China Thread

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HLfTsuiGpG8

Anyone heard the comms recording between our P-8A Poseidon aircraft and the Chinese Navy when it flew by the islands in May 2015?

I would've had to been on auto pilot because I would be laughing my azz off. Oh, the "meow" across the comms around the 2:24 mark is priceless!
 
Last edited:
They are scrapping their 1 kid per family policy

The damage has already been done. China should contract by some 300-400 million over the next century.

But, when you have a billion people, you can't help but wield some global influence.
 
Speaking of population numbers, I sometimes have to pause and contemplate how roughly 1 out of every 3 human beings on Earth is either Chinese or Indian.

Staggers the mind. I can't even process that. It's like attempting to contemplate infinity.
 
The damage has already been done. China should contract by some 300-400 million over the next century.

But, when you have a billion people, you can't help but wield some global influence.

You act like that's a bad thing.
 
You act like that's a bad thing.

For China it is.

Short-term, it was a relatively smart decision, because it kept the uneducated, unskilled poor (aka, the breeders) from growing even more disproportionately relative to the rest of the Chinese population, a process that helped China rapidly push its way to the global forefront after opening itself to the West.

Long-term, it was an unwise decision, as its population is aging and may never fully recover. Once the demographic slump occurs in a nation, it's very difficult to reverse the trend. Typically, the best that can be hoped for in such cases is mere population stability. That is, unless you have robust immigration, but East Asia isn't exactly known for that; they're all too ethnocentric. Will be interesting to see if any of the East Asian nations ever finally budge on immigration, since it's likely many of their populations will crash in the future.
 
Last edited:
For China it is.

Short-term, it was a relatively smart decision, because it kept the uneducated, unskilled poor (aka, the breeders) from growing even more disproportionately relative to the rest of the Chinese population, a process that helped China rapidly push its way to the global forefront after opening itself to the West.

Long-term, it was an unwise decision, as its population is aging and may never fully recover. Once the demographic slump occurs in a nation, it's very difficult to reverse the trend. Typically, the best that can be hoped for in such cases is mere population stability. That is, unless you have robust immigration, but East Asia isn't exactly known for that; they're all too ethnocentric. Will be interesting to see if any of the East Asian nations ever finally budge on immigration, since it's likely many of their populations will crash in the future.

I don't understand concerns about aging populations. It's self correcting. The old people will die off leaving a young vibrant population with plenty of resources. When the elderly become a drain you simply speed up the transition by cutting off life extending medications. In fact, first country that has the political will to start terminating the elderly will have a significant advantage over the rest of the world.
 
For China it is.

Short-term, it was a relatively smart decision, because it kept the uneducated, unskilled poor (aka, the breeders) from growing even more disproportionately relative to the rest of the Chinese population, a process that helped China rapidly push its way to the global forefront after opening itself to the West.

Long-term, it was an unwise decision, as its population is aging and may never fully recover. Once the demographic slump occurs in a nation, it's very difficult to reverse the trend. Typically, the best that can be hoped for in such cases is mere population stability. That is, unless you have robust immigration, but East Asia isn't exactly known for that; they're all too ethnocentric. Will be interesting to see if any of the East Asian nations ever finally budge on immigration, since it's likely many of their populations will crash in the future.

China's number one goal is stability. A big part of stability for 1.3 billion people is sustainability. This includes economic concerns, resources, and (recently) the environment.

When the older generation dies off, they will still have a huge population. The future will be dictated by the ability of countries to successfully sustain and balance a robust middle class. Booming populations aren't helpful in that endeavor.

It was a much needed policy to achieve their goal.
 
They are scrapping their 1 kid per family policy

This law was never enforced across the board. Major cities yes, fine was 40,000RMB, but in the countryside everyone has 4 to 6 kids same as US farmers back in the 30's and 40's. Most middle class Chinese have 2 or 3 kids as for the last 10 years they could afford the fine. This revision will change nothing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
I don't understand concerns about aging populations. It's self correcting. The old people will die off leaving a young vibrant population with plenty of resources. When the elderly become a drain you simply speed up the transition by cutting off life extending medications. In fact, first country that has the political will to start terminating the elderly will have a significant advantage over the rest of the world.

China's number one goal is stability. A big part of stability for 1.3 billion people is sustainability. This includes economic concerns, resources, and (recently) the environment.

When the older generation dies off, they will still have a huge population. The future will be dictated by the ability of countries to successfully sustain and balance a robust middle class. Booming populations aren't helpful in that endeavor.

