Coronavirus (No politics)

#4,751
#4,751
Proud Army Wife said:
Oh you don't need to thank me for anything. The man I decided to marry just happened to be a soldier. I'm no different than any other civilian husband/wife that supports their spouse and helps take care of their home and children.
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:)
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:)
 
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#4,753
#4,753
Proud Army Wife said:
Oh I agree. My original comment about Nashville was just based on the headlines. It would just make sense for Vandy to have more reported cases because of that. My husband has a cold and is terrified to report it because he's afraid it could cause him to have to stay longer. He's been in Korea for 10mnths and due to come home early Dec.
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Loose lips sink ships
 
#4,758
#4,758
Volsfaninva917 said:
Apparently it is for you, the death rate in the US is .027.

United States Coronavirus: 8,148,919 Cases and 221,840 Deaths - Worldometer
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Let me explain where you are going wrong. Hint: Its the total number of cases.

Currently in the US there are 5,278,753 recovered cases, 221, 843 people have died, and there are 2,649,447 active cases.

So the death rate would be calculated by the total number of people who have either died or have recovered.

So the math is 221,843/(221,843+5,278,753), which is 4%.

NOT 221,843/8,148,919, which is 2.7%

Why? Because you don't know the outcome of the current cases. Some will die, most will not.

You cannot know who or how many will die or recover, so your calculation is incorrect.

Its dead/(dead+recovered) not dead/(dead+recovered+active).

Again, math is hard.

Apparently so is reading a web page. This is from the the page you linked... all you had to do is scroll down a little:
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#4,759
#4,759
allvol17 said:
Let me explain where you are going wrong. Hint: Its the total number of cases.

Currently in the US there are 5,278,753 recovered cases, 221, 843 people have died, and there are 2,649,447 active cases.

So the death rate would be calculated by the total number of people who have either died or have recovered.

So the math is 221,843/(221,843+5,278,753), which is 4%.

NOT 221,843/8,148,919, which is 2.7%

Why? Because you don't know the outcome of the current cases. Some will die, most will not.

You cannot know who or how many will die or recover, so your calculation is incorrect.

Its dead/(dead+recovered) not dead/(dead+recovered+active).

Again, math is hard.

Apparently so is reading a web page. This is from the the page you linked... all you had to do is scroll down a little:
View attachment 314526
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Again, per John Hopkins the death rate is .027 or 2.7%
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
 
#4,760
#4,760
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#4,762
#4,762
BogeyVol said:
An even more relevant statistic would be to follow any trends in mortality rate per month as more is known about co-morbidities, therapeutics and treatment protocols. This would show more of an accurate current mortality risk as opposed to a cumulative total including the first three months when it was at its worst.
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Some people just like the drama of the situation and manipulate things to create more drama
 
#4,763
#4,763
allvol17 said:
Let me explain where you are going wrong. Hint: Its the total number of cases.

Currently in the US there are 5,278,753 recovered cases, 221, 843 people have died, and there are 2,649,447 active cases.

So the death rate would be calculated by the total number of people who have either died or have recovered.

So the math is 221,843/(221,843+5,278,753), which is 4%.

NOT 221,843/8,148,919, which is 2.7%

Why? Because you don't know the outcome of the current cases. Some will die, most will not.

You cannot know who or how many will die or recover, so your calculation is incorrect.

Its dead/(dead+recovered) not dead/(dead+recovered+active).

Again, math is hard.

Apparently so is reading a web page. This is from the the page you linked... all you had to do is scroll down a little:
View attachment 314526
Click to expand...
Even based on this, the death rate would be less than the 4% you've quoted, as most experts agree, there is a portion of the population who never develop symptoms, and therefore do not get tested. With the WHO speculating that 10% of the worlds population may have been infected, the death rate plummets, especially in the US. But again, no way to confirm those numbers without testing everyone, which is unrealistic.
 
#4,764
#4,764
Rasputin_Vol said:
And Nashville probably has the strictest COVID rules in place of any city in the conference... outside of maybe Knoxville.
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I live in Knoxville and I’ve done everything normal except I wear a mask inside places. I go out to eat, shop, etc. West town mall was packed.
 
#4,767
#4,767
allvol17 said:
Let me explain where you are going wrong. Hint: Its the total number of cases.

Currently in the US there are 5,278,753 recovered cases, 221, 843 people have died, and there are 2,649,447 active cases.

So the death rate would be calculated by the total number of people who have either died or have recovered.

So the math is 221,843/(221,843+5,278,753), which is 4%.

NOT 221,843/8,148,919, which is 2.7%

Why? Because you don't know the outcome of the current cases. Some will die, most will not.

You cannot know who or how many will die or recover, so your calculation is incorrect.

Its dead/(dead+recovered) not dead/(dead+recovered+active).

Again, math is hard.

Apparently so is reading a web page. This is from the the page you linked... all you had to do is scroll down a little:
View attachment 314526
Click to expand...

