bama), I think it would be very generous to give us half the odds of victory that FPI is giving.

 

[37620VOL]

there you go then. 1 out of 10 quarters equates to 4 out of 40 quarters equates to 1 out of 10 games, or about 10% chance.

Now you need the lesson in probabilities.

 

[goldvol]

Basically, for those 3 games (UF/UGA/Bama), I think it would be very generous to give us half the odds of victory that FPI is giving.

you may be right. it's just useful to have some basis for determining the odds. according to the FPI link Bearded Einstein posted above, FPI historically seems to do decently