Are there really 51 Power 5 coaches better than Butch?

#501
#501
VolGee4 said:
I think I have answered it. But looking at history, a win against Alabama the last two years by itself wouldn't have won the East. Now, would our team's psyche have changed last year going into a bye week after beating Alabama? I don't know.

But it's really not the point. The point is that playing Alabama every year is a competitive disadvantage. I brought Missouri in play because if they had Alabama as a permanent west team, it would have clearly changed the winner of the East. Therefore, there is evidence that it can influence standings.

Have I ever said that playing Alabama every year is the sole reason for not winning the East? Nope. But it goes into the pot as a factor. It's simply a hurdle that other teams don't have to jump right now.

Since Butch has been here (4 seasons), we have played two of the top 4 teams in the West every single year...and two of the top 3 in three of the years. In that same time, UF and UGA combined have done it twice (both UF). The one constant- Alabama.
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forget winning. just not playing them as has been suggested.
 
#502
#502
VolGee4 said:
I can't help you not getting it. UF and UGA have two shots at a split of the west teams. Based on probability, UT does not have the same odds. UT HAS to beat the second west opponent for a split because the overwhelming odds say that UT will not beat Alabama. So, UT's chances ride on one game, as the odds are better that UF or UGA could beat LSU or Auburn. Again, I am not a math guy, but it's based on probability.

I understand your point that we could always lose to Alabama every single year and still win the East as long as we sweep our division. That point is not lost on me. However, that is not logical. We will not go 7-1 every year just like UF and UGA won't either.

Whether you are emotionally attached to this argument or not, the fact is that since 2007, UT has been at a competitive disadvantage by playing Alabama every year.
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Yet, Tennessee NEVER beats the second west opponent either.
 
#504
#504
jakez4ut said:
forget winning. just not playing them as has been suggested.
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I am not sure there is a difference. By not playing Alabama, you have a greater chance of winning that game. If you randomly selected another West team the last 4 years instead of Alabama, the chances of winning go way up. Now do we actually win them? No one can predict things like that.
 
#505
#505
VolGee4 said:
Still doesn't change the probability. The probability would change if Alabama wasn't one of the two teams.
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You aren't suggesting that we stop playing bama every year?

If we don't play them, how can we beat them. I got used to beating them back in the 90s. Kind of took it for granted. This is the year we put things back in order.


Go Vols!
 
#506
#506
Iam4utalways said:
You aren't suggesting that we stop playing bama every year?

If we don't play them, how can we beat them. I got used to beating them back in the 90s. Kind of took it for granted. This is the year we put things back in order.


Go Vols!
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Nope. Never said that. I am a traditionalist and would hate to see the game go. But there is no way around it right now that it is a hurdle to overcome in order to win the East.
 
#507
#507
Saban will eventually retire and Bama will eventually become human again.

I personally don't like the tradition in light of the game as it is today. But things will eventually change.
 
#508
#508
VolGee4 said:
Nope. Never said that. I am a traditionalist and would hate to see the game go. But there is no way around it right now that it is a hurdle to overcome in order to win the East.
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Just making sure.

Bama is just another SEC game that we need to win to have the kind of year we all want.

I'd trade Ky and Mizzu for Auburn and LSU.
 
#509
#509
KBVol said:
Yet, Tennessee NEVER beats the second west opponent either.
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NEVER lasts a long time, KB.

Let's instead say we haven't done it in the past six years, and rarely in the past ten.

Before that, before the Dark Ages began, we beat two (or even all three) of our annual West opponents fairly regularly.
 
#510
#510
VolGee4 said:
I am not sure there is a difference. By not playing Alabama, you have a greater chance of winning that game. If you randomly selected another West team the last 4 years instead of Alabama, the chances of winning go way up. Now do we actually win them? No one can predict things like that.
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no, they can't. all i can say is we've not beaten anyone form the west. it might 'feel' better to put Auburn or aTm or LSU in the probable loss, vs. sure loss category. but that's about it.

since 2008, we've beaten Ole miss 1x, and MSU 1x. and we've lost to both of those teams since then.

that's it. and both of those wins were when we still played 3 West opponents vs. the 2 we now play.

