Coronavirus (No politics)

[Shades]

Unfortunately, Italy's number of cases have shown no signs of slow down and are still increasing at a fast rate.

China's numbers did finally slow down, but only after they locked nearly the entire country down with nobody allow out anywhere.

 

[yoyoyoyo]

Unfortunately, Italy's number of cases have shown no signs of slow down and are still increasing at a fast rate.

China's numbers did finally slow down, but only after they locked nearly the entire country down with nobody allow out anywhere.

View attachment 267096

The death rate has not followed the same increase as the confirmed cases so that good news

 

[bluegrasser]

The death rate has not followed the same increase as the confirmed cases so that good news

But what’s scary/confusing/interesting is the huge gulf between “confirmed” and “recovered”. This tells me it takes a long time for infected people to be healed up. Or they might still be at risk for death. Just not sure how to read a chart like that.

 

[kiddiedoc]

But what’s scary/confusing/interesting is the huge gulf between “confirmed” and “recovered”. This tells me it takes a long time for infected people to be healed up. Or they might still be at risk for death. Just not sure how to read a chart like that.

I don't think a case can be considered "recovered" until the person has a negative PCR test. If clearing the virus takes 1-2 weeks, there's going to be a decent lag.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I don't think a case can be considered "recovered" until the person has a negative PCR test. If clearing the virus takes 1-2 weeks, there's going to be a decent lag.

We should start getting an idea what our own effective mortality rate is starting end of next week right? As cases start to show negative results and patients are discharged.

On a side note do the professionals see any merit in community exposure helping to build immunity? No not the Boris Johnson approach just wondering about follow on breakout severity thoughts.

 

[Shades]

It is misleading trying to determine rate of change of deaths visually from a plot where the death values are plotted as small values on a plot with large numbers.

Unfortunately the death rate as been increasing as the number of confirmed cases has been increasing.

This can be seen in the numbers chart below. Also if you do the plot so that each parameter has its own vertical axis, you can see that the death rate is increasing just as fast (in fact faster than) the case rate.

BTW, I am looking for good news too, but am finding it hard to come by.

 

[Power T-Rev]

I think after all is said and done we're going to realize that this was overblown

 

[Zues1]

I believe this apparent drop in mortality rate is a function of more readily-available testing. I.e.: a larger number of people with mild to moderate symptoms are getting tested and diagnosed, increasing the denominator.

This drug was also mentioned in today's presidential presser.

 

[headhunter15]

I think after all is said and done we're going to realize that this was overblown

I think after all is said and done we're going to realize that this was overblown

I hope because The Five on FOX is saying a recession or depression is coming if Trump doesn’t shut everything down for 3-4 weeks.

 

[Pepe_Silvia]

I hope because The Five on FOX is saying a recession or depression is coming if Trump doesn’t shut everything down for 3-4 weeks.

How would shutting down everything help to avoid a recession?

Doesn't make any sense.

 

[kiddiedoc]

We should start getting an idea what our own effective mortality rate is starting end of next week right? As cases start to show negative results and patients are discharged.

On a side note do the professionals see any merit in community exposure helping to build immunity? No not the Boris Johnson approach just wondering about follow on breakout severity thoughts.

Yes to the first.

No to the second -- would put the elderly and frail at risk.

 

[kiddiedoc]

This drug was also mentioned in today's presidential presser.

Cool, I didn't get to listen earlier but will catch it tonight.

 

[Shades]

We should start getting an idea what our own effective mortality rate is starting end of next week right? As cases start to show negative results and patients are discharged.

On a side note do the professionals see any merit in community exposure helping to build immunity? No not the Boris Johnson approach just wondering about follow on breakout severity thoughts.

I am not a health care professional but a scientist/engineer that looks at the corona data and information and tries to draw logical conclusions. Not sure that really matters much one way or the other, but here are some thoughts.

There are a few trains of thought on this that are circulating in the health care realm:

1) Let it burn through the population unhindered with an estimated 70% of the population infected. Cons include hospital systems overwhelmed, other sick people not able to get into hospitals, infected people dying that normally wouldn't have died with normal hospital operation, and non-corona sick people dying because they can't get proper care in hospitals. Economic losses due to disruption of 70% of population sick and effects on families and businesses. Death rate is the highest on this one, with a death rate for younger populations higher than for the two cases below due to the complications listed above.

