I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But I would say it's those touting Pruitt who are basing their decision on projection and hope. My pick is based entirely on past results.
UCF was 0-12 when Frost was hired to be their head coach. At the end of his second season they were undefeated and beat a Top 10-ranked Auburn team in their bowl game. UCF!
Like Tennessee, Nebraska was 4-8 in 2017. Like Tennessee, they got worse as the season went on -- and were truly awful the last half of the season. Frost started a true freshman QB in his first season as Nebraska's head coach. It was a controversial call that seemed even more questionable when Martinez was injured in Nebraska's first game, missed the second game and played shakily in the early part of the season. But Frost stuck with him and he improved as the season went on. And so did Nebraska. After an 0-6 start, they won 4 out of their last 6 games.
Five of their losses were by less than a TD margin. They nearly upset Northwestern and Ohio State, both games on the road. Husker fans' expectations for 2019 are sky-high, while most of our fans are still taking a wait-and-see approach.