Educated guess on when SEC makes a final decision.

#53

ABINGDON VOL FAN

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#53
Anyone notice how back in April/May it was all about the death count, and how there would be 1,000,000 deaths by November....not that that was incredible inaccurate, it’s all about the case count...even though deaths have been on a steady decline.
I saw lower ranges than 1,000,000. I believe 250K was the initial low end number I remember.
 
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#54

VolFootballIsLife

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#54
Anyone notice how back in April/May it was all about the death count, and how there would be 1,000,000 deaths by November....not that that was incredible inaccurate, it’s all about the case count...even though deaths have been on a steady decline.
Remember back in April when WH Corona Task Force said that if everyone did what we were supposed to we could limit deaths to “only” 60,000? We’re at 150,000. You can say all you want about miscounted deaths but it ain’t that many... still well over 6 figures.
And “deaths on steady decline?” The death rate is lower because the average age of infection is lower. People are still dying by the 1,000s everyday. I don’t have an agenda but facts shouldn’t be ignored. Instead of beating around the bush I just wish people would say what they’re really thinking and I’ll have more respect: “Let’s continue to let people die by the 1,000s so we can say least get back to normal?!” I wouldn’t agree but I’d respect it. What’s shameful to me are those trying to misrepresent the fact that people are dying by the boatload from a pandemic. It’s a reality that some are trying to spin away and it’s crazy to me.
 
#55

08Vol

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#55
Someone in another thread, or maybe it was this one, I can't keep up...just argued that masks do no good because cases in California a month after the mandate to wear masks were up.

Not arguing, I just find it interesting.

Everybody is right, except the people we get the information from, they all promoting fear porn. Except for my source. Lol.
Not sure about California but I know that Nashville has a mask mandate and there are still a ton of people that aren’t following it. Police on Lower Broadway have issued over a thousand warnings to people that aren’t following the mandate. Mandates don’t work if people don’t follow them and the police don’t enforce them.
 
#56

08Vol

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#56
Anyone notice how back in April/May it was all about the death count, and how there would be 1,000,000 deaths by November....not that that was incredible inaccurate, it’s all about the case count...even though deaths have been on a steady decline.
The million death range was based on forecasts for us not going into a lockdown. They used the spread of H1N1 as a model for COVID19. Swine Flu infected over 60 million Americans in under a year due to a lack of shutdowns. H1N1 was a lot less deadly than COVID19. If 60 million Americans catch COVID19 in 9 months then around 1 million of them will die, partially due to hospitals being overrun.
 
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#57

RockyTop140

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#57
Who knows. I kind of don’t want them to play at this point.

I watched a couple of baseball games this weekend and it was pitiful.

And to see camera men without a person close enough to throw a grenade at them (the very definition of social distancing) wearing a mask....there’s no logic in any of this.
Its a little odd with no fans, but I still enjoyed watching the games. I would like to see college football happen still but I agree it won't be the same.
 
#58

Volador

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#58
Educated guess on when SEC makes a final decision

Well, right away, this thread has zero credibility because we all "gradu ate it" from UT.
 
#59

CR-vol

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#59
Not sure about California but I know that Nashville has a mask mandate and there are still a ton of people that aren’t following it. Police on Lower Broadway have issued over a thousand warnings to people that aren’t following the mandate. Mandates don’t work if people don’t follow them and the police don’t enforce them.
The whole mask thing is dubious. The governor and mayors don't even have legitimate authority to mandate it. I don't wear one in Wal Mart or anywhere else. Can't wait for some mask nazi to say something. Healthy people don't need to be locked down or wear masks.
 
#60
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#60
I would think that the tv networks...who will be paying almost all of the money this year with few to no fans in the stands...would need an answer in the first week of August.
My best guess is that the SEC/ACC/Big12 go with a 9 or 10 game fall schedule primarily on Disney properties (ESPN/ABC).
I think the Pac12 and Big10 play in the Spring primarily on Fox Sports properties.
no way the game is played this fall. mlb has player unions and are set up in a "bubble" to protect their players and the marlins are already going to shut it all down. and baseball is one of those "contact-less" sports. how on earth can you keep 85 student athletes on a college campus from contracting the virus and then spreading it considering there is contact between 22 players on every down. the ncaa will blow their cover regarding the institution of "student athletes" and their well being by forcing football this fall. money is important, but we are in the midst of a pandemic that is worsening because we threw people together too soon.

imo, the ncaa should have got together with the major conferences and postponed football to play in the winter semester so players could have loaded up this fall on classes. could you imagine football and basketball on at the same time? those big 10 games would be awesome in the snow.
 
