Great post, VolClass.
I'm not sure if I agree with it, but I like hearing well thought out arguments one way or another. You can say I'm on the fence about Dooley right now. I'd definitely like for your analysis to be correct, but I'm not so sure.
However, you're definitely correct about the issues. Our recruiting class this year is one of the worst we've had in a while and it's precisely because Dooley is perceived to be on the hot seat. The
Coaches Hot Seat blog ranks Dooley as #2 in the nation on their "hot seat rankings". I tend to think they are wrong about that, fwiw, as they have Dooley ranked higher than Joker Phillips at Kentucky and Ron Akey at Idaho; but all the same, it's hard to deny that he should be in the top 10 somewhere.
Even if you're correct and Dooley does turn out to be an A-list coach, it's difficult to see how he can win so long as there is such a huge perception that he's on the hot seat. It's obviously hurting recruiting tremendously, and you have to have top talent to compete effectively in the SEC.
I'm not sure what Dooley has to do this year, but certainly, if we go 6-6 with such a favorable schedule, and so much talent on offense, it's hard to imagine Dooley keeping his job. If we go 9-3, he's safe for another year at least and I think we'll start seeing more confidence in him.
But the two more likely scenarios are tricky. If we go 8-4, but lose to every single good team we play (Florida, UGa, Bama, SC), that's not going to be overly impressive, but probably buys him another year. But the perception that he's on the hot seat will continue to linger, so long as he lacks any sort of quality win --- making it more difficult for him to succeed.
If we go 7-5, that's more troubling. Unless we beat Bama or SC ... in which case things get confusing. That means we probably lost to Miss State and either Mizzou or Vandy. I think 7-5 with a win over Bama or SC might actually instill more confidence in Dooley, though, than a 8-4 season where we don't beat anyone good. 7-5 with losses to Miss St, Bama, and SC will be borderline on whether Dooley keeps his job. Which is why ... that's probably what will happen.
If there's any big disadvantage for Dooley, it's that he has no real opportunities to prove himself in November. It's obvious that it's going to take awhile for the defense to adjust to the 3-4 and play well under Sunseri. Seeing progress on that front might help buy Dooley more time, but ... no one is going to see holding Kentucky or Vandy to 10 points as all that impressive.
I don't know what is going to happen. I'm rooting for Dooley to win and succeed; but just don't know if it will happen. I'm not convinced he's a good coach at this point, especially given that we've seen so many other good coaches come in and turn around worser situations in a few years. But he definitely deserves credit for "restocking the cupboard" and getting the program back on track for success. It's just unclear that he's a good enough coach to really get over the hump and take things to the next level (competing for the SEC East title).