2) Implement some types of controls to slow the rate of infections so that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed. Controls are not absolute and allow some movement of the population, so this slows the time it takes for it to work its way through the population, and hopefully slows it enough so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Economic losses due to disruption of normal business functions.

3) Implement a rigid total lockdown on the entire country, allowing no free movement except possibly limited movement to grocery stores, emergency personnel, etc. This drastically slows the number of infections and helps ensure a functional hospital system. Economic losses due to disruption of normal business functions. China did this but only after their hospital systems got overwhelmed.


One complication is that the virus reappears again and this repeats again 6 months later with a mutated version.

There has also been a scientific study that shows that the corona infection can be worse the second time a person catches it compared to the first time they caught it. If their antibody levels have dropped below a certain threshold level by the time they catch it the second time, then their second infection can be worse than the first.

There have already been reports of people catching this a second time after they have been discharged as recovered.

So there are no easy solutions with this one.

 

[kiddiedoc]

If chloroquine is a relatively safe drug and shows promise in trials, should it be considered for prophylactic use in an at risk population? Maybe even started now for the most at risk?

I have never heard of it being used for viral prophylaxis, but it has been used as malaria prevention for decades. Geriatric ID is not my specialty though.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Siap




Japanese flu drug appears ‘effective’ in coronavirus treatment in Chinese clinical trials – TechCrunch



Based on results of clinical trials conducted with affected patients in both Wuhan and Shenzhen by Chinese medical authorities, Japanese-made flu drug favipiravir (also known as Avigan) has been shown to be effective in both reducing the duration of the COVID-19 virus in patients and to have improved the lung conditions of those who received treatment with the drug.

The trials involved 340 patients in total, and since the drug has already been developed and approved for use in treating flu, it has a “high degree of safety,” according to China science and technology ministry official Zhang Xinmin, who spoke to reporters on Wednesday according to The Guardian. The tests showed a reduction in the period during which patients tested positive for the new coronavirus from 11 days down to just four, and showed improvements in the lung condition of around 91 percent of patients treated with favipiravir, compared to just 62 percent for those without among the trial participants.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Yes to the first.

No to the second -- would put the elderly and frail at risk.

I figured we wouldn’t do proposeful community exposure thus the Boris Johnson comment. Was just wondering if anybody had an idea on whether the population will naturally build up an immunity or not. Ultimately a vaccine would probably drive that chance to nil like all the other great people killers we devised vaccines for.

 

[headhunter15]

How would shutting down everything help to avoid a recession?

Doesn't make any sense.

Agreed. FOX has been pretty reasonable and calm during this, but that was crazy and fear mongering to say.

 

[Shades]

I don't think there is enough known about this virus to determine how well herd immunity is developed. Especially with the study about the second infections with the capability to be worse than the first.

 

[hog88]

I hope because The Five on FOX is saying a recession or depression is coming if Trump doesn’t shut everything down for 3-4 weeks.

Shutting everything down is what's going to drive us into a recession or worse. They are idiots!

 

[FREAKIN ORANGE]

With every American submitting to a test , would we be giving a big , country wide sample of DNA to the government as well ? Heck , may solve some crimes

 

[Shades]

With every American submitting to a test , would we be giving a big , country wide sample of DNA to the government as well ? Heck , may solve some crimes

With "23 and Me" and "AncestryDNA", that's pretty much already been done voluntarily on a large part of the population. I'm sure gov already has or can get access to those services.

 

[Catbone]

I'm also worried about long term problems if infected

 

[Regulator]

I swabbed what I imagine will be our hospital’s first positive coronavirus patient earlier today. Should have test results in 3-4 days.

 

[Shades]

I swabbed what I imagine will be our hospital’s first positive coronavirus patient earlier today. Should have test results in 3-4 days.

Have you just received testing kits or have you had kits for a while?

 

[SCRocket]

Well said. Best case: we heed the recommendations, take our lumps, and see a quick rebound in the economy and a return to normal in a couple of months. Worst case: we are reckless and we experience hospitals overrun, care rationing, and needless loss of life.

Thank you all for continued thoughtful discussion.

God Bless you I hope you watch yourself and be safe!