#61

VOLinPD

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#61
You still watched MLB after they kneeled? Screw them....along with the NFL and NBA. As much as I love college football, if they ever start kneeling, I will never watch another game if I live to be 100. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Vilifying peaceful protest is the most anti-American thing ever. Turn off the Fox News and join the rest of us in reality.
 
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#63
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#63
This is what the chaos is about....scamdemic.
It's sad this stuff still has to be explained/refuted, but there is so much misinformation out there, and a lot of people (most people?) don't know how to interpret stats. There is a reason that Twain said "lies, damned lies, and statistics". I would like to amend it, personally, to "liars, damned liars, and social media statisticians." But I digress...

First of all, why do numbers that are low relative to the population make it a scam? It's kind of like saying after 6 months of the Civil War that it really isn't that bad...only a couple thousand have died.

It's not about the case count or the death count. It's about the mortality rate. It has always been about the mortality rate for the informed policy makers. Because the news focuses on different numbers doesn't change that. Now, the WSJ (one of the few relatively unbiased media remaining in this country) analyzed all the studies and came out with an article concluding that the best guess was 0.68%, with a confidence interval of 0.55%-0.8%. Basically this means that we are well over 90% sure that the death rate falls in that range. Here is a link. I was able to read the full article through Twitter.

How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer

So if 10,000 people get it, 68 or so will die. In comparison, if 10,000 people get the flu, about 5 will die. While that is not as bad as originally feared, it IS significant. If left unabated, total deaths in this country would be 50% higher than normal (if you do the math about 2.2 million would die if everyone got it.* In a normal year about 3 million Americans die. However, I will give you that a lot, but by no means a majority, of people who will die of covid-19 this year would have died from some other cause anyway. Experts believe we could probably expect at least a more million total deaths-4 million compared to the normal 3 million-if everyone got it)

Putting up a map of total cases as dots doesn't mean jack. As the virus washes over the country, both those numbers will go up. It may feel like this has been going on forever, but the vast majority of people have NOT had the virus.

Now, you may, feel that 0.68 does not justify shutting down the whole country. That's a values decision. We can debate it. I am honestly more inclined to this view than ever. You cannot tell me that the rioting you see is unrelated to unemployment. That said, I'm not sure anything the govt. does policy-wise is going to open up the economy, especially on the coasts. So the point is likely moot.

*We can talk about herd immunity if you want. Herd immunity probably does keep that number at about 1.5 million rather than 2.2 million.
 
#64
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#64
LargeOrange1 said:
You still watched MLB after they kneeled? Screw them....along with the NFL and NBA. As much as I love college football, if they ever start kneeling, I will never watch another game if I live to be 100. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Vilifying peaceful protest is the most anti-American thing ever. Turn off the Fox News and join the rest of us in reality.
To some people, kneeling in "peaceful protest" during the singing of the National Anthem and presentation of the Flag of the United States of America is the most anti-American thing ever. And yes, we are living in reality. Then there are those of us who sure wish we could watch our sports as an outlet or past-time without having politics and agendas pushed down our throats. We are living in reality as well.

Personally, I'm going to give the NFL a mulligan for one week. We all know the kneeling and hand holding that'll take place ... along with another anthem. If it continues past week one, I'm out on the NFL, and I may never able to be won back as a fan.

I'm a Laker fan from my youth (mid-80's) but they are dead to me right now. Could not care less. Not that he'll care, but you can tell Lebron that preacherwebb put him on the list.

If college starts "peaceful protests", that'll hurt me bad ... til I get over it. Then I'll have learned how to live without it, and moved on. I don't want to tho, but I will.

I've not watched any news or read any headlines in about 3 weeks, regardless of channel, and my life is better for it. If I can't watch a ball game without being inundated with similar news and rhetoric, I'll stop watching that too.

