Everyone is quoting numbers fro different sources and then bring their analytical opinion about it. Still not a reason to call people senile or make comments about Carter county or state that the problem with the virus is overstated because only old people are dying. You are bringing zero value to Volnation.
Several people have posted articles and information analyzing both a positive look at numbers so far and a more grim look at the numbers so far. Both sets of inputs have been informative and useful.
And I am in agreement with not taking the current info to either extreme, because at this point in time, we just don't know either way. Any of us can think we know, but we really won't until it plays out.
Is all of the economic shutdown justifiable? Can we really know at this time? How do we determine that? By whether or not hospital systems are pushed well beyond capacity? By whether or not people of all ages without Covid died because they couldn't get hospital service? By the total number of final deaths? If so, then what is the acceptable number of deaths that would or would not have justified a shutdown? 60k, 100k, 500k, 1M? It is difficult right now because we don't know the final answer.
There are aspects of the current information that point to a serious situation, and there are aspects of this info that points to a not-so-serious situation. Until we get further info, there probably can't be any definitive statements made in either direction.
But we have to continue to take a critical look at the incoming information, from both ends of the spectrum, without hysteria or over-reaction at either end.
The Germany data looks very positive and let's hope it stays that way.
There is also something concerning about the Germany data, and that is that 98.6% of infected Germans have not yet recovered or died. This can also be seen in the graph below.
Italy started out with the same pattern, and as time went on, the Italian death rate has increased, with only slightly more people recovering than dying, and with a death rate increasing over time. Germany does have an initially lower death rate than Italy did for a given number of infections.
Which way will Germany go as the 98.6% with an undetermined state start to either recover or die? We don't yet know. Will it follow Italy, or South Korea? We don't know yet. Let's hope for South Korea route.
An excerpt of an article describing the good news and bad news about Germany's hospitals is at the bottom of this post.
My optimistic side wants this thing to end up being just another seasonal flu. But there are still some nagging questions:
Are many more countries going to have smaller effects like South Korea, or will they end up with collapse of the normal function of their hospital systems?
Is this thing just now getting spun up in many countries, or is it about to wind down?
Is Italy's death rate significantly higher than other countries because of a slightly older population, and/or because their hospital system got overwhelmed?
How do overwhelmed hospital systems affect the death rate of across all ages of illnesses other than Covid?
Is South Korea's death rate lower than other countries because it didn't let their hospital systems get overwhelmed?
Why did China do an extreme lockdown of 400 million people if this was no worse than the flu? China tends to be more concerned about their economy than their people, so why a near 100% shutdown that would crush their economy?
Click button below if you want to read the excerpt on the German healthcare system as Covid-19 ramps up.
There’s some good news and some bad news for people in Germany right now. The good news is that Germany is home to one of the most modern, richest and most powerful health-care systems in the world. We have an "excellent health-care system, perhaps one of the best in the world,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in her address to the nation on Wednesday night. It is better equipped for dealing with the corona epidemic than the systems of many other countries.
The bad news is that large parts of this system are already overwhelmed. Depending on how fast the number of infections increases in the days and weeks to come, we could experience a collapse and failure of the system. And it will be deemed to have failed if people have to die because of a shortage in staff, beds and equipment -- and not because this illness is incurable.
In northern Italy, the collapse of the health-care system has been evident for weeks. "Soon, we will no longer be able to provide treatment for the sick,” Attilio Fontana, the president of Lombardy said. There aren’t enough ventilators in the Italian crisis region, and doctors are forced to make new decisions each day over who gets access to a ventilator and who is left to die.
"Triage” is the term given to this cruel choice, and it is a procedure that originated in military medicine. If there are suddenly masses of injured people, priorities have to be assigned. Rescue workers sift through the victims and then hand out bracelets or tags that are usually color-coded.
Red is for patients requiring immediate treatment. Yellow is for patients who can wait. Those given green are the lowest priority and have to wait the longest for help. The helpers do little for patients in the blue category. They are so seriously injured or ill that any effort would be futile under those circumstances.
Germany may soon have to take a similar approach.
In recent days, a chief physician from the Rhineland had to admit to a colleague that he only has seven ventilators at his hospital. He said he needs 13 in order to get through a major wave of serious infections.
