"American alliance is worth nothing..."

#126
#126
Rasputin_Vol said:
Hey Grand, after this week's developments, what is Germany to do?

Should they choose between a dysfunctional and outdated military alliance in the West or should the lean towards satisfying their energy and trade dealings with the East?
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I like your loaded and intentionally biased question.
 
#129
#129
Rasputin_Vol said:
Hey Grand, after this week's developments, what is Germany to do?

Should they choose between a dysfunctional and outdated military alliance in the West or should the lean towards satisfying their energy and trade dealings with the East?
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Stop beating their spouse or continue to do so?

Let me ask you some historical context, who was Russia's largest trading partner just before June 1941?

Now, does or does not Trump bring up a good question of whether or not they are holding themselves economically "hostage" by relying so much on Russia? Furthermore, is Germany (more specifically Merkel) trying to have her cake and eat it too? She wants the protection of NATO in case of a revised Russian threat. But she doesn't want to pay for it. Nor does she want to give up the gas that flows into her country from Russia.

Have I ever said Putin isn't a crafty political animal? He's a master at it. He "allows" Gazprom to build he pipeline and new terminal to Germany, gets them dependent on the new flow, then raises prices to match what they could have paid from the US, UK or other sources. They can't drop that source since the infrastructure (likely) won't support expanded imports from other sources once the new terminal has gone online and is forced to continue providing currency into the Russian government coffers.

Pretty slick if you ask me. I'd be sorely disappointed in Putin if he hasn't thought off this already.
 
#130
#130
I had to take a stroll back through this thread.

I see several posts where VolProf was actually lucid.
 
#131
#131
Grand Vol said:
Stop beating their spouse or continue to do so?

Let me ask you some historical context, who was Russia's largest trading partner just before June 1941?

Now, does or does not Trump bring up a good question of whether or not they are holding themselves economically "hostage" by relying so much on Russia? Furthermore, is Germany (more specifically Merkel) trying to have her cake and eat it too? She wants the protection of NATO in case of a revised Russian threat. But she doesn't want to pay for it. Nor does she want to give up the gas that flows into her country from Russia.

Have I ever said Putin isn't a crafty political animal? He's a master at it. He "allows" Gazprom to build he pipeline and new terminal to Germany, gets them dependent on the new flow, then raises prices to match what they could have paid from the US, UK or other sources. They can't drop that source since the infrastructure (likely) won't support expanded imports from other sources once the new terminal has gone online and is forced to continue providing currency into the Russian government coffers.

Pretty slick if you ask me. I'd be sorely disappointed in Putin if he hasn't thought off this already.
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A couple of questions and comments:

1. Why was there even a need for Russia to even build the Nordestream pipeline in the first place?
2. I had commented years ago and got horse laughed that Germany would have to pivot east for its own economic survival. Not only does Germany need Russian gas, but they also need the trade with Russia (and China, Iran, North Korea, etc.) But US/NATO sanctions are getting in the way of that trade. At some point, they will have to do what is in their best interests.
3. The US cannot supply Germany with the same reliable energy supplies at the price that the Russians are selling it for, so just stop with that. And quite frankly, we shouldn't be selling to Europe what we could be using here domestically to offset (some) foreign dependence on energy.
 
#134
#134
Rasputin_Vol said:
A couple of questions and comments:

1. Why was there even a need for Russia to even build the Nordestream pipeline in the first place?
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Because they had a buyer ready to go?

Obvious answer is obvious.

Rasputin_Vol said:
2. I had commented years ago and got horse laughed that Germany would have to pivot east for its own economic survival. Not only does Germany need Russian gas, but they also need the trade with Russia (and China, Iran, North Korea, etc.) But US/NATO sanctions are getting in the way of that trade. At some point, they will have to do what is in their best interests.
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Specifically what trade do they "need" with North Korea? And since when have we sanctioned Germany from doing trade with China?

Now, your question here ignores the question I asked. What happens when (or if) the Russians decide the price they are asking needs to be more "in line" with the rest of the world? Don't act like that's not a real possibility. Everyone manipulates prices on such things (OPEC is a prime example) and I doubt very seriously Russia will be the exception to the rule.

