Butch says it takes 6 to 7 years to build a program in the SEC

#878
#878
99gator said:
The problem with numbers, and I can only speak to Florida here....is that they don't show what's going on.

If I have a class of 25 and 18 are still at the school, then you are factoring in 7 players who aren't even on the team. In addition, it doesn't account for people who clearly don't match their ranking.

Jeff Driskel was a 5 star recruit. At some point, he stops being a 5 star high school player and becomes/became a bad college quarterback.

So, if you look at Florida's recruiting some of the rankings look great. But, there are busts and transfers all over the place.

It's great that Thomas Holley and Gerald Willis were 5 star defensive tackles. One is no longer in school and the other may never see the field due to medical reasons.

There is more to analysis than numbers. You have to look beyond those numbers
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We are SO much luckier than UF. UT doesn't have attrition or injuries. In fact UF is the only team in the nation that does. Poor gators.
 
#879
#879
butchna said:
It's ridiculous that Vols fans are slurping Gator fans just to try to prove a point. Think 99Gator has anything invested in propping up his coach? :)
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I am not saying that Florida is without talent. But if you think the talent is close to where it was during the championship years of days gone by, you are mistaken...IMO.

As another poster said, much of the success is due to the fact that, let's face it, the division is pitiful. Downright awful.

Tennessee gave a game away. They surprised Ole Miss and the rest of the teams they have beaten are dog****
 
#880
#880
ReaderVol said:
Don't you know all things are always equal. Saban or J Mac could restart football aat UAB and in year 3 they'd win the national title because they're good coaches. 3 years is all a coach ever needs.
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Yep. JM,Freeze, Saban, Miles and Meyer all walked into the exact same situation Butch did. I totally forgot about that.
 
#883
#883
ReaderVol said:
We are SO much luckier than UF. UT doesn't have attrition or injuries. In fact UF is the only team in the nation that does. Poor gators.
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True. I mean take last year. UF had to replace their entire OL and DL. They had to play the most freshman in the country. They had to deal with no OL recruited two years prior.

Oh wait, that was Tennessee. Yes, poor Gators.
 
#884
#884
99gator said:
The problem with numbers, and I can only speak to Florida here....is that they don't show what's going on.

...

There is more to analysis than numbers. You have to look beyond those numbers
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Gator, your argument boils down to, "add more detail, and your model will be better." Yes. Almost always true. Never helpful to point out, though, unless you are willing to put in the extra work to add that extra granularity.

Every model of anything real world is an approximation. The better your resolution, the more precise the model can be. Not necessarily more accurate, but more precise.

Now that we all agree on that: I don't see anyone here with a better predictive model than DAJ's. Do you?

[far as I can tell, almost all the rest of us are thumb-gauging it with some combination of instinct and emotion]
 
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#886
#886
ReaderVol said:
Don't you know all things are always equal. Saban or J Mac could restart football aat UAB and in year 3 they'd win the national title because they're good coaches. 3 years is all a coach ever needs.
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Thank you so much lord readervol for responding for me, you must've known my fingers were sore. I tell you what buddy, I'm jumping on the CBJ bandwagon and I'm gonna let you steer us on to the promised land. I was so wrong for blaming CBJ for the four losses this year, anybody with a lick of sense knows that every loss we've had these last 3 years is that fool dooley's fault. I'm gonna sit on the bandwagon with my mouth wide open so I make sure I don't miss out on any of the bs that CBJ feeds me and the rest of vn. But what I didn't know that you kept a secret from the rest of vn is that CBJ bs taste like fruity pebbles. That was so selfish of you for not sharing those fruity pebbles.
 
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#887
#887
99gator said:
The problem with numbers, and I can only speak to Florida here....is that they don't show what's going on.

If I have a class of 25 and 18 are still at the school, then you are factoring in 7 players who aren't even on the team. In addition, it doesn't account for people who clearly don't match their ranking.

Jeff Driskel was a 5 star recruit. At some point, he stops being a 5 star high school player and becomes/became a bad college quarterback.

So, if you look at Florida's recruiting some of the rankings look great. But, there are busts and transfers all over the place.

It's great that Thomas Holley and Gerald Willis were 5 star defensive tackles. One is no longer in school and the other may never see the field due to medical reasons.