And that wave will come - that much is certain. "We expect that things will really heat up in the next two weeks, also here in Germany," says Axel Fischer, managing director of the München Klinik, a Munich-based chain of hospitals. His hospital treated the first patients infected with the coronavirus in January. He fears the crisis will have a "massive impact.”
The coronavirus is mercilessly exposing the problems that have been burdening the German health-care system for years: the pitfalls of profit-driven hospital financing. The pressure to cut spending. The chronic shortage of nursing staff. The often poor equipping of public health departments. The lag in digitalization.
"We are preparing for imminent catastrophe,” says Rudolf Mintrop, head of the Dortmund Klinikum, the city’s main hospital. He calculates that the wave of sick will hit hospitals at full force in 10 to 14 days. The chancellor has warned that German hospitals will be "completely overwhelmed" if too many patients with serious coronavirus infections have to be admitted within a very short period.
Ultimately, the question of life and death will be decided in the intensive care units. The answer will depend on how many ventilator beds there are, how many doctors are on call and how many nurses are able to provide care for critically ill patients.
To prevent a collapse of intensive care units, the German federal and state governments have taken drastic measures that are bringing public life in the country to an almost complete standstill. They have closed stores, sealed borders and shuttered schools, daycare centers and playgrounds.
Everyone is quoting numbers fro different sources and then bring their analytical opinion about it. Still not a reason to call people senile or make comments about Carter county or state that the problem with the virus is overstated because only old people are dying. You are bringing zero value to Volnation.
The truth is: old people and people with pre-existing conditions are the overwhelming number of serious cases and deaths. The initial, repeatedly stated "fact" that this virus is more infectious than others because it lives on surfaces longer is proving to be misleading, as the virus may live that long but is generally proving not to be infectious for that length of time. The repeated claims (including in this very thread) that we'll see huge numbers of people infected, martial law, etc. etc. are proving to be untrue daily.
I called out a poster for deliberately posting "facts" that are either 100% wrong or misleading. His type of post why this hype machine has taken off and driven millions, literally, into unemployment over the span of two weeks. His type of post is why we have not pumped, not tapped, but slammed the brakes on our economy and totally ignored all other possibilities. His type of post shows that many people are reacting on emotion, not data.
I am pissed off because I am watching my life, economically, get ground to a halt. And as more information comes out and the days go by it seems downright silly that this has happened.
So I'd rather bring "no value" by calling out BS and being mad than bring about damage by inciting panic and spreading misinformation.
I am also a prepper, and have close to a year's worth of freeze dried and canned food stored, not to mention ammo, medicine, and water. I also had N95 level masks on hand because I do woodwork, so use varnishes, so always had a need for the masks. But I don't know that I would call being prepared for disasters "selfish". I would certainly not run out today and buy up all the read, toilet paper, and hand sanitizer I could find, but I think it makes sense to slowly build up your supplies of basic needs to keep your family alive and healthy through a long term crisis. I also have a vegetable garden, and although I don't do canning, I have a lady friend who does can, so she cans vegetables for me in exchange for work around the house I do for her.
When I lived on the Florida coast most of the oldtimers I knew were always prepared because they had survived multiple hurricanes and have been through weeks without electricity and bare shelves in stores, so it had gotten me to thinking could I ensure my loved ones' survival with just keeping enough food, medicine, and other basic necessities to get me through a week or two longer than my weekly trips to the grocery? In most cases here in Tennessee, probably yes, although the recent tornadoes here in mid-Tn reminds us we can easily be without power for weeks, and will not be able to easily maintain perishable food. But it is the real catastrophes that we prep for. Same reason we purchase major health insurance plans. We can pay for trips to the doctor for boo boos out of pocket; but it is the catastrophic illness that could break the bank. I take the same approach with providing the basic needs for my loved ones.
Prepping can certainly be expensive when you go to the store and buy 2 of something, knowing you are going to put 1 item away, and possibly never, ever use it, and it also takes a lot of storage space to put back lots of supplies, so it is definitely a decision that has to be weighed, and you have to look at the pros and cons of it, and if you do choose to do it you have to decide how long you think you want to prep for. I laugh at myself sometimes because I originally started off thinking I needed to be able to keep us going for at least a month, but slowly increased my supplies until I ran out of storage room for more. And admittedly at times I have thought is this really necessary?