2008-2011 2-10 against the West. 2012-present 0 fer 10....2-20 in the last 9 years.

i'm not sure removing Bama would make that much of a difference.

but look, i'm not naive, i do get it.

i'm just not one that buys in to the notion that removing Bama from the schedule solves our problems, in part or in whole, regardless of the perceived disadvantage.

1-11 against FL, 2-6 against GA...those records have to get better over time. and start splitting the West schedule....sometimes.
 
#513
#513
VFL-82-JP said:
NEVER lasts a long time, KB.

Let's instead say we haven't done it in the past six years, and rarely in the past ten.

Before that, before the Dark Ages began, we beat two (or even all three) of our annual West opponents fairly regularly.
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Around the same length of time that UF and UGA catch Bama in the regular season.
 
#514
#514
VolGee4 said:
Nope. Never said that. I am a traditionalist and would hate to see the game go. But there is no way around it right now that it is a hurdle to overcome in order to win the East.
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The east was well in reach this year after dropping the Bama game which was preceded by the L in College Station.

Tripped over 2 hurdles after that. If you can call them that.
 
#516
#516
BeecherVol said:
The east was well in reach this year after dropping the Bama game which was preceded by the L in College Station.

Tripped over 2 hurdles after that. If you can call them that.
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This is the thing. In general, if there was one thing I said was the most important to Tennessee winning the division, I would say it was beating Florida and Georgia.

They did it in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2016. So, that was 4 years where they controlled their destiny. Every other season included scoreboard watching.

Florida has beaten Tennessee and Georgia in the same season in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015. 14 times they controlled their destiny. 10 times they won the division. 2 times the division was won by another team in the East that they did lose to who was not Georgia or Tennessee (2010-SC, 2014-Mizzou). That's only 14% of the time that they beat Tennessee and Georgia and Tennessee or Georgia still won the division (2002 and 2005)

Georgia has beaten Florida and Tennessee in the same season in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Georgia won the division in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, neither Florida or Tennessee won the division either. So, every time Georgia has beaten both, neither Florida or Tennessee later won the division.

The statistical outlier is Tennessee in 1992 finding a way to lose at home to 3-7-1 Arkansas and on the road to 5-6 South Carolina. Then, in 2016, Tennessee lost to 6-7 South Carolina and 6-7 Vanderbilt.

So, basically, if you beat the 2 main rivals in the division, there has to be a team out of South Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky, or Mizzou that is better than all 3 of us (how often is that going to happen) or you have to go to great lengths to screw it up.
 
#518
#518
99gator said:
This is the thing. In general, if there was one thing I said was the most important to Tennessee winning the division, I would say it was beating Florida and Georgia.

They did it in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2016. So, that was 4 years where they controlled their destiny. Every other season included scoreboard watching.

Florida has beaten Tennessee and Georgia in the same season in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015. 14 times they controlled their destiny. 10 times they won the division. 2 times the division was won by another team in the East that they did lose to who was not Georgia or Tennessee (2010-SC, 2014-Mizzou). That's only 14% of the time that they beat Tennessee and Georgia and Tennessee or Georgia still won the division (2002 and 2005)

Georgia has beaten Florida and Tennessee in the same season in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Georgia won the division in 2011 and 2012. In 2013, neither Florida or Tennessee won the division either. So, every time Georgia has beaten both, neither Florida or Tennessee later won the division.

The statistical outlier is Tennessee in 1992 finding a way to lose at home to 3-7-1 Arkansas and on the road to 5-6 South Carolina. Then, in 2016, Tennessee lost to 6-7 South Carolina and 6-7 Vanderbilt.

So, basically, if you beat the 2 main rivals in the division, there has to be a team out of South Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky, or Mizzou that is better than all 3 of us (how often is that going to happen) or you have to go to great lengths to screw it up.
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It's what we do.
 
#519
#519
Butch is better than CBS is giving him credit for. CBS didn't even set a criteria for their rankings. If nothing else look at the team rank at the end of the seasons. Butch in general has us as a top 25 team so you must give him credit for being a top 25 coach.
I feel good about the new staff. Barring a rash of injuries at thin positions I expect a good year followed by a top ten recruiting class.
 
