CBJ to Vol Fans

[supersmo18]

You people and your ignore lists. When are you going to learn that nobody here gives a damn who is or isn't on your ignore list.

I didn't say it because I thought you cared. I said it because I wanted to, because it's a message board, and I can.

 

[KBVol]

You don't have anything more than your interpretation of results on your side.

Here are some facts.

This year, talent has predicted 100% of the the games UT has played. We beat the two inferior rosters, and lost to the three superior rosters. In fact, Tennessee's results have gotten better as their competition has gotten better. We lost by 24, then 3, then 1 to the 4th, 3rd and 2nd most talented rosters we will face all year. Remember, many Vegas's books opening line showed that UF should win that game by 1 point. Bettors shifted the line to UT's favor, not the objective handicappers that created the initial line.

This means that talent has predicted 15 of the 17 games since Jones has taken the helm. That means that 88% of Butch's games at UT turned out exactly like his roster would predict, with the 2 game difference being losses to a lessor talented Mizzou and Vanderbilt last season.

For comparison's sake, over that same span, Nick Saban is 15 of 18 for 83%. Nick Saban has lost 3 games to lessor talented opponents since Butch Jones has been at UT.

Here is the bottom line:

This year talent is 5-0. Butch has not lost a game he should win, nor won a game he should have lost.

For all of you who perceive this Florida team to be the worst in a generation, you are missing that Florida has performed exactly to talent expectations this year. They lost the game to Bama that had more talent, and won against the teams with lessor talent. Yes, Muschamp is the coach with the biggest negative effect on talent, but Florida is still the second most talented team in the SEC, and 6th in the nation. Tennessee lost to them by 1 point. Last year's disaster means no more to this team, than the previous year's 11 win season had on last year's Florida team.

The wheels haven't come off. The only problem is that our perception, very rarely matches reality. You wanted improvement over last year? Well, UT didn't get beat by 50 against an out of conference top 5 opponent this year, cut the margin of defeat against UGA in half, playing them at their place with no key injuries to their roster. This UT team was within a point of beating the Gators for only the second time in a decade. Let's not forget that Muschamp was coaching for his job, and the Gators had two weeks to prepare after being embarrassed.

Talent matters immensely, and Jones is, despite your assertions of "mounting losses", and with obvious glaring deficiencies at certain position groups, doing exactly what talent should expect this year.

MyBloodIsOrange.com: Silence Legion, Save Your Poison.

With all due respect Daj, there's just no way UT should've lost that game to Fla given the state of that program currently, their bad/lame duck coach, their awful qb, our homefield advantage/fan support, how our defense was playing, etc. talent be damned.

 

[daj2576]

Hey Daj, very curious to see the same type of analysis done for David Shaw at Stanford and/or D'Antonio at Mich St. Am I incorrect in thinking that those 2 collect multiple wins each year well beyond what their talent would predict?

I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but if memory serves they all tended to perform within a game or so of talent.

 

[qwerty]

Have you guys forgotten that we are replacing EVERYBODY on the offensive line? Try being a playcaller when you can't just call a regular 5 step drop back pass due to fear of an 8 yards loss and a blow to the qb. Blair is a bust, Gilliam tore his acl and he was a walk on, 18 year olds are trying to block grown men. The fact that people at some point this season thought we could win 8 games against our schedule tells how good of a coaching staff we have. Patience is the only word for it. We need patience as a fan base. They are bringing in the players, just chill out.

 

[BeecherVol]

You don't have anything more than your interpretation of results on your side.

Here are some facts.

This year, talent has predicted 100% of the the games UT has played. We beat the two inferior rosters, and lost to the three superior rosters. In fact, Tennessee's results have gotten better as their competition has gotten better. We lost by 24, then 3, then 1 to the 4th, 3rd and 2nd most talented rosters we will face all year. Remember, many Vegas's books opening line showed that UF should win that game by 1 point. Bettors shifted the line to UT's favor, not the objective handicappers that created the initial line.