It was a much needed policy to achieve their goal.

You guys are certainly right by at least one measure: resource access. By many estimates, China will be able to domestically produce only 25% or so of its water needs within the next couple of decades and already cannot feed itself. In this sense, the policy is good, and it has helped spearhead China's charge towards a competing middle class.

But one thing about that middle class. Although China's sheer population size will keep it competing and relevant for the rest of conceivable human history (as I suggested in my first post on the matter), both the population contraction and the gender gap will inevitably result in an extended period of stagnant growth at best, if not even depression at worst (before a recovery can occur).

Take the population contraction. Since it may contract by 400 million within the next century, that means that, while the country may be much younger in 2100, there will still be fewer of them and fewer workers. While this may or may not be a necessity, it is not necessarily a recipe for sustained growth, especially when we consider the following....

The gender gap means that many single males will be without a mate. Although it is making strides, China is not a tech powerhouse yet, and it may in fact never become a tech powerhouse that appeals to even its own skilled populace, let alone an international one. With so many skilled Chinese males left without a mate and with a market that may never be as appealing to them as the US or Europe, China risks experiencing even more brain drain than that which it currently does.

Again, this may have been the necessary move for them, and I don't think there's any doubt that China will remain globally relevant and even an economic powerhouse. I do not, however, think the decision was ideal (necessary or not), and I think it could be a factor that keeps China from ultimately becoming the superpower to which it seems intent.
 
Last edited:
Speaking of population numbers, I sometimes have to pause and contemplate how roughly 1 out of every 3 human beings on Earth is either Chinese or Indian.

Staggers the mind. I can't even process that. It's like attempting to contemplate infinity.

Come to Plano. No contemplation required.
 
Not sure how the policy fed into this, but the nation currently has a crazy male/female imbalance.

It was certainly an unintended consequence. In Chinese culture, the male continues the family name and traditions. The female is literally wiped off the family tree when married (but reinserted into the husband's family tree).

The imbalance is really bad. My wife says that there are no less than 30 families/guys constantly inquiring about her, her status, and effectively on a proverbial waiting list if she was to ever change her mind.
 
It was certainly an unintended consequence. In Chinese culture, the male continues the family name and traditions. The female is literally wiped off the family tree when married (but reinserted into the husband's family tree).

The imbalance is really bad. My wife says that there are no less than 30 families/guys constantly inquiring about her, her status, and effectively on a proverbial waiting list if she was to ever change her mind.

Does your wife teach English in China or something?

Is she ethnic Chinese?

Just trying to understand the comment.
 
It was certainly an unintended consequence. In Chinese culture, the male continues the family name and traditions. The female is literally wiped off the family tree when married (but reinserted into the husband's family tree).

The imbalance is really bad. My wife says that there are no less than 30 families/guys constantly inquiring about her, her status, and effectively on a proverbial waiting list if she was to ever change her mind.

The number of female babies aborted, just because they are female, would probably eclipse the current US population. It has been illegal in China for sometime now to use ultrasound to detect the gender of unborn babies, of course that created a black market for the ultrasound service. This change in law will impact this situation some.
 
The number of female babies aborted, just because they are female, would probably eclipse the current US population. It has been illegal in China for sometime now to use ultrasound to detect the gender of unborn babies, of course that created a black market for the ultrasound service. This change in law will impact this situation some.

Yeah, it was/is quite a problem.

Hell, my wife's grandparents were furious with her parents for keeping her. They wanted to shove her off on different family members, adopt her out, abortion, etc. The thing that prevented any of that was her parents' party status (and jobs as a result). If they didn't keep her, they would have been out of the party, out of their cushy jobs, fined, black-balled, etc.
 
When the elderly become a drain you simply speed up the transition by cutting off life extending medications. In fact, first country that has the political will to start terminating the elderly will have a significant advantage over the rest of the world.

Wow... But there is truth to that.

The best way to achieve that goal and free the generations behind them would be for a country to default on all debts AND all future liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, etc).
 
Last edited:
PRC and Taiwan leaders to meet this weekend for the first time since the civil war ended in 1949.

The current Taiwanese leadership apparently wants closer economic/political integration with the PRC, but opposing parties and many Taiwanese are obstinate on the matter.

And we all know where the PRC stands on the matter, which is to say that, if not for the US Navy, the PRC would have already invaded and reclaimed Taiwan/Formosa yesterday.
 

VN Store



Back
Top