I'm not sure about that. Bama is losing kids that can't get on the field for them. Opens up room for 'ships and the portal. Bama then goes out and cherry picks the best of the portal. Seems like the portal is a real plus for the bama/ugas of the world.
The math is pretty clear.
Say you're a Bama, Georgia, or A&M. In a typical year, you recruit 5 five-stars and 15 four-stars. And assume all these lads are so good they're only going to play three years, then declare for the draft (it gets even more crowded in the locker room if they stay four).
So after a few years of this, you have at least 15 five-stars and 45 four-stars on the roster (any one or two others you might get from "cherry picking the portal" is just more crowding on top of an already over-crowded roster).
That totals at least 60 players (who could start at any program in the US) on your roster. But, not counting special teams,
you can only start 22 of them.
That leaves 38 four- and five-star players who were superstars in high school, and now aren't even starting. Half of them aren't even getting any significant playing time.
No playing time as a four- or five-star super stud, that is going to rub the wrong way.
Used to be, they were kinda stuck there. Part of the huge benefit to such strong recruiting for a team like Bama was not only that you get to play some of them, but that
the teams you compete with DON'T get any of them.
But that's not true any more. Now it's much easier to (a) move schools and (b) play immediately.
So it is not surprising, in retrospect, that 5-10 players from Bama and another 5-10 from Georgia are looking for a new home. What's surprising is that there aren't MORE. Up to 20 a year from each program would make sense. Go to Bama...compete for starting job...find out the coach favored the other guy...experience the playoffs, maybe win a championship...then switch to Choice B school and start for the next 2 or 3 years.
Sure, it may not hurt Bama or Georgia to lose these lads (except in reduced options among the back-ups). They didn't win the starting jobs. But "not quite good enough to beat out the other five-star" can still be "hella better than anything we've got" on the other 127 or so teams in division I.
So don't misunderstand: while it is an acceptable loss for Bama or UGa, it is a mother lode of potential improvement for everyone else. Even if Bama or UGa get first dibs, it is still spreading out the talent, over time, more than used to happen.
p.s. Honestly makes me wonder whether the more savvy coaching staffs of the other 127 programs out there will start saving a handful of spots beyond early signing day, just waiting to see whether any of the talent bleeding off the top three or four programs fits a need. LWS points out we are full, have no open spots right now. Perhaps in future years CJH and crew will save a spot or two....