IFR is comparable to the seasonal flu, quit pushing this fake news non-sense.
 
#4,771
#4,771
Volsfaninva917 said:
Again, per John Hopkins the death rate is .027 or 2.7%
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
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Again, I get it. But regardless of what the headline says, they are calculating the MORBIDITY RATE.

Morbidity rate is the number deaths per a given population. In this case, everyone who has contracted the disease (i.e. the observed case-fatality ratio).

And the morbidity rate is 2.7%.

Again, you cannot determine what will happen to those current cases.

The death rate is 4.0% for those who have had covid and either died or recovered, not those who have had AND CURRENTLY have covid (the morbidity rate).

The morbidity rate is not the same thing as the mortality rate. I know it says "mortality analysis" but by the very definition they give concerning the calculations they are, in fact, calculating the morbidity rate not the actual mortality (aka death) rate.

Notice they carefully say "mortality analysis" not "mortality rate."

Purposeful or not, this is a statistical manipulation and presentation of the data, and they carefully do not state that it is an actual mortality rate.

They report "case-fatality" as 2.7% - that's the morbidity rate.

The mortality rate is 4%.

No where do they calculate the mortality rate - they are careful not to do that anywhere as far as I read and instead choose to obfuscate the data with "mortality analysis."

This is an example of how we as citizens need to critically analyze the data presented, how its presented, how its manipulated, and how its used. Not just for covid, but everything.

To do that we all have to read more closely and more critically and not jump to confirmation bias.
 

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#4,773
#4,773
allvol17 said:
Again, I get it. But regardless of what the headline says, they are calculating the MORBIDITY RATE.

Morbidity rate is the number deaths per a given population. In this case, everyone who has contracted the disease (i.e. the observed case-fatality ratio).

And the morbidity rate is 2.7%.

Again, you cannot determine what will happen to those current cases.

The death rate is 4.0% for those who have had covid and either died or recovered, not those who have had AND CURRENTLY have covid (the morbidity rate).

The morbidity rate is not the same thing as the mortality rate. I know it says "mortality analysis" but by the very definition they give concerning the calculations they are, in fact, calculating the morbidity rate not the actual mortality (aka death) rate.

Notice they carefully say "mortality analysis" not "mortality rate."

Purposeful or not, this is a statistical manipulation and presentation of the data, and they carefully do not state that it is an actual mortality rate.

They report "case-fatality" as 2.7% - that's the morbidity rate.

The mortality rate is 4%.

No where do they calculate the mortality rate - they are careful not to do that anywhere as far as I read and instead choose to obfuscate the data with "mortality analysis."

This is an example of how we as citizens need to critically analyze the data presented, how its presented, how its manipulated, and how its used. Not just for covid, but everything.

To do that we all have to read more closely and more critically and not jump to confirmation bias.
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They are literally giving you the mortality rate aka death rate, read into it how you choose but the death rate is not 4%. Its actually a lot less if you remove the nursing homes mishaps
 
#4,774
#4,774
volgr said:
Check out official numbers from the WHO, IFR is comparable to the seasonal flu.
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Could you provide the link to the data you are basing this on? I provided you with 10 years of CDC data.

I've been looking at their site (WHO) and can't find much in terms of actual data.

But I did find this quote from their seasonal flu FAQ:

"Illnesses range from mild to severe and even death. Hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths."

However, considering that the current Worldwide covid data shows this:

TOTAL COUNTS (as of a few seconds ago)
ACTIVE: 8,685,242 • DEATHS: 1,102,240 • RECOVERIES: 29,354,525

again, I would say 1.1 million deaths in 7 months (March to October) demonstrates that Covid is not comparable to the seasonal flu.

Its between 1.7X and 3.8X as deadly as flu in 70% of the time (based on the 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide flu deaths).

And its more virile in that it has infected roughly 7.8X - 13X as many people (5 million for the flu and 39 million for covid) in 70% of the time.

Those numbers would only increase over a full year, but we'll have to wait until March to see how much.

As for IFR rates being comparable, the data that I find shows that the IFR for the flu is 2.5X that of covid (minimum).

It seems clear that Covid and the seasonal flu are not comparable. Which is, in fact, the fake news part.

If you have different or better numbers, then provide the link and I'll gladly take a look and reevaluate my position.
 
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#4,775
#4,775
Volsfaninva917 said:
They are literally giving you the mortality rate aka death rate, read into it how you choose but the death rate is not 4%. Its actually a lot less if you remove the nursing homes mishaps
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I explained to you how they are not giving mortality rate. And it does not say mortality rate anywhere in that document. Again "mortality analysis" not "mortality rate."

I don't know what else I can do to educate you about this if you don't want to listen and learn.

I do this for a living.

I'll trust the "Dr." in front of my name and data in peer reviewed journals.

You are free to "read into it how you choose."

But your conclusions are wrong.
 
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