This means that talent has predicted 15 of the 17 games since Jones has taken the helm. That means that 88% of Butch's games at UT turned out exactly like his roster would predict, with the 2 game difference being losses to a lessor talented Mizzou and Vanderbilt last season.

For comparison's sake, over that same span, Nick Saban is 15 of 18 for 83%. Nick Saban has lost 3 games to lessor talented opponents since Butch Jones has been at UT.

Here is the bottom line:

This year talent is 5-0. Butch has not lost a game he should win, nor won a game he should have lost.

For all of you who perceive this Florida team to be the worst in a generation, you are missing that Florida has performed exactly to talent expectations this year. They lost the game to Bama that had more talent, and won against the teams with lessor talent. Yes, Muschamp is the coach with the biggest negative effect on talent, but Florida is still the second most talented team in the SEC, and 6th in the nation. Tennessee lost to them by 1 point. Last year's disaster means no more to this team, than the previous year's 11 win season had on last year's Florida team.

The wheels haven't come off. The only problem is that our perception, very rarely matches reality. You wanted improvement over last year? Well, UT didn't get beat by 50 against an out of conference top 5 opponent this year, cut the margin of defeat against UGA in half, playing them at their place with no key injuries to their roster. This UT team was within a point of beating the Gators for only the second time in a decade. Let's not forget that Muschamp was coaching for his job, and the Gators had two weeks to prepare after being embarrassed.

Talent matters immensely, and Jones is, despite your assertions of "mounting losses", and glaring deficiencies at certain position groups, doing exactly what talent should expect this year.

IF they have the second best roster in the SEC he is the worst head football in the history of the game.

The second bold is irrelevant considering how the first three quarters of the game played out.

UT didn't lose the game because UF field superior talent and came out ticked and better prepared.

 

[daj2576]

With all due respect Daj, there's just no way UT should've lost that game to Fla given the state of that program currently, their bad/lame duck coach, their awful qb, our homefield advantage/fan support, how our defense was playing, etc. talent be damned.

So we should ignore the greatest single determining factor in all of football, because you don't want it to be true? Then blame the coach because of it?

Makes sense to me...

 

[Wylo]

Daj,

I respect your opinion and your education and your process.

Football is played by people, not robots. Your data is just that. Data.

UT losing to Florida x2 and Vanderbilt(last year) are not simply explained by going all billy bean and excusing each loss with data.

You're clearly smarter than I'll ever be. I'm cool with that. But I don't buy your data as a way to determine a football game.

 

[mrorange211]

I didn't say it because I thought you cared. I said it because I wanted to, because it's a message board, and I can.

 

[peppervol]

Be patient. The longer you guys stay quiet, the more checks I can cash before everyone realizes I am not a good coach.

Hey check out my recruiting.

Nevermind Vanderbilt and Florida embarrassments, just get my offense properly described in the media.

Brick by brick

Slogan by Sloan

Loss by loss.

The new Tennessee way.

Wylo, you are way above that....... I hope.

 

[daj2576]

Daj,

I respect your opinion and your education and your process.

Football is played by people, not robots. Your data is just that. Data.

UT losing to Florida x2 and Vanderbilt(last year) are not simply explained by going all billy bean and excusing each loss with data.

You're clearly smarter than I'll ever be. I'm cool with that. But I don't buy your data as a way to determine a football game.

I appreciate your honesty and the compliment.

We can agree to disagree.

I find that the truth is that most people do, they like to believe in their feelings over what can be proven.

You aren't alone.

 

[daj2576]

IF they have the second best roster in the SEC he is the worst head football in the history of the game.

The second bold is irrelevant considering how the first three quarters of the game played out.

UT didn't lose the game because UF field superior talent and came out ticked and better prepared.

Your rationalizing your feelings and ignoring the data.

I did editorialize the last few paragraphs. Don't confuse my editorial content with the hard truth of the data.

