Prefaces: Long post, Requires an open mind, You'll have to stay with me
SN: The first part of this post is just briefing/rehashing where we've been as a program recently. So if you are too lazy to read it all, you can get to the main point by scrolling to the part that has a bunch of *******************s above it. That's where I lay out my idea/argument.
So going back to what has transpired the last 5 years, the extremely cliche, yet equally accurate story/description of what has happened to UT can be almost recited in the most avid Vol fan's sleep.
3 coaches in 3 years (5 now), 3 consecutive recruiting classes are busts (2007-2009), etc etc we all know the routine.
The average fan looks at UT's program and is frustrated at where we are and where we've been. Some find comfort in progress, some will settle for nothing less than winning right now. I'm pretty sure we call these "Posivols" and "Negavols".
Regardless of your stance on Dooley and the program, or whether you are either of the two aforementioned types of fan of the Vols, most likely you understood that when Dooley was hired, or perhaps it was obvious soon thereafter, that this job was a rebuilding job and getting back to our winning ways was going to be a process.
With that being said, here's the argument I'm about to make. You can accept it, reject it, mock it, give me a tl;dr...I honestly don't give a flip. But this just popped in my mind so I'm posting it. Buckle up because here we go...
A second ago I said that getting back to our winning ways was going to be a process. Process. PROCESS. Not exactly a fun word. In this "what have you done for me lately" world we live in, results are expected quickly and the patience of a fan base can be equated to the life expectancy of that sketchy goldfish won at the county fair.
I also feel I can say this confidently. Not even the most positive of Posivols are going to wait on Dooley if he doesn't get a signature win or at least a couple of quality wins here soon. However, the following is not necessarily an argument to wait on Dooley, but more or less an argument and analysis of Dooley that will attempt to refute those who simply say "Dooley sucks".
Getting back to the word process, I think this describes Dooley. He is a man of process. He doesn't recruit with hot sauce, he's not a quick-fix kind of guy. Over the last 3 years, that has been made evident. The progress Dooley has made has not been the kind that has shown up in the win column...yet.
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With Dooley's slow and steady approach, however, I think he could be more than merely a diamond in the rough. I believe Derek Dooley, if given enough time (key phrase) could be building a program that is geared to have sustained success over a long period of time...a dynasty if you will. However, looking at how bad the situation was when he took over, I would give a rough estimate that in order for that to happen, he would need 6-8 years. In other words, longer than he's going to get unless he starts winning some big games and gets us to at least 8-4 in the next two years (which I personally believe he will get).
If you've been paying close attention to the Derek Dooley tenure, you will notice that there has been slow/incremental progress. Just looking at the roster from where it was two years ago is huge on its own. However, I want to describe a 3 phase plan I believe Dooley has had from the beginning in order to build a "could-be" dynasty.
Phase 1: (Dooley's first two years)
Remembering back to the state of the program when Dooley chose to take this job, it wasn't merely some roster attrition and a few bad seasons. It was essentially a roster overhaul combined with a horrible culture in the midst of an NCAA investigation. Therefore, Dooley, realizing he was starting from scratch, had to build a solid foundation. With a few weeks before signing day, Dooley assembled an overall very average staff (basically all he could get considering the mess we were in) that included a few good coaching prospects (one being himself). He proceeded to recruit safe the next two years in order to bring stability to the program. This meant not going after some higher risk players but probably more talented in preference of players who may have not be as talented, but would remain with the program all 4 years and were character guys/coachable.
Phase 2: (Years 3, 4, and possibly 5)
This is the phase we are currently in, and the last phase we may see if Dooley doesn't come up with some big wins soon. Continuing though...after 2 years of attempting to bring stability to the program, it is safe to say that minus a bad loss to Kentucky that Dooley did just that. Many people will argue that is not true. "Just look at how many coaches left this off-season" they say. Well, it is my personal belief that many of the staff members Dooley had that left, minus 1 or 2, were probably ones Dooley wanted gone after year 1 but since we were still unstable as a program (recruiting wise mainly), Dooley thought better of it to keep them 1 more year. So here we are 2 1/2 years in, and we are not where we want to be as a program just yet, but we have a solid foundation as far as the roster goes, an identity on Defense schematically has been revealed (simply wanting to be a 3-4/multiple defense a la Alabama), and we've made good progress offensively. Dooley has proven that he can assemble a good staff and, probably most encouraging, we are taking more risks on the recruiting front and pursuing players that are elite.
Phase 3: (Year 6 and beyond)
This is the BOOM phase in which all of the potential turns into reality and all the fruit of the labor is shown. This stage includes essentially becoming what we once were in the "good ole days" and possibly much more. This phase will be marked by not only competing for upper-echelon players on the recruiting front, but actually landing many of them. In congruence with our elite recruiting, we will be competing for SEC and National Championships every year. Furthermore, a culture of winning will be restored back to Tennessee and could propel us into another dynasty/golden age of Tennessee football.
Here's the deal. Right now we're about 3/4 to 3/5 of the way into Phase 2. We're not where we want to be, the fruits of the labor aren't showing up in the win column just yet, but could be very very soon. The only way we can even reach phase 3 is if Dooley can plunge himself off of the hotseat and basically prove that he doesn't belong there.
The How: I personally believe Dooley gets 2 more years barring a catastrophic meltdown of a season (6-6 or worse). If Dooley doesn't get to 8 wins this year but is competitive with all rivals and goes 7-5, he will need a big 2013. If Dooley can go 8-4 this year with losses coming to only Fla, UGA, Bama, USCe, all basically top 10 programs, and goes 8-4 or better next year, I believe he's off the hot seat. Nobody's satisfied with 8-4, I'm just saying I think back to back 8-4s takes him off the hot seat.
The Why: No elite recruits want to come to a school where the coach is on the hot seat. Stability is one of the biggest things recruits look at. Once stability is complete, Tennessee will recruit like we did back in the 90s.
The BIG If: If Dooley can make it to years 4 or 5 and manage to at least make it to the SEC championship game, Tennessee will then have shifted into Phase 3. Recruiting will then take off.
The Bottom Line: Regardless of whether Dooley is the man for the job or not, he deserves respect. He took a dumpster fire of a situation, embraced UT in every way, has been a great ambassador for the program and brought back at the very least a semblance of stability. Many Posivols want to give him the benefit of the doubt for those very reasons. Also, he is full of potential. The man is a man of character, has a great personality and is an eloquent speaker, is extremely intelligent, has good pedigree and a well-known name, already has a trademark with the pants and his hair is immaculate. If he was winning, everybody would absolutely love him. Same with any other coach that's winning. A proven coach might could come in here and turn things around in 2 years or so, but honestly, the potential with Dooley is worth waiting to see. Not the whole 6 years, but at least til next year when he has a full roster that's 95 percent his. I think he can do it, and I think that he doesn't suck like a lot of people think he does. He may be slower than we would like, but I honestly think he knows what it takes to get us back and not only that, but to keep us back. I think if he was coaching a Georgia, LSU, or Bama, it wouldn't be so slow and steady because he would already have what he needs, but if he has some success this year and/or next, watch out. The rebuilding will be over and Tennessee will be back. GBO!!! VFL!!!