ESPN Good News and Bad News, remaining schedule

#52
#52
Boston Vol said:
Missouri and Kentucky are not significantly better than Tennessee.[/QUOTE. But they are alone just by having more depth at key positions unlike us. Pruitt nuked this program on his way out it’s like we were put on probation with all the players that transferred out.
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#54
#54
goldvol said:
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies
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My take is we have a fast offense but the execution is lacking so our efficiency is low. Yes we’re putting up big points but only because we’re running so many plays. I like that we do it as it’s way more entertaining than Pruitt’s joke of an offense but it’ll lead to some lopsided losses against the big 3 unless were to the good on turnovers and moving the chains well.
 
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#55
#55
goldvol said:
well, it has been almost 20 years, so yeah, refresher would be helpful
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The fact that you can win different quarters by different amounts complicates things but if you make "quarter wins" equal then you would need 2 wins to at least "tie" the game. You would win 2 quarters as would your opponent.

Thus if you have a 10% chance of winning one quarter, you need to have that happen twice in a 4 quarter game. The probability of this happening is 5.23%
 
#56
#56
I'm sorry. MSU just lost to Memphis after struggling with La Tech in week one. They're ranked 25 places above UT in the FPI. Seems there's a lot left to shake out before that's very accurate.

Also...wonder how many naysayer heads exploded seeing that UK, Vandy, Mizzou, and USCe ALL have lower FPI's than UT. If accurate... that gives UT 6 wins and a 7th with USA.

UK dropped pretty dramatically in spite of that win over the Mocs.
 
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#57
#57
goldvol said:
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies
Click to expand...
Our Offensive Line is slow and thin. I worry about Milton’s ability to stay 100 percent during the game
 
#58
#58
37620VOL said:
The fact that you can win different quarters by different amounts complicates things but if you make "quarter wins" equal then you would need 2 wins to at least "tie" the game. You would win 2 quarters as would your opponent.

Thus if you have a 10% chance of winning one quarter, you need to have that happen twice in a 4 quarter game. The probability of this happening is 5.23%
Click to expand...
Kinda like NASCAR now, we get points for winning a quarter?! That's confusing!!
 
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#59
#59
goldvol said:
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies
Click to expand...
 
#60
#60
Offense takes some time to install. It might take Heupel all season to get to a reasonable level. That said, the offense has been better in these 3 games than it ever was under Pruitt & Co.

They’re trying to go from the Weekly Reader to the Wall Street Journal. It’s gonna take time and some improvements in personnel
 
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#61
#61
Boston Vol said:
Look at each individual matchup. They list Tennessee as the favorite in three of those games, which would get them to 5 wins. They’re underdogs in the other games, although Mizzou and KY and basically toss ups. Just going by the percentages, Tennessee would finish 5-7.
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Yeah but chances are we won't lose all of those close ones that's why it rounds up slightly.

Lets say we have a 47%, 48% and 49% chance to win three different games. Odds are we win one of those even though we are very slight underdogs in all three.
 
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#63
#63
VolForLife83 said:
We're not very good right now. We beat 2 horrible teams and lost to a less than mediocre Pitt. We couldn't run on TENNESSEE TECH. We don't have a qb who can hit a reciever past 5 yards. We have no depth. Haven't looked very disciplined. Yet, like everyone else, I remain hopeful, but thre truth is, we're about to see just how bad we are. Once this schedule opens up EVERYTHING will be magnified
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Except Pitt is not a less than mediocre team. They are a better than mediocre team.
 
#64
#64
HuntlandVolinColo said:
Yeah but chances are we won't lose all of those close ones that's why it rounds up slightly.

Lets say we have a 47%, 48% and 49% chance to win three different games. Odds are we win one of those even though we are very slight underdogs in all three.
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Do NOT go to Vegas if you think like this.

Each game is a separate entity. Trying to conflate this into a "we're slight underdogs in 3 games, so we're favored to win one...." makes zero sense.

If you're not favored to win, you're favored to lose. You get ZERO break for being close and CANNOT be the odds on favorite to win one "because we're close to favored in 3 games."