Florida won the game because they were more talented, that is what happens 70% of the time.

If you want to rationalize, then do so but feelings are not an acceptable way to counter data.

 

[UTwild82]

Here is what many of the Super duper, ultra mega, really real fans seem to not understand.

It's not that Tennessee lost Saturday. It's HOW they lost. If you had told anyone on this board we would be 2-3 after the Florida, most of us (myself included) Would not have been surprised. The reason so many of us are upset is how we played during this loss. We lost to Florida while they played horribly. We found a way to play worse. We lost a very winnable game. On offense, we pulled a Dooley and found a way to lose. Butch deserves some heat for that.

I don't want Butch fired. Hell, now that I'm calmed down I don't want anyone fired. This team deserves to get 3 years under the same coaches. I just don't understand the rationale that if you question the coaching staff at this point you are not a real fan. Questioning what we saw IMO is true fandom . Blind loyalty does not make you a more true fan.

 

[BeecherVol]

Your rationalizing your feelings and ignoring the data.

I did editorialize the last few paragraphs. Don't confuse my editorial content with the hard truth of the data.

Florida won the game because they were more talented, that is what happens 70% of the time.

If you want to rationalize, then do so but feelings are not an acceptable way to counter data.

Not at all.

UT lost the football game because they needed a stats guy in the press box (maybe your future calling ) to remind Bajakian that the defense was pitching a shutout against an inept offense, that hadn't moved the football into fg range through 3 quarters.

 

[HollowaytoSeivers]

Freak asked nicely for us to be nice so I'll just leave it alone.

Nice journey on the high road, joevol.

 

[BeecherVol]

Here is what many of the Super duper, ultra mega, really real fans seem to not understand.

It's not that Tennessee lost Saturday. It's HOW they lost. If you had told anyone on this board we would be 2-3 after the Florida, most of us (myself included) Would not have been surprised. The reason so many of us are upset is how we played during this loss. We lost to Florida while they played horribly. We found a way to play worse. We lost a very winnable game. On offense, we pulled a Dooley and found a way to lose. Butch deserves some heat for that.

I don't want Butch fired. Hell, now that I'm calmed down I don't want anyone fired. This team deserves to get 3 years under the same coaches. I just understand the rationale that if you question the coaching staff at this point you are not a real fan. Questioning what we saw IMO is true fandom . Blind loyalty does not make you a more true fan.

Most people also get too caught up in what a team is gonna do against another team 4 months before they play a game.

 

[UTwild82]

Most people also get too caught up in what a team is gonna do against another team 4 months before they play a game.

True.

 

[daj2576]

Not at all.

UT lost the football game because they needed a stats guy in the press box (maybe your future calling ) to remind Bajakian that the defense was pitching a shutout against an inept offense, that hadn't moved the football into fg range through 3 quarters.

Not a bad idea!

Actually they do need a stats guy in the press box. The stats guy would tell them on almost every fourth down play to go for it. The risk of turning it over on downs is less than being scored upon on the ensuing drive after a punt, almost regardless of field position.

The stats guy would tell them to kneel in the end zone instead of running it out on kickoffs. The risk of getting less than 25 or fumbling the ball is much greater than the reward that you run it out past the 25 or the extremely unlikely chance that you run it back for a touchdown.

 

[McDad]

You don't have anything more than your interpretation of results on your side.

Here are some facts.

This year, talent has predicted 100% of the the games UT has played. We beat the two inferior rosters, and lost to the three superior rosters. In fact, Tennessee's results have gotten better as their competition has gotten better. We lost by 24, then 3, then 1 to the 4th, 3rd and 2nd most talented rosters we will face all year. Remember, many Vegas's books opening line showed that UF should win that game by 1 point. Bettors shifted the line to UT's favor, not the objective handicappers that created the initial line.