While I'm at it (VOLinPD, this isn't aimed at you, I'm just venting at this point), why don't these rich ball players who want to protest in the limelight do something different, something that wouldn't even offend those of us who oppose their current means of protest ... why don't Lebron get on social media and say something like, "Hey guys, we'll be playing in (name a city, obviously after virus stuff passes) and we've gotten the proper permits from the city, and we'll be meeting at (the courthouse, or wherever in that city) to protest social injustice. Y'all come out with your signs, a good attitude, and let's peacefully protest, and let our voices be heard. I'll be there. Come join me." He could do this in cities across the nation, just going there to play a ball game. There would be more media at such an event than anything short of the Super Bowl. Obama couldn't draw the crowds this would attract. They'd get a chance to present their message, with words, instead of kneeling during the anthem/flag. But Lebron would never do this. Why? Cause then he'd have to rub shoulders with the common man, those who may actually be experiencing some form of injustice or racism. It'd take time from his schedule, instead of just kneeling during the playing of the national anthem and presentation of the flag of the country he is from, and wherein he has made multi-millions of dollars ... playing a game.

Well, I feel better. Thank God for Freak, and thank God for VolNation.
 
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#65

Shaun1985

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#65
View attachment 295684
The charts disagree....

If you look at Italy or all of the previous “hot spots” ... they all look the same.
Without being political or offensive, these graphs and other countries (including NY state) are 100% pointless when looking at this pandemic and what our future holds. These other countries had very strict lockdowns and masking policies. America? LOL no. We are still debating rights with mask and such. We are no where close to these countries who are trending down.
 
#66

sjt18

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#66
I think we're gonna see in a couple more weeks, maybe a month if they really work because I see a lot more people wearing them now than I was seeing. Probably 80-20, maybe even more wearing them versus not when I got out in public and I live in area where most will be against wearing them but are probably choosing to just out of respect for others.

I think the reported case numbers are gonna continue to go up regardless.
That reasoning is probably the most perverse of all. Supposedly the same mask that "experts" acknowledge will not prevent you from breathing the virus in at all... magically becomes the Hoover Dam when you breath out. So you should wear one out of "respect" for others. How is it doing anything but supporting the irrational panic to wear a mask unnecessarily?

IF masks are as effective as some claim... the virus is going to spread. IF they aren't... the virus is going to spread and perhaps slightly faster. People are buying into the completely false claim that masks will stop the virus. They won't. Even the most unrealistic claims by those in science supporting masks warn that people should NOT have a false sense of security due to masks... the virus still escapes.

Meanwhile... we're ignoring the 800 lb gorilla- indoor situations where people with or without masks stay in close quarters for extended time. The best fixes for those situations are NOT masks but air filtration.
 
#67

EZE

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#67
Without being political or offensive, these graphs and other countries (including NY state) are 100% pointless when looking at this pandemic and what our future holds. These other countries had very strict lockdowns and masking policies. America? LOL no. We are still debating rights with mask and such. We are no where close to these countries who are trending down.
Oops, looks like somebody failed to do their research. Italians started returning to work on May 4:

Coronavirus reopening timeline: Italy eases COVID-19 lockdown as millions return to work Monday

And...what has happened to their curve since then:
1157B0BB-63D2-4C4B-B8CB-04E151514515.jpeg
Finally, this is how you provide support for what you say...rather than just grasp at the latest CNN talking points and throw them on the wall to see if they stick.

Every chart that I have reviewed has followed this trend. I live in Texas, and it appears we are starting to slide down the back side of our peak. It looks like Florida and California are, too. Once those large states get stabilized, I suspect you will see the national curve plummet, too.

But, I’ll agree that nothing is a given. I’m just using the data to make a non expert prediction.
 
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#68

TennVols12

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#68
It's sad this stuff still has to be explained/refuted, but there is so much misinformation out there, and a lot of people (most people?) don't know how to interpret stats. There is a reason that Twain said "lies, damned lies, and statistics". I would like to amend it, personally, to "liars, damned liars, and social media statisticians." But I digress...

First of all, why do numbers that are low relative to the population make it a scam? It's kind of like saying after 6 months of the Civil War that it really isn't that bad...only a couple thousand have died.

It's not about the case count or the death count. It's about the mortality rate. It has always been about the mortality rate for the informed policy makers. Because the news focuses on different numbers doesn't change that. Now, the WSJ (one of the few relatively unbiased media remaining in this country) analyzed all the studies and came out with an article concluding that the best guess was 0.68%, with a confidence interval of 0.55%-0.8%. Basically this means that we are well over 90% sure that the death rate falls in that range. Here is a link. I was able to read the full article through Twitter.