There is more to analysis than numbers. You have to look beyond those numbers
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Not if one has a narrative he wishes to blindly promote. Happens all the time.
 
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#889
#889
KBVol said:
Not if one has a narrative he wishes to blindly promote. Happens all the time.
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Heh, KB, one guy is using facts and stats, the other guy is going with gut and emotion. I know which one of those is closer to "blind," and it's not the one with the numbers.
 
#890
#890
volunteerfan said:
Thank you so much lord readervol for responding for me, you must've known my fingers were sore. I tell you what buddy, I'm jumping on the CBJ bandwagon and I'm gonna let you steer us on to the promised land. I was so wrong for blaming CBJ for the four losses this year, anybody with a lick of sense knows that every loss we've had these last 3 years is that fool dooley's fault. I'm gonna sit on the bandwagon with my mouth wide open so I make sure I don't miss out on any of the bs that CBJ feeds me and the rest of vn. But what I didn't know that you kept a secret from the rest of vn is that CBJ bs taste like fruity pebbles. That was so selfish of you for not sharing those fruity pebbles.
Click to expand...

Look everybody, another KB disciple.
 
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#891
#891
99gator said:
I am not saying that Florida is without talent. But if you think the talent is close to where it was during the championship years of days gone by, you are mistaken...IMO.

As another poster said, much of the success is due to the fact that, let's face it, the division is pitiful. Downright awful.

Tennessee gave a game away. They surprised Ole Miss and the rest of the teams they have beaten are dog****
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Who said it was Urban Meyer hoodlum level? Muschamp recruited talent and Mac has coached it up... That should be enough cred for him...quit making it sound like he's doing this with FIU's roster.
 
#892
#892
BigOrangeTrain said:
Yep. JM,Freeze, Saban, Miles and Meyer all walked into the exact same situation Butch did. I totally forgot about that.
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None of them are identical. Sabans was discussed a few pages back. That was probably a push.
Freeze had a pretty popular thread awhile back with some info attached. Its hard to imagine given the previous records and recruiting at OM that Freeze had it better.

Mac, Miles, and Meyer walked into better situations.

Im not a fan of Saban or Meyer either one, but they haven't won titles at multiple schools on someone elses back.
 
#893
#893
butchna said:
Who said it was Urban Meyer hoodlum level? Muschamp recruited talent and Mac has coached it up... That should be enough cred for him...quit making it sound like he's doing this with FIU's roster.
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Actually he's more realistic than KB and his boys. They're the ones having a McGasm.
 
#894
#894
VFL-82-JP said:
Gator, your argument boils down to, "add more detail, and your model will be better." Yes. Almost always true. Never helpful to point out, though, unless you are willing to put in the extra work to add that extra granularity.

Every model of anything real world is an approximation. The better your resolution, the more precise the model can be. Not necessarily more accurate, but more precise.

Now that we all agree on that: I don't see anyone here with a better predictive model than DAJ's. Do you?

[far as I can tell, almost all the rest of us are thumb-gauging it with some combination of instinct and emotion]
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As far as I can tell, it's highly flawed in several places.

Stanford doesn't out recruit the Pac 10. Baylor and TCU don't pull the best talent in the Big 12.

You know what most of the highly ranked teams have in common....great coaches.

Briles, Shaw, Patterson, Meyer, D'Antonio, Kelly, Fisher, Saban, Miles, etc.

Some bring in top talent year after year. Some bring in talent that is not all that noteworthy to the folks at rivals.com.

In addition, how much difference is there between the 5th rated class and the 8th rated class
 
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#896
#896
99gator said:
As far as I can tell, it's highly flawed in several places.

Stanford doesn't out recruit the Pac 10. Baylor and TCU don't pull the best talent in the Big 12.

You know what most of the highly ranked teams have in common....great coaches.

Briles, Shaw, Patterson, Meyer, D'Antonio, Kelly, Fisher, Saban, Miles, etc.

Some bring in top talent year after year. Some bring in talent that is not all that noteworthy to the folks at rivals.com.

In addition, how much difference is there between the 5th rated class and the 8th rated class
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How closely have you looked at what DAJ does, Gator? It doesn't sound like you've spent much time getting to understand how he models it all.