But the truth is it almost becomes an addiction because you are always thinking do I have enough of this? Enough of that? Oh well.
How many of you think if numbers stay relatively stable this week or at least what is expected to be trending well, we continue the same path where everything is basically closed with no school activities etc, past March 31?
The truth is: old people and people with pre-existing conditions are the overwhelming number of serious cases and deaths. The initial, repeatedly stated "fact" that this virus is more infectious than others because it lives on surfaces longer is proving to be misleading, as the virus may live that long but is generally proving not to be infectious for that length of time. The repeated claims (including in this very thread) that we'll see huge numbers of people infected, martial law, etc. etc. are proving to be untrue daily.
I called out a poster for deliberately posting "facts" that are either 100% wrong or misleading. His type of post why this hype machine has taken off and driven millions, literally, into unemployment over the span of two weeks. His type of post is why we have not pumped, not tapped, but slammed the brakes on our economy and totally ignored all other possibilities. His type of post shows that many people are reacting on emotion, not data.
I am pissed off because I am watching my life, economically, get ground to a halt. And as more information comes out and the days go by it seems downright silly that this has happened.
So I'd rather bring "no value" by calling out BS and being mad than bring about damage by inciting panic and spreading misinformation.
I'm saying a poster that simultaneously claimed an infection hitting an additional 500 Georgians (0.00005% of the population) was hard evidence of the spread of the illness, while moments before making an argument that countries were in bad shape indicated by a "high" percentage of the population having infection, was being misleading at best.
If I reference the CDC data 20-30% of cases in the United States as of March 16 are classified as requiring hospitalization. I would argue that a case requiring hospitalization is not classified as mild.
If I reference the CDC data 20-30% of cases in the United States as of March 16 are classified as requiring hospitalization. I would argue that a case requiring hospitalization is not classified as mild.
Now we are learning a lot more people are infected than previously believed. This means several things. The virulence of this virus is grossly overstated. The mortality rate is much lower than previously stated. People are walking around with no symptoms or they are recovering in days. The aged community with immune problems make up the majority of deaths as with any virus outbreak. The reaction to this outbreak has been fueled by an irresponsible media creating tremendous economic damage to this country.
The problem is reporting only that number is disgustingly irresponsible and intentionally paints a tiny fragment of the full picture. Continue lapping it up.
I followed the link. It looks like world-o-meter is an estimation based on internet data mining. It doesn't seem to be too far off on overall cases with official totals lagging true cases and it has what looks like it could be useful information. However, I do not agree that the designation of mild cases is accurate (it states 100% of cases are mild currently). I will trust the CDC information which their website states is based on reports from health departments in the United States which state 20-30% of cases currently require hospitalization. If a case requires hospitalization would you consider it mild? To follow that, if it requires ICU care would it be considered mild?
Now we are learning a lot more people are infected than previously believed. This means several things. The virulence of this virus is grossly overstated. The mortality rate is much lower than previously stated. People are walking around with no symptoms or they are recovering in days. The aged community with immune problems make up the majority of deaths as with any virus outbreak. The reaction to this outbreak has been fueled by an irresponsible media creating tremendous economic damage to this country.
The possibility of the virus running through that aged and/or immunosuppressed community (which is rather large in the US) and over stressing the nation’s hospital system isn’t a concern?
Somehow laying this at the feet of the media is...I’m not even sure what it is.
The problem is reporting only that number is disgustingly irresponsible and intentionally paints a tiny fragment of the full picture. Continue lapping it up.
That number is being reported along with deaths and recovered numbers every time I see the numbers reported on all network cable news. They are grouped together.
The possibility of the virus running through that aged and/or immunosuppressed community (which is rather large in the US) and over stressing the nation’s hospital system isn’t a concern?
Somehow laying this at the feet of the media is...I’m not even sure what it is.
So every year the flu hits we react the same way? What happened in 2017? Not a word. 61,000 deaths worldwide but the media didn't create the panic it has over this. You're trying to rationalize crippling this country economically. Immune compromised individuals will always be a high risk group. The problem is now, every time someone gets a cough they run to the hospital because of the false reporting of it's virulence.