Rasputin_Vol said:
3. The US cannot supply Germany with the same reliable energy supplies at the price that the Russians are selling it for, so just stop with that. And quite frankly, we shouldn't be selling to Europe what we could be using here domestically to offset (some) foreign dependence on energy.
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I'd have to see a detailed breakdown on our oil and NG imports specifically detailing what countries they come from. If we are talking Canada and Mexico, well, that's another story entirely. Let's say there is a NG processing facility in Montana and a Canadian NG field right across the border. Is it cheaper (possibly safer) to build a pipeline into Canada and import it rather than transport it halfway across the country for Montana to use? Or Arizona and Mexico as another example.

The main difference is those nations aren't being talked about as a threat to our security. NATO for the most part still considers Russia a credible threat. Which NATO includes Germany. Again, why beholden yourself to and send capital into a nation which you consider a threat? Because of cheaper natural gas and oil? What's to stop the Russians once they have the Germans right where they want them to say "yeah, these prices aren't going to work, we're raising them to fair average world market prices..."

What will Germany do then? Likely pay it of course since they don't necessarily have the option to start importing it if the infrastructure isn't there. And that sends even more money to a nation the Alliance they are in considers a threat.

Trump was right to bring this up.
 
#135
#135
Rasputin_Vol said:
Merkel is a weakened leader, or did you not pay attention to the last elections?
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Did the "largely ceremonial" German President attempt to go for closer ties with Russia in the time since you posted that?

Her weakness has less to do with Russia and more to do with her opening the borders so anyone can come in.
 
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#139
#139
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#141
#141
lawgator1 said:
It was stupid as to Obama because the notion that he was somehow compromised or helping the Russians was asinine.

That Trump is compromised is obvious.
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Really obvious. So obvious that you would take the case, as it is so far, to court and win, counselor?

Isn't it funny that Mueller and Rosenstein haven't done so yet?

CaptainObvious_Popcorn-Spectator.gif
 
#142
#142
lawgator1 said:
It was stupid as to Obama because the notion that he was somehow compromised or helping the Russians was asinine.
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People said he was soft on Russia? Possibly helping them?

He knew about Russians meddling prior to a US presidential election and did nothing.

Pretty flaccid to me.
 
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#143
#143
Grand Vol said:
Because they had a buyer ready to go?

Obvious answer is obvious.
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Or, the US lead coup in the Ukraine, which was the main passage way for Russian gas pipelines into Europe. Once those became threatened, Germany and Russia had to come up with alternatives. The Nordestream and Turkstream pipelines are consequences of the Ukrainian bottle neck.

Grand Vol said:
Specifically what trade do they "need" with North Korea? And since when have we sanctioned Germany from doing trade with China?
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You are failing to see the point. The threat of sanctions lead by the US or NATO could jeopardize any future deals or agreements in the future for Germany. Whether they have any deals on the table right now is missing the point. The concern is that Germany would have to sacrifice trade its domestic manufacturing base to accomplish some sort of military objective by the US/NATO.

Grand Vol said:
Now, your question here ignores the question I asked. What happens when (or if) the Russians decide the price they are asking needs to be more "in line" with the rest of the world? Don't act like that's not a real possibility. Everyone manipulates prices on such things (OPEC is a prime example) and I doubt very seriously Russia will be the exception to the rule.
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It is very possible. Not sure what you are driving at with regards to a resolution to that, however. Should they abandon the Russian pipeline all together and strictly depend on US LNG imports? Who is to say that they wouldn't find themselves in the exact same situation with the US?

The real solution is that Germany needs to look out for its own best interests and they don't need an outdated military alliance or any other agreement to jeopardize their economy. What would be wrong with having all markets available? Russian gas imports, US imports and Qatari imports all coming in to Western Europe? Or in other words, free markets?


Grand Vol said:
I'd have to see a detailed breakdown on our oil and NG imports specifically detailing what countries they come from. If we are talking Canada and Mexico, well, that's another story entirely. Let's say there is a NG processing facility in Montana and a Canadian NG field right across the border. Is it cheaper (possibly safer) to build a pipeline into Canada and import it rather than transport it halfway across the country for Montana to use? Or Arizona and Mexico as another example.
Click to expand...
You don't really have to think to hard to realize that a pipeline directly from the source is a more efficient and convenient way of transporting vs shipping across the Atlantic.