Just one example: his model absolutely allows for good (and weak) coaches to shift things for their teams. It's a big part of his model, in fact.

I could be wrong, but I think you're criticizing him without taking time to understand him first.
 
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#898
#898
99gator said:
The problem with numbers, and I can only speak to Florida here....is that they don't show what's going on.

If I have a class of 25 and 18 are still at the school, then you are factoring in 7 players who aren't even on the team. In addition, it doesn't account for people who clearly don't match their ranking.

Jeff Driskel was a 5 star recruit. At some point, he stops being a 5 star high school player and becomes/became a bad college quarterback.

So, if you look at Florida's recruiting some of the rankings look great. But, there are busts and transfers all over the place.

It's great that Thomas Holley and Gerald Willis were 5 star defensive tackles. One is no longer in school and the other may never see the field due to medical reasons.

There is more to analysis than numbers. You have to look beyond those numbers
Click to expand...


There is absolutely nothing unique about those data. Long-term success and stability at the head coaching position will suppress attrition somewhat, but approximately 40% of the signees in a given recruiting class will fail to complete their eligibility at the university with whom they first signed. Whether it be due to early entry to the NFL draft, academic washout, transfer, suspension/dismissal, etc., 40% is a reliable projection.

LWSVol has accumulated a wealth of data on this topic (see http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/247610-attrition.html?highlight=Attrition), a sample of which I present for your consideration:

Tennessee

2015 Signed 30 - 03 (10%)
2014 Signed 32 - 08 (25%)
2013 Signed 23 - 09 (39%)
2012 Signed 22 - 11 (50%)
2011 Signed 28 - 14 (50%)
2010 Signed 28 - 11 (39%)
2009 Signed 24 - 19 (79%)
2008 Signed 18 - 06 (33%)
2007 Signed 32 - 19 (59%)
2006 Signed 22 - 12 (55%)
2005 Signed 27 - 11 (41%)
2004 Signed 24 - 07 (29%)
2003 Signed 22 - 08 (36%)
2002 Signed 25 - 09 (36%)

Last 5 Years Signed 135 - 45 (33%)

Totals Signed 357 – 147 (41%)

Florida

2015 Signed 21 - 02 (10%) Rank # 23
2014 Signed 24 - 04 (17%) Rank # 08
2013 Signed 29 - 08 (28%) Rank # 04 NFL 1
2012 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 03 NFL 3
2011 Signed 19 - 10 (53%) Rank # 12
2010 Signed 28 - 14 (50%) Rank # 02 NFL 10
2009 Signed 17 - 07 (41%) Rank # 11 NFL 7
2008 Signed 22 - 09 (41%) Rank # 03 NFL 2
2007 Signed 27 - 09 (33%) Rank # 01 NFL 10
2006 Signed 27 - 10 (37%) Rank # 02 NFL 7
2005 Signed 18 - 11 (61%) Rank # 15 NFL 2
2004 Signed 23 - 09 (39%) Rank # 07 NFL 4
2003 Signed 26 - 07 (27%) Rank # 02 NFL 8
2002 Signed 22 - 08 (36%) Rank # 20 NFL 5

Last 5 Years Signed 116 - 33 (28%)

Totals Signed 326 – 116 (36%)


Predictably, the Fulmer-Kiffin-Dooley turnstile produced massive attrition. If you look at the SEC as a whole for this fourteen-year period, 1,912 (39%) of the 4,856 total signees were casualties of attrition.
 
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#900
#900
VFL-82-JP said:
Heh, KB, one guy is using facts and stats, the other guy is going with gut and emotion. I know which one of those is closer to "blind," and it's not the one with the numbers.
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99 isn't using gut and emotion JP...he's giving concrete real-world examples why the talent evaluation isn't valid.

It's like Kiffin's 2009 class...he signed 23 players in that class and Rivals ranked it the #10 class in the country. By the time the end of the 2011 season rolled around, only 8 players remained. At that point, Rivals re-evaluated the class and called it the most disappointing class nationally in the past decade. Huge difference between a class of 23 and a #10 ranking....and that same class only 2 years later that, upon further review, was considered the most disappointing class since virtually the turn of the millennium.
 
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