Curious as to what our experts are classifying as a mild case? China’s mild included pneumonia without hospitalization. Are all countries using a standardized classification?
Knowing college kids and what goes on during spring break, any university accepting kids back from spring break is inviting a local epidemic. Considering proximity in classrooms, dorms, etc, the risk was already sky high even without what kids might bring back from the break.
Thank YOU! Sometimes people forget that 2+2 = 4. Head full of Equations; no common sense. The WHO is Headed by a Questionable Character; anyhow. Google Him.
I've always had the impression the UN (and organizations like WHO) sought to put minorities (third world types ) in charge rather than go on competence and experience. Probably for a couple of reasons - the real one being "fairness" ... can't claim one political sphere like the US or China or Russia dominate. Some of those leaders have been pretty good - most seem pretty mediocre at best. The UN seems to dither a lot, and produce real results seldom.
So every year the flu hits we react the same way? What happened in 2017? Not a word. 61,000 deaths worldwide but the media didn't create the panic it has over this. You're trying to rationalize crippling this country economically. Immune compromised individuals will always be a high risk group. The problem is now, every time someone gets a cough they run to the hospital because of the false reporting of it's virulence.
Curious as to what our experts are classifying as a mild case? China’s mild included pneumonia without hospitalization. Are all countries using a standardized classification?
I would be interested to see any universal definition of this and i imagine it would vary somewhat if you asked a few different people. Mild, moderate, and severe are inherently subjective terms. I think it’s probably reasonable to assume that people are classifying ICU cases as severe, outpatient cases as mild. Moderate I’m not sure and any hospitalization may be considered severe. But again I’d be interested to see an official designation.
It’s probably more useful to look at the proportion that require hospitalization as an important group given the high usage of resources. To contrast the potential burdens of Covid-19 versus the flu, less than 2% of cases of influenza in 2017 (the most recent year verified) required hospitalization based on the CDC data from that year versus 20-30% so far in the United States from Covid.
I am also a prepper, and have close to a year's worth of freeze dried and canned food stored, not to mention ammo, medicine, and water. I also had N95 level masks on hand because I do woodwork, so use varnishes, so always had a need for the masks. But I don't know that I would call being prepared for disasters "selfish". I would certainly not run out today and buy up all the read, toilet paper, and hand sanitizer I could find, but I think it makes sense to slowly build up your supplies of basic needs to keep your family alive and healthy through a long term crisis. I also have a vegetable garden, and although I don't do canning, I have a lady friend who does can, so she cans vegetables for me in exchange for work around the house I do for her.
When I lived on the Florida coast most of the oldtimers I knew were always prepared because they had survived multiple hurricanes and have been through weeks without electricity and bare shelves in stores, so it had gotten me to thinking could I ensure my loved ones' survival with just keeping enough food, medicine, and other basic necessities to get me through a week or two longer than my weekly trips to the grocery? In most cases here in Tennessee, probably yes, although the recent tornadoes here in mid-Tn reminds us we can easily be without power for weeks, and will not be able to easily maintain perishable food. But it is the real catastrophes that we prep for. Same reason we purchase major health insurance plans. We can pay for trips to the doctor for boo boos out of pocket; but it is the catastrophic illness that could break the bank. I take the same approach with providing the basic needs for my loved ones.
Prepping can certainly be expensive when you go to the store and buy 2 of something, knowing you are going to put 1 item away, and possibly never, ever use it, and it also takes a lot of storage space to put back lots of supplies, so it is definitely a decision that has to be weighed, and you have to look at the pros and cons of it, and if you do choose to do it you have to decide how long you think you want to prep for. I laugh at myself sometimes because I originally started off thinking I needed to be able to keep us going for at least a month, but slowly increased my supplies until I ran out of storage room for more. And admittedly at times I have thought is this really necessary?
But the truth is it almost becomes an addiction because you are always thinking do I have enough of this? Enough of that? Oh well.
I always wonder what we are doing wrong when you look at expiration dates on canned food and then compare them to the production dates for canned stuff in C rations we ate in the Army. We didn't even always get the stuff heated, but it was edible when you were hungry - even things like pork slices with potatoes. With all the advances, you'd think today's regular canned food would have similar shelf lives.
