Bleacher Report's lead NFL Draft analyst on Josh Dobbs

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

D4H and Ktown can argue all they want, but, at this point Dobbs = Brandon Allen, no more, no less. As a matter of fact, Allen was by far the higher rated of the two coming in to college. To even suggest he is on Watson's level is asinine, and, frankly childish at this point.

If Dobbs blows up and has a monster season, I will be more than happy to come in here and eat crow. If he has another year comparable to what he had last year will all the others be willing to do the same?

Completely FALSE on both points.

1. Dobbs was a composite 4-star coming in while Allen was a composite 3-star.

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee, Dual-Threat Quarterback
Brandon Allen, Jacksonville, Pro-Style Quarterback

2. Dobbs first 3 years were also better than Allen's first 3 years (even without the benefit of a redshirt year).

Joshua Dobbs Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
Brandon Allen Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

 

[KBVol]

D4H and Ktown can argue all they want, but, at this point Dobbs = Brandon Allen, no more, no less. As a matter of fact, Allen was by far the higher rated of the two coming in to college. To even suggest he is on Watson's level is asinine, and, frankly childish at this point.

If Dobbs blows up and has a monster season, I will be more than happy to come in here and eat crow. If he has another year comparable to what he had last year will all the others be willing to do the same?

I think Josh is an outstanding playmaking SEC QB. But he hasn't had a season throwing the ball anywhere near where Allen had last year. He was outstanding in 2015. As a matter of fact, look at Allen's last 2 seasons.....he threw 50 tds vs only 13 interceptions and over 5,700 yards, so I certainly wouldn't put Josh on Allen's level as a passer, certainly not yet....he's gotta have a huge senior year to get there. And, as good as Josh is, he's just not in Watson's league unless he steps up big time this year and proves it.

 

[KBVol]

Completely FALSE on both points.

1. Dobbs was a composite 4-star coming in while Allen was a composite 3-star.

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee, Dual-Threat Quarterback
Brandon Allen, Jacksonville, Pro-Style Quarterback

2. Dobbs first 3 years were also better than Allen's first 3 years (even without the benefit of a redshirt year).

Joshua Dobbs Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
Brandon Allen Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Point #2.....are you actually relying on stats there to try and prove your point? Lol.

 

[Nasavol]

Sorry guys, had to go back and edit my post. Brandon Harris, not Allen. My apologies...

 

[Nasavol]

In B4 D4H's rhetoric:

Harris 37th on ESPN's 300
Dobbs 177th

RK PLAYER TEAM COMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK RAT
1 Chad Kelly, QB MISS 298 458 65.1 4042 8.8 73 31 13 18 155.9
2 Dak Prescott, QB MSST 316 477 66.2 3793 8.0 63 29 5 32 151.0
3 Brandon Allen, QB ARK 244 370 65.9 3440 9.3 71 30 8 14 166.5
4 Jake Coker, QB ALA 263 393 66.9 3110 7.9 81 21 8 25 147.0
5 Joshua Dobbs, QB TENN 205 344 59.6 2291 6.7 75 15 5 21 127.0
6 Kyle Allen, QB HOU 160 283 56.5 2210 7.8 95 17 7 23 137.0
7 Brandon Harris, QB LSU 149 277 53.8 2165 7.8 67 13 6 17 130.6

 

[KBVol]

Sorry guys, had to go back and edit my post. Brandon Harris, not Allen. My apologies...

Ahh, gotcha. Much better comparison, but I'd definitely take Josh.

 

[Nasavol]

Ahh, gotcha. Much better comparison, but I'd definitely take Josh.

Me also, but, can't deny that they are close and no one outside of LA is talking about Harris. In my opinion if Harris can pull it together, LSU is the team to watch in the West.

 

[KBVol]

Me also, but, can't deny that they are close and no one outside of LA is talking about Harris. In my opinion if Harris can pull it together, LSU is the team to watch in the West.

Agree.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

I think Josh is an outstanding playmaking SEC QB. But he hasn't had a season throwing the ball anywhere near where Allen had last year. He was outstanding in 2015. As a matter of fact, look at Allen's last 2 seasons.....he threw 50 tds vs only 13 interceptions and over 5,700 yards, so I certainly wouldn't put Josh on Allen's level as a passer, certainly not yet....he's gotta have a huge senior year to get there. And, as good as Josh is, he's just not in Watson's league unless he steps up big time this year and proves it.

To be fair though, you can't really compare Allen's past two seasons to Dobbs'. Allen's Jr. Season is basically the same as Dobbs'. He just threw 5 more TDs and completed about 3% less of his passes. Granted, Allen had a much better OL protecting him as well.