Grand Vol said:
The main difference is those nations aren't being talked about as a threat to our security. NATO for the most part still considers Russia a credible threat. Which NATO includes Germany. Again, why beholden yourself to and send capital into a nation which you consider a threat? Because of cheaper natural gas and oil? What's to stop the Russians once they have the Germans right where they want them to say "yeah, these prices aren't going to work, we're raising them to fair average world market prices..."
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Russia is a threat to no one but to Western economic interests in the Middle East and Western Europe.

And again, the fears you bring up with regards to Russian price gauging would be just as real if the US was the main supplier.

Grand Vol said:
What will Germany do then? Likely pay it of course since they don't necessarily have the option to start importing it if the infrastructure isn't there. And that sends even more money to a nation the Alliance they are in considers a threat.
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Germany should have the same motto that we need to embrace, "commerce with all, alliances with none". Open up free trade of energy and that will force Russia to have to have competitive pricing if Germany/Western Europe also has energy demands being met by the US. Although frankly, I just don't see the US being a viable alternative. Nor should we when we have just as much of a need for those resources right here in America.

Grand Vol said:
Trump was right to bring this up.
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I agree. It not only points out Germany's paradoxical situation, but in my mind, it should open up the door for other NATO discussions. For example, Turkey.
 
#144
#144
Grand Vol said:
Did the "largely ceremonial" German President attempt to go for closer ties with Russia in the time since you posted that?

Her weakness has less to do with Russia and more to do with her opening the borders so anyone can come in.
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No, she has not. And that is a problem. Since the US-led Ukrainian coup, sanctions against Russia have hurt Western Europe far more than it has hurt Russia. Germany exports to Russia just as well as they are reliant on Russian energy imports.

The immigrant fiasco is also a problem, but then again, what was the cause of the influx of immigrants in the first place? US/Western led chaos stirred up in Syria, Libya and other locations in MENA, so it all ties together with these outdated military alliances.
 
#145
#145
Grand Vol said:
Specifically what trade do they "need" with North Korea? And since when have we sanctioned Germany from doing trade with China?
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Perfect example of what I'm talking about. Why should the US be allowed to interfere with any other country's ability to freely trade with whomever they want, rather it be Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, whomever?

Trump administration: No Iran sanctions exemptions for European allies

President Trump’s administration will refuse to exempt European allies from the new sanctions limiting targeting economic investment in Iran, Cabinet officials notified world leaders.

“We will seek to provide unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote to the allies, per NBC News.

That’s consistent with the Iran policy that Pompeo outlined after President Trump decided to exit the 2015 nuclear deal. British, French, and German officials have sought to soften the blow of the American departure, arguing that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has defused a nuclear crisis in the region. But Trump’s decision to renew sanctions on Iran jeopardizes any European companies that cooperate with blacklisted Iranian entities.

“[A]s close allies we expect that the extraterritorial effects of U.S. secondary sanctions will not be enforced on EU entities and individuals, and the United States will thus respect our political decision and the good faith of economic operators within EU legal territory,” the top diplomats from each of the allied nations wrote in a June 4 letter.
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#146
#146
Also...
Trump administration: No Iran sanctions exemptions for European allies

European officials have limited ability to defy U.S. sanctions, despite their opposition to the policies, because they can’t facilitate the financial transactions between European companies and Iranian banks.

“They cannot be paid because there is no sovereign and autonomous European financial institution [that can protect them from sanctions],” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told BFM television in June.
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Now while this is going on, Russia and China are working on an alternative payment system that would allow for sanctioned countries to still engage in commerce and not be at the mercy of US/Western whims with regards to who is being sanctioned.
 

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#147
#147
Germany doesn't have to rely on gas. If they scrapped this nazi like obsession with renewables and committed to nuclear like their neighbor did 30 years ago, they would be fine.
 
#148
#148
Weezy said:
Germany doesn't have to rely on gas. If they scrapped this nazi like obsession with renewables and committed to nuclear like their neighbor did 30 years ago, they would be fine.
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That was again one of Merkel's ideas after Fukishima.
 
#150
#150
37L1 said:
Really obvious. So obvious that you would take the case, as it is so far, to court and win, counselor?

Isn't it funny that Mueller and Rosenstein haven't done so yet?

CaptainObvious_Popcorn-Spectator.gif
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I'd try the case right now based on what is known.

They are making iron clad. So that the 30 % loons dont riot when hes led out in cuffs.
 
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