Anyone else happy and hopeful?

#26
#26
Son, its baseball season, and we got work to do!

I'm not concerned about that crap till August....

Now, get your mind right! Ya hear?
 
#33
#33
OrangeBeachVol said:
Where is your spirit Clarence???
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I’m eternally optimistic. I don’t get why some folks on here will slam you for having unrealistic expectations. Who gives a sh*t? It’s a football fan message board. And anything can happen. Was it a realistic expectation to think that an 85-1 horse could win the derby? Nope. But it happened. Same goes for football.
 
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#34
#34
TJSVOLS said:
Just trying to make a point, but yes it is possible but not probable.
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Just for giggles, I pretended to be able to read the minds of the statisticians at ESPN, and came up with my own way-too-early version of the FPI.

FPI isn't yet giving game-by-game chances to win. So here's what I made up on their behalf. You can argue each of these if you wish, but that's not the point of this post. Just trying to get an order of magnitude estimate for us winning (or losing) all twelve games.

If the Vols' chances to win are:
  • Ball State - 99%
  • Pittsburgh - 48%
  • Akron - 99%
  • Florida - 45%
  • LSU - 40%
  • Bama - 20%
  • UT Martin - 99%
  • Kentucky - 65%
  • UGa - 25%
  • Mizzou - 75%
  • USCe - 70%
  • Vandy - 98%

Then our likelihood to win all twelve is .0014. That's 0.14%. About one-tenth of one percent.

Our likelihood to lose all twelve is so much lower: .00000000005, or 0.000000005%.

In other words, neither extreme is probable. Or likely. Or even possible. Not in any realistic sense.

You've made your point, man, but I don't agree with it. We can absolutely narrow our future down a lot better than "0 to 12."

Go Vols!
 
#37
#37
VFL-82-JP said:
Just for giggles, I pretended to be able to read the minds of the statisticians at ESPN, and came up with my own way-too-early version of the FPI.

FPI isn't yet giving game-by-game chances to win. So here's what I made up on their behalf. You can argue each of these if you wish, but that's not the point of this post. Just trying to get an order of magnitude estimate for us winning (or losing) all twelve games.

If the Vols' chances to win are:
  • Ball State - 99%
  • Pittsburgh - 48%
  • Akron - 99%
  • Florida - 45%
  • LSU - 40%
  • Bama - 20%
  • UT Martin - 99%
  • Kentucky - 65%
  • UGa - 25%
  • Mizzou - 75%
  • USCe - 70%
  • Vandy - 98%

Then our likelihood to win all twelve is .0014. That's 0.14%. About one-tenth of one percent.

Our likelihood to lose all twelve is so much lower: .00000000005, or 0.000000005%.

In other words, neither extreme is probable. Or likely. Or even possible. Not in any realistic sense.

You've made your point, man, but I don't agree with it. We can absolutely narrow our future down a lot better than "0 to 12."

Go Vols!
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I believe that our season will be defined by that 3 game stretch of Florida, LSU, and Bama. If we can get at least one of those, we have the chance to have a pretty good season. If for some reason we were able to take 2/3, we could have a great season! If we go 0-3 in that stretch, well then we most likely will have an expected season that hovers between 8-4 and 7-5.
 
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#38
#38
clarencepeabody said:
I’m eternally optimistic. I don’t get why some folks on here will slam you for having unrealistic expectations. Who gives a sh*t? It’s a football fan message board. And anything can happen. Was it a realistic expectation to think that an 85-1 horse could win the derby? Nope. But it happened. Same goes for football.
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That was exactly the point of my original post. Enthusiasm, guarded optimism or gloom and doom is all on the table in the summer. And I agree who gives a #$$% either way.
 
#39
#39
My orange kool aid definitely seems to be turning into amber wine.

edit: But I'm not going to take my first sip until September.
 
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#41
#41
orangebloodgmc said:
Your claim: "We brought back virtuaiiy no one to a secondary that struggled ... "

Sure, there's room for improvement from the NUMEROUS secondary guys that played that we brought back, as aside from the picked-on Burrell, there's Hadden, Turnage, Flowers, McCullogh, Slaughter, and McDonald. There's Charles and Rucker, who were true freshmen, but no longer. Then there are the incoming guys that are new to us but are veterans: D.Williams, Walker, and Turrentine. We have no idea what all this secondary might do.
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Fair points. Noone that has done much of anything yet. I certainly did not mean to insult our players. My bad.
 
#42
#42
Am I happy with our team? Absolutely. Hopeful? Depends on the situation. Hopeful that we improve on last year and continue to show improvement? Yes. Hopeful that we stand a chance against Bama? Not in the slightest.
 
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#46
#46
Rocky Top T said:
With that defense,. 8 wins would be a great season!
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yeah were horrible on 3rd down defense and that has to be fixed. I do think a more consistent offense would make the defense tremendously better. The defense showed they can get stops early. The problem comes when we go 3 & out in under a minute for 4-5 straight drives in the middle of the game. You can't find an SEC defense that wouldn't break if u keep throwing them on the field for 85-90 plays every game. I know we can't score every single drive but we do need to cut those 3 & outs in half. I'm not saying slow down at all I'm saying we need to execute better.
 
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#47
#47
Berry4Heisman14 said:
We don’t have the defense to win 10 imo I say 7-8 wins
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I can't say that bc I thought we should've won 10 games with that defense last year. Pitt, OM, & Purdue should've been wins even with our defense. Before the season people thought we had a 4-6 win team at best. There are 8 games on this years schedule, where we will be the more talented team. Then you got Bama, UGA, UF, LSU & a bowl game. We can get to 10 wins by handling our business in the games we're favored and going 2-3 in the 5 big games.
 
#48
#48
We now have more experience in our defense and it will show itself to our satisfaction.

On offense? Fireworks, fireworks, fireworks.

Let's get this season started. Get your season tickets now. It's gonna be fun.
 
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