Allen is the guy you can point to and say there is a precedent that guys who have a lot of experience against SEC opponents can have the light come on and step up as seniors. So it's unfair to bring his senior season, which was a statistical outlier for him, into the comparison.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

To be fair though, you can't really compare Allen's past two seasons to Dobbs'. Allen's Jr. Season is basically the same as Dobbs'. He just threw 5 more TDs and completed about 3% less of his passes. Granted, Allen had a much better OL protecting him as well.

Allen is the guy you can point to and say there is a precedent that guys who have a lot of experience against SEC opponents can have the light come on and step up as seniors. So it's unfair to bring his senior season, which was a statistical outlier for him, into the comparison.

Not to mention Dobbs caught/ran for 11 more TDs.

 

[KBVol]

To be fair though, you can't really compare Allen's past two seasons to Dobbs'. Allen's Jr. Season is basically the same as Dobbs'. He just threw 5 more TDs and completed about 3% less of his passes. Granted, Allen had a much better OL protecting him as well.

Allen is the guy you can point to and say there is a precedent that guys who have a lot of experience against SEC opponents can have the light come on and step up as seniors. So it's unfair to bring his senior season, which was a statistical outlier for him, into the comparison.

Fair enough. Let's see if Dobbs can have a similar "outlier season" this year. Where would you put your money....especially if his top 3 WRs and best RB go down to injury for the season, like Allen's did last year before the first game even rolls around.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

Fair enough. Let's see if Dobbs can have a similar "outlier season" this year. Where would you put your money....especially if his top 3 WRs and best RB go down to injury for the season, like Allen's did last year before the first game even rolls around.

Well since Allen's most dangerous receiving threat was a TE anyway and Arky had one of the best OLs in football, it's not a perfect comparison. But I'd say I do expect Dobbs to take an Allen-like step forward as a senior. I imagine things will finally have slowed down for him and experience will be a huge intangible factor for him. Maybe his passing stats won't be quite on par with Allen's, since Dobbs also gets it done on the ground.

I'd put my money on Dobbs finally having a 3,000 yard passing season, his completion percentage climbing into the 60s (though honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see it hover around 59), and his YPC to take a leap forward (how much will probably be determined by how well the WRs help out Dobbs).

By the time Dobbs graduates, I think Dobbs will definitely be seen as the more productive of the two QBs. I'm not sure that necessarily means he'll be seen as the better passer, though.

 

[KBVol]

Well since Allen's most dangerous receiving threat was a TE anyway and Arky had one of the best OLs in football, it's not a perfect comparison. But I'd say I do expect Dobbs to take an Allen-like step forward as a senior. I imagine things will finally have slowed down for him and experience will be a huge intangible factor for him. Maybe his passing stats won't be quite on par with Allen's, since Dobbs also gets it done on the ground.

I'd put my money on Dobbs finally having a 3,000 yard passing season, his completion percentage climbing into the 60s (though honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see it hover around 59), and his YPC to take a leap forward (how much will probably be determined by how well the WRs help out Dobbs).

By the time Dobbs graduates, I think Dobbs will definitely be seen as the more productive of the two QBs. I'm not sure that necessarily means he'll be seen as the better passer, though.

1. TE Hunter Henry was not Allen's most dangerous receiving threat (51 catches, 739 yds, 3 tds), it was 6'0, 194 lb, former 247 2-star WR Drew Morgan (63 catches, 843 yds, 10 tds)

2. I hope Josh takes a huge step forward in lock step with his receivers and the OL. He's gonna have to take a tremendous leap to go from 2300 yds to 3440....from 6.7 yds per attempt to 9.3.....from 15 TD passes to 30..... and especially so if he doesn't have Malone, Smith and PWill or JJ on the outside and Jalen in the backfield with him and has only, at best, his 4th best WR, an outstanding TE like Wolf and just Kamara and Kelly to hand the ball off to.

Fact is, Allen was outstanding and worked miracles with what he had to work with last year. I'm not sure how many other qbs could do what he did and sure hope we never have to find out whether or not Dobbs could.

Josh is an outstanding playmaking sec QB in his own right and makes up for some throwing issues with his outstanding running abilities. I just personally doubt he can get to the passing levels that Allen did last year....fortunately for us, he doesn't have to for us to have an outstanding season.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

1. TE Hunter Henry was not Allen's most dangerous receiving threat (51 catches, 739 yds, 3 tds), it was 6'0, 194 lb, former 247 2-star WR Drew Morgan (63 catches, 843 yds, 10 tds)

2. I hope Josh takes a huge step forward in lock step with his receivers and the OL. He's gonna have to take a tremendous leap to go from 2300 yds to 3440....from 6.7 yds per attempt to 9.3.....from 15 TD passes to 30..... and especially so if he doesn't have Malone, Smith and PWill or JJ on the outside and Jalen in the backfield with him and has only, at best, his 4th best WR, an outstanding TE like Wolf and just Kamara and Kelly to hand the ball off to.