Please. Never gamble.
 
#65
#65
By the time we play KY and Mizz., maybe we'll be favored, thus giving us 7 probable wins and a bowl.
 
#66
#66
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Do NOT go to Vegas if you think like this.

Each game is a separate entity. Trying to conflate this into a "we're slight underdogs in 3 games, so we're favored to win one...." makes zero sense.

If you're not favored to win, you're favored to lose. You get ZERO break for being close and CANNOT be the odds on favorite to win one "because we're close to favored in 3 games."

Please. Never gamble.
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You are misquoting him. He did not say "...so we're favored to win one..."

What he said - exactly - was "so odds are that we win one of those even though we are very slight underdogs in all three." Which is very different, and also correct.
 
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#67
#67
SockeyeVol said:
You are misquoting him. He did not say "...so we're favored to win one..."

What he said - exactly - was "so odds are that we win one of those even though we are very slight underdogs in all three." Which is very different, and also correct.
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The odds are NOT that we win one of those games unless we're favored.

Each game is a separate occurrence.

You shouldn't gamble in Vegas either.

Edit: please show in any way, mathematically, how we should win one of 3 games we're not favored to win. Thanks.
 
#68
#68
sjt18 said:
I'm sorry. MSU just lost to Memphis after struggling with La Tech in week one. They're ranked 25 places above UT in the FPI. Seems there's a lot left to shake out before that's very accurate.

Also...wonder how many naysayer heads exploded seeing that UK, Vandy, Mizzou, and USCe ALL have lower FPI's than UT. If accurate... that gives UT 6 wins and a 7th with USA.

UK dropped pretty dramatically in spite of that win over the Mocs.
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I’m assuming you didn’t watch that game because MSU was clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. There were two calls in the 4th quarter that literally (and I mean LITERALLY, as in I don’t have to watch the Penn St game to know that it was not the worst officiated game over the weekend) gave Memphis the game. It was honestly embarrassing to watch and I really hope that crew doesn’t wind up anywhere near one of our games.
 
#70
#70
goldvol said:
you may be right. it's just useful to have some basis for determining the odds. according to the FPI link Bearded Einstein posted above, FPI historically seems to do decently
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It's hard to just talk about Tennessee football around here unless it's all "suckage".

I appreciate your efforts.
 
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#71
#71
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
The odds are NOT that we win one of those games unless we're favored.

Each game is a separate occurrence.

I shouldn't gamble in Vegas either.

Edit: please show in any way, mathematically, how we should win one of 3 games we're not favored to win. Thanks.
Click to expand...

FIFY
according to your logic, it would be easy to hit parlays
 
#72
#72
VolForLife83 said:
We couldn't run on TENNESSEE TECH.

We don't have a qb who can hit a reciever past 5 yards. We have no depth. Haven't looked very disciplined.
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I keep hearing that first part...we ran for 205 on Tech. All of our runners, including the QBs not named Bailey, averaged almost 5 yards per carry with the exception of Evans. Maybe Evans just had a bad day?

As for your point on the QBs, come on, even Milton can hit 10-15 yard outs. I guess you are exagerating for effect, but still.

1632230274091.png
 
#73
#73
VolforFootball said:
0 chance we best Ole Miss imo. They are in a completely different league than Mizz and Kentucky. They have a legit shot at beating Alabama next week imo.
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We are so fortunate that the pearl-clutching gatekeepers will never let Kiffin near the program again. So relieved Phil Paychecks stuck to his principles and hired Slingblade McGump instead of that horrible man, Kiffin.

::: bait in water, wait for strikes :::
 
#74
#74
VolInNW said:
We are so fortunate that the pearl-clutching gatekeepers will never let Kiffin near the program again. So relieved Phil Paychecks stuck to his principles and hired Slingblade McGump instead of that horrible man, Kiffin.

::: bait in water, wait for strikes :::
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I have to admit... I didn't want Kiffin either. Mainly because he's a huge douchebag. Now looking back, I was mistaken. He can recruit and coach. UT should've sucked up its' pride and hired him back when we had the chance. Ole Miss is NOT an easy place to win.
 
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