This means that talent has predicted 15 of the 17 games since Jones has taken the helm. That means that 88% of Butch's games at UT turned out exactly like his roster would predict, with the 2 game difference being losses to a lessor talented Mizzou and Vanderbilt last season.

For comparison's sake, over that same span, Nick Saban is 15 of 18 for 83%. Nick Saban has lost 3 games to lessor talented opponents since Butch Jones has been at UT.

Here is the bottom line:

This year talent is 5-0. Butch has not lost a game he should win, nor won a game he should have lost.

For all of you who perceive this Florida team to be the worst in a generation, you are missing that Florida has performed exactly to talent expectations this year. They lost the game to Bama that had more talent, and won against the teams with lessor talent. Yes, Muschamp is the coach with the biggest negative effect on talent, but Florida is still the second most talented team in the SEC, and 6th in the nation. Tennessee lost to them by 1 point. Last year's 4-8 disaster means no more to this year's Florida team, than the previous year's 11 win season had on last year's Florida team.

The wheels haven't come off for the Vols. The only problem is that our perception very rarely matches reality. We wanted improvement over last year? Well, UT didn't get beat by 50 against an out of conference top 5 opponent this year, cut the margin of defeat against UGA in half, playing them at their place with no key injuries to their roster. This UT team was within a point of beating the Gators for only the second time in a decade. Let's not forget that Muschamp was coaching for his job, and the Gators had two weeks to prepare after being embarrassed.

Talent matters immensely, and Jones is, despite your assertions of "mounting losses", and with obvious glaring deficiencies at certain position groups, doing exactly what talent should expect this year.

MyBloodIsOrange.com: Silence Legion, Save Your Poison.

Good post as always, daj. How's baby girl?

 

[MedicT]

Wylo, you are way above that....... I hope.

Somewhere near Nashville in a cubicle sits a fellow named Wylo praying that UTC can pull off a miracle.:crazy:

 

[tn4elvis]

Here is what many of the Super duper, ultra mega, really real fans seem to not understand.

It's not that Tennessee lost Saturday. It's HOW they lost. If you had told anyone on this board we would be 2-3 after the Florida, most of us (myself included) Would not have been surprised. The reason so many of us are upset is how we played during this loss. We lost to Florida while they played horribly. We found a way to play worse. We lost a very winnable game. On offense, we pulled a Dooley and found a way to lose. Butch deserves some heat for that.

I don't want Butch fired. Hell, now that I'm calmed down I don't want anyone fired. This team deserves to get 3 years under the same coaches. I just don't understand the rationale that if you question the coaching staff at this point you are not a real fan. Questioning what we saw IMO is true fandom . Blind loyalty does not make you a more true fan.

Nice post.I feel the same way.

 

[daj2576]

Good post as always, daj. How's baby girl?

Thanks!

She's behaving about like most other Vol fans...vomiting and pooping on everything she can, or crying.



She's amazing and I am terrified. It hasn't all sunk in yet.

 

[McDad]

Thanks!

She's behaving about like most other Vol fans...vomiting and pooping on everything she can. Then crying uncontrollably.

She's a natural. Good to know she doesn't have much of her mom's gator genes.

 

[supersmo18]

:yes: lol

 

[BeecherVol]

Not a bad idea!

Actually they do need a stats guy in the press box. The stats guy would tell them on almost every fourth down play to go for it. The risk of turning it over on downs is less than being scored upon on the ensuing drive after a punt, almost regardless of field position.

The stats guy would tell them to kneel in the end zone instead of running it out on kickoffs. The risk of getting less than 25 or fumbling the ball is much greater than the reward that you run it out past the 25 or the extremely unlikely chance that you run it back for a touchdown.

Numbers and risks are useful no doubt. We took a risk late in the 3rd quarter that bit us in the butt and flipped the game.

 

[LA Vol]

UF tried to hand us a game we were 100% capable of winning. So excuse or defend or spin all you want, but don't say that we weren't "supposed" to win that game. When you're given an opportunity, you're "supposed" to take it.