How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer

So if 10,000 people get it, 68 or so will die. In comparison, if 10,000 people get the flu, about 5 will die. While that is not as bad as originally feared, it IS significant. If left unabated, total deaths in this country would be 50% higher than normal (if you do the math about 2.2 million would die if everyone got it.* In a normal year about 3 million Americans die. However, I will give you that a lot, but by no means a majority, of people who will die of covid-19 this year would have died from some other cause anyway. Experts believe we could probably expect at least a more million total deaths-4 million compared to the normal 3 million-if everyone got it)

Putting up a map of total cases as dots doesn't mean jack. As the virus washes over the country, both those numbers will go up. It may feel like this has been going on forever, but the vast majority of people have NOT had the virus.

Now, you may, feel that 0.68 does not justify shutting down the whole country. That's a values decision. We can debate it. I am honestly more inclined to this view than ever. You cannot tell me that the rioting you see is unrelated to unemployment. That said, I'm not sure anything the govt. does policy-wise is going to open up the economy, especially on the coasts. So the point is likely moot.

*We can talk about herd immunity if you want. Herd immunity probably does keep that number at about 1.5 million rather than 2.2 million.
It’s being used as an attempt to get Trump out of office. It’s so obvious. The virus is real, the vastly over rated threat of the virus, compared to those in the past, is a scam.
 
#69

sjt18

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#69
Vilifying peaceful protest is the most anti-American thing ever. Turn off the Fox News and join the rest of us in reality.
My bigger issue is that Tebow was prohibited from wearing a Bible verse on his eye black because it violated NFL policy... but the kneeling was "OK".

You have a right to peacefully protest. You do NOT have a right to protest peacefully or otherwise while "on the clock"... to essentially use your employer as a platform to advance your own political agenda. If some news show wants to have guys on to protest whatever... then that's fine. It isn't fine when the NFL (which is I believe still has a government charter) picks and chooses whose "speech" is subject to their rules and whose isn't.|

At this point the NFL has shown no spine or respect for their fans. They deserve to lose them. Hopefully it will be enough to remind them that we pay their checks.
 
#70
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#70
My bigger issue is that Tebow was prohibited from wearing a Bible verse on his eye black because it violated NFL policy... but the kneeling was "OK".

You have a right to peacefully protest. You do NOT have a right to protest peacefully or otherwise while "on the clock"... to essentially use your employer as a platform to advance your own political agenda. If some news show wants to have guys on to protest whatever... then that's fine. It isn't fine when the NFL (which is I believe still has a government charter) picks and chooses whose "speech" is subject to their rules and whose isn't.|

At this point the NFL has shown no spine or respect for their fans. They deserve to lose them. Hopefully it will be enough to remind them that we pay their checks.


 
#71

sjt18

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#71
It's sad this stuff still has to be explained/refuted, but there is so much misinformation out there, and a lot of people (most people?) don't know how to interpret stats. There is a reason that Twain said "lies, damned lies, and statistics". I would like to amend it, personally, to "liars, damned liars, and social media statisticians." But I digress...

First of all, why do numbers that are low relative to the population make it a scam? It's kind of like saying after 6 months of the Civil War that it really isn't that bad...only a couple thousand have died.

It's not about the case count or the death count. It's about the mortality rate. It has always been about the mortality rate for the informed policy makers. Because the news focuses on different numbers doesn't change that. Now, the WSJ (one of the few relatively unbiased media remaining in this country) analyzed all the studies and came out with an article concluding that the best guess was 0.68%, with a confidence interval of 0.55%-0.8%. Basically this means that we are well over 90% sure that the death rate falls in that range. Here is a link. I was able to read the full article through Twitter.

How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer

So if 10,000 people get it, 68 or so will die. In comparison, if 10,000 people get the flu, about 5 will die. While that is not as bad as originally feared, it IS significant. If left unabated, total deaths in this country would be 50% higher than normal (if you do the math about 2.2 million would die if everyone got it.* In a normal year about 3 million Americans die. However, I will give you that a lot, but by no means a majority, of people who will die of covid-19 this year would have died from some other cause anyway. Experts believe we could probably expect at least a more million total deaths-4 million compared to the normal 3 million-if everyone got it)

Putting up a map of total cases as dots doesn't mean jack. As the virus washes over the country, both those numbers will go up. It may feel like this has been going on forever, but the vast majority of people have NOT had the virus.