Fact is, Allen was outstanding and worked miracles with what he had to work with last year. I'm not sure how many other qbs could do what he did and sure hope we never have to find out whether or not Dobbs could.

Josh is an outstanding playmaking sec QB in his own right and makes up for some throwing issues with his outstanding running abilities. I just personally doubt he can get to the passing levels that Allen did last year....fortunately for us, he doesn't have to for us to have an outstanding season.

1. Most dangerous and most productive aren't exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you DCs spent a lot more time worrying about Henry than Morgan and that contributed to his stats being what they were.

2. Yeah, Dobbs does have a long way to go. But so did Allen going into his senior year. I think Dobbs will have a lot more going for him this season than he did last season, so I see him making a similar jump. Not saying his passing stats will eclipse Allen's 2015 stats. Just that I think there will be a similar spike in productivity. Gaining an extra 1000 yards passing on the season could basically come down to averaging 2 more explosive pass plays per game than 2015. I think that's within the realm of reason.

I could very well be overrating the experience factor, though.

 

[armchair]

Dobbs hasn't been helped by our relatively weak offensive line and receiver corp the last year or two. Too many injured WRs, a WR rotation that is too big, and kind of disjointed passing game under our coaches, who also prefer to run the ball. Dobbs needs to show he can pass the ball effectively and consistently this year--no one more good throw and then the next pass is six yards over the head of a TE 15 yards down the field. He's steadily improved and his improvement will no doubt continue this year--especially if the coaches settle on at most five wideouts and let them play consistently so our passing game can develop some cohesion.

 

[KBVol]

1. Most dangerous and most productive aren't exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you DCs spent a lot more time worrying about Henry than Morgan and that contributed to his stats being what they were.

2. Yeah, Dobbs does have a long way to go. But so did Allen going into his senior year. I think Dobbs will have a lot more going for him this season than he did last season, so I see him making a similar jump. Not saying his passing stats will eclipse Allen's 2015 stats. Just that I think there will be a similar spike in productivity. Gaining an extra 1000 yards passing on the season could basically come down to averaging 2 more explosive pass plays per game than 2015. I think that's within the realm of reason.

I could very well be overrating the experience factor, though.

1. I'll stick with the idea that they guy who had more catches, more yards and 3+ times more Tds was the more dangerous receiver. No doubt that Henry had to game-planned and schemed for, he was outstanding. But at the end of the day, Morgan was more "dangerous" to the opposing teams and their ability to beat Arky.

2. I agree that Dobbs could have a spike, could see a decent jump in his passing numbers.....just doubt he sees the monumental increases that Allen did. That's not really a knock on Josh, it's more defining just how good Allen was last year.....especially given all the top players/teammates he lost to injury.

Bottom line, I too believe Josh proves to be better and more productive this year. Just personally can't see him reaching Allen's numbers. Will be thrilled if he does.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

1. I'll stick with the idea that they guy who had more catches, more yards and 3+ times more Tds was the more dangerous receiver. No doubt that Henry had to game-planned and schemed for, he was outstanding. But at the end of the day, Morgan was more "dangerous" to the opposing teams and their ability to beat Arky.

2. I agree that Dobbs could have a spike, could see a decent jump in his passing numbers.....just doubt he sees the monumental increases that Allen did. That's not really a knock on Josh, it's more defining just how good Allen was last year.....especially given all the top players/teammates he lost to injury.

Bottom line, I too believe Josh proves to be better and more productive this year. Just personally can't see him reaching Allen's numbers. Will be thrilled if he does.

1. Agree to disagree. Having to worry about Henry made Morgan's year possible. I think a defense could take Morgan out of a game more easily than Henry, if they schemed for it.

2. Totally get that. I'm not sure Dobbs' passing numbers will match Allen's either. He'll be a key component in the running game, I don't see our OL giving him the time Arky's gave Allen, and I imagine we'll have more games where we will let off the gas than Arky had in 2015. There are a lot of factors that seem to indicate Dobbs won't match Allen's passing stats.

But I do expect to see a spike nonetheless that people can point to, in conjunction with Allen's senior year, and as an example of experienced upperclassmen taking big steps forward.

 

[AshG]

I couldn't imagine him not wanting to. If he gets that opportunity he could always put his degree to work after hisfootball career is done. Not a bad fall back option for Josh. Too many football players have nothing to fall back on once football is done and then are broke a year or two after their career is over. Just a matter of him making good money with his degree or making great money in the NFL.

A couple bad hits to the head and that degree is useless. His brain may be worth more to the human race than his body will be to our entertainment.

 

[butchna]

A couple bad hits to the head and that degree is useless. His brain may be worth more to the human race than his body will be to our entertainment.

 

[MFL]

I think he is Steve Mcnair in running but the air part must be earned this year or his draft stock will be non existent