#520
#520
BeecherVol said:
Not really.

Bama is not costing UT the division.
UT is.
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At no point have I said Bama is costing UT the division Ethel, quit whining and realize UT has a much tougher road than UF or UGA. If you can't see that then I don't know what to tell you. Simply because you believe UT should be able to beat Alabama, UGA, and UF on a regular basis doesn't somehow magically make it true. Every team in the West plays Alabama so it evens out, I am not sure why you cannot grasp that.
 
#521
#521
landscapingvol said:
At no point have I said Bama is costing UT the division Ethel, quit whining and realize UT has a much tougher road than UF or UGA. If you can't see that then I don't know what to tell you. Simply because you believe UT should be able to beat Alabama, UGA, and UF on a regular basis doesn't somehow magically make it true. Every team in the West plays Alabama so it evens out, I am not sure why you cannot grasp that.
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and no one has said that either. while we're putting words in everyone's mouths, can someone explain to me how not playing Alabama would have improved our position in winning the East the last two years? and explain to me how FL losing Ark or GA losing to Ole Miss is valued less than TN losing to Bama?
 
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#522
#522
jakez4ut said:
and no one has said that either. while we're putting words in everyone's mouths, can someone explain to me how not playing Alabama would have improved our position in winning the East the last two years? and explain to me how FL losing Ark or GA losing to Ole Miss is valued less than TN losing to Bama?
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Do you really believe the physicality of playing Alabama on regular basis has no bearing on the rest of the season?? If you can't see the difference in playing Arkansas or Ole Miss, I don't know what to tell you. The chances of beating any other team in the West is much greater. The chances of beating Alabama are nearly zero for virtually every team in the SEC. Of course a loss is a loss, but I would much rather play a team we actually have a chance against. Maybe some fans live in a nostalgic World where playing Alabama makes them feel warm and fuzzy? I would much rather not have an automatic loss on the schedule every single year. It's like the goofballs who argue for playing tough out of conference games every year. It makes no sense.
 
#523
#523
landscapingvol said:
Do you really believe the physicality of playing Alabama on regular basis has no bearing on the rest of the season?? If you can't see the difference in playing Arkansas or Ole Miss, I don't know what to tell you. The chances of beating any other team in the West is much greater. The chances of beating Alabama are nearly zero for virtually every team in the SEC. Of course a loss is a loss, but I would much rather play a team we actually have a chance against. Maybe some fans live in a nostalgic World where playing Alabama makes them feel warm and fuzzy? I would much rather not have an automatic loss on the schedule every single year. It's like the goofballs who argue for playing tough out of conference games every year. It makes no sense.
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wonder how we won out after playing big bad Alabama in 2015. by your logic, we should have lost 2-3 down the stretch. can't happen, huh?

and we lost to Ole miss and Arkansas too, still found ways to win games after those losses as well.

still waiting for answers....that actually make sense.

on that 2nd point, we're back to "can't beat'em, quit". and here's another one...we havne't beaten anyone from the West in long time, and only 2 in the last 9 years. so i'm not sure that argument holds water either.
 
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#524
#524
Well when you play Alabama and LSU out of the West a majority of the time a poor record tends to happen regardless of the coach. Glad you pointed out 2015, what about the other 10 years since we beat them? Name another SEC school that routinely beats either of those teams. My point in all of this is you can't simply blame CBJ for not making it to Atlanta based on coaching alone. The schedule has a lot to do with who makes it and who does not. UF and UGA have had the benefit of much more favorable SEC schedules.
 
#525
#525
landscapingvol said:
Well when you play Alabama and LSU out of the West a majority of the time a poor record tends to happen regardless of the coach. Glad you pointed out 2015, what about the other 10 years since we beat them? Name another SEC school that routinely beats either of those teams. My point in all of this is you can't simply blame CBJ for not making it to Atlanta based on coaching alone. The schedule has a lot to do with who makes it and who does not. UF and UGA have had the benefit of much more favorable SEC schedules.
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no, apparently it's the schedule's fault.

and i'm still waiting for answers. not excuses.
 
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