Now, you may, feel that 0.68 does not justify shutting down the whole country. That's a values decision. We can debate it. I am honestly more inclined to this view than ever. You cannot tell me that the rioting you see is unrelated to unemployment. That said, I'm not sure anything the govt. does policy-wise is going to open up the economy, especially on the coasts. So the point is likely moot.

*We can talk about herd immunity if you want. Herd immunity probably does keep that number at about 1.5 million rather than 2.2 million.
Well... no. The denominator is still MASSIVELY underestimated. A study even found that some people overcome Covid and do NOT have antibodies showing they've ever had it. The best recent estimates say that the denominator in the US should be at least 10 times greater than it is and very likely greater than that. Some studies see a trend that will eventually land at around 0.1% IFR as it is recognized that MANY people have it with mild or no symptoms.

Maybe even more significantly, the IFR is VERY low for people under 50 and pretty high for people over 65 and having high risk health factors.

All in all... this simply says that the approach being pursued by our "experts" is off target and in large measure ridiculous. They are taking decisive action based on "consensus" rather than evidence.

I know there are kneejerk reactionaries who think this is about nothing but control or tanking Trump. That's not me. I'm just not inclined to do something with known risks until I see a good plan with some type of objective evidence that it will work.
 
#72

EZE

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#72
Well... no. The denominator is still MASSIVELY underestimated. A study even found that some people overcome Covid and do NOT have antibodies showing they've ever had it. The best recent estimates say that the denominator in the US should be at least 10 times greater than it is and very likely greater than that. Some studies see a trend that will eventually land at around 0.1% IFR as it is recognized that MANY people have it with mild or no symptoms.

Maybe even more significantly, the IFR is VERY low for people under 50 and pretty high for people over 65 and having high risk health factors.

All in all... this simply says that the approach being pursued by our "experts" is off target and in large measure ridiculous. They are taking decisive action based on "consensus" rather than evidence.

I know there are kneejerk reactionaries who think this is about nothing but control or tanking Trump. That's not me. I'm just not inclined to do something with known risks until I see a good plan with some type of objective evidence that it will work.
I think (a very non expert belief at that) that a high percentage of the population is simply resistant to it...meaning that they don’t get it even when exposed. This would explain the absence of the antibodies.

I saw an expert opinion somewhere that opined as much based on that expert’s review of the cruise ship passengers early on.

I also think that the charts support this theory. Once the majority of the people who can contract the virus do so, it has a hard time finding new hosts.
 
#73

EZE

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#73
Vilifying peaceful protest is the most anti-American thing ever. Turn off the Fox News and join the rest of us in reality.
Describing criminal activity as peaceful protests is also ridiculous (rioting, looting, etc.). You might want to turn off CNN and MSNBC and join reality, too.

In any event, constitutional rights are not extended to the workplace. In other words, you have no right to freedom of speech at work. A person’s employer like the NFL or MLB might allow such expression, but it is not a right. But, once such expression is made, people who disagree also have a right to disagree with it. If that means turning off a game, that is their right.
 
#74

LargeOrange1

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#74
Vilifying peaceful protest is the most anti-American thing ever. Turn off the Fox News and join the rest of us in reality.
Tell me again what they're protesting. Do you kneel at your work place? Do you disrespect the American flag? Do you disrespect our military? Do you disrespect Police Officers? All in the name of Social Justice? Take a gander at the FBI Crime stats for Chicago, Baltimore, Philly, Houston, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, etc then get back to me. Police Brutality should be way down on the list of what keeps a certain segment of the population awake at night. Join me in some reality Snowflake.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
 
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#75

LargeOrange1

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#75
My bigger issue is that Tebow was prohibited from wearing a Bible verse on his eye black because it violated NFL policy... but the kneeling was "OK".

You have a right to peacefully protest. You do NOT have a right to protest peacefully or otherwise while "on the clock"... to essentially use your employer as a platform to advance your own political agenda. If some news show wants to have guys on to protest whatever... then that's fine. It isn't fine when the NFL (which is I believe still has a government charter) picks and chooses whose "speech" is subject to their rules and whose isn't.|

At this point the NFL has shown no spine or respect for their fans. They deserve to lose them. Hopefully it will be enough to remind them that we pay their checks.
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