All things STOCKS

[Go aeiou]

A stock guru whose game seems to be sector rotation anticipation is talking about home builders. Is there a reason to think they may be coming into favor soon?

Manipulation of interest rates by the Fed. Lower rates mean more people qualify to buy a home/mortgage.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

A stock guru whose game seems to be sector rotation anticipation is talking about home builders. Is there a reason to think they may be coming into favor soon?

I sure hope so. I hold Rocket Companies, Floor & Decor, XHB, and MBC shares. HD is my 2nd largest individual stock.

Interest rates are still elevated, although historically not all that terrible. But people are hanging on to first houses after moving up because of the extremely low rates on mortgages issued about 20 years ago. Those loans will mature before too much longer and the incentive goes away

There’s a lot of pent up demand by 20 and 30 somethings.

TOLL and MTH.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What is a good price and timeline on a put in your opinion?

In general, I like 2/3 weeks. If you mean CRWV specifically I’ll be looking to sell puts when shares go below $90 and I’m want sell around 5% of the share price. So 2-3 weeks, $90 strike, and $4 or $5 a contract. And I like to get contracts just on the OTHER side of ones with a lot of open interest.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Had really strong gains this morning, but the Wall Street algorithms (or Bots or AI) took about half of the gains away. Hurry up closing bell before it’s ALL given back!!!

 

[walkenvol]

In general, I like 2/3 weeks. If you mean CRWV specifically I’ll be looking to sell puts when shares go below $90 and I’m want sell around 5% of the share price. So 2-3 weeks, $90 strike, and $4 or $5 a contract. And I like to get contracts just on the OTHER side of ones with a lot of open interest.

Make sure I’m understanding, you would sell at the current price 2-3 weeks out expecting to get $400-500 per contract?

 

[Vol423]

A stock guru whose game seems to be sector rotation anticipation is talking about home builders. Is there a reason to think they may be coming into favor soon?

No.

 

[Vol423]

Manipulation of interest rates by the Fed. Lower rates mean more people qualify to buy a home/mortgage.

It was the US Treasury Dept, not the Fed. The Treasury Dept announced tgatbit would "at least double" its purchases of long-dated bond issuances. There is already discussion that this move will likely force the Fed to raise rates more than they otherwise would have.

The Trump Admin needs to quit manipulating the markets.

 

[Go aeiou]

It was the US Treasury Dept, not the Fed. The Treasury Dept announced tgatbit would "at least double" its purchases of long-dated bond issuances. There is already discussion that this move will likely force the Fed to raise rates more than they otherwise would have.

The Trump Admin needs to quit manipulating the markets.

Correct. Hard to make Billions if you play fair.

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

It was the US Treasury Dept, not the Fed. The Treasury Dept announced tgatbit would "at least double" its purchases of long-dated bond issuances. There is already discussion that this move will likely force the Fed to raise rates more than they otherwise would have.

The Trump Admin needs to quit manipulating the markets.

The treasury works the long end and the fed works the short end. Everyone is watching the fed and ...abra capocus!, the treasury effectively lowers the rates! I was waiting on the 30 year to go to 5.5 before doing some rebalancing with bonds and stocks. But, the big hand steps in and makes all my grinding useless. And folks wonder why no one wants bonds anymore. The government is in the marketplace is why.

 

[Velo Vol]

The treasury works the long end and the fed works the short end. Everyone is watching the fed and ...abra capocus!, the treasury effectively lowers the rates! I was waiting on the 30 year to go to 5.5 before doing some rebalancing with bonds and stocks. But, the big hand steps in and makes all my grinding useless. And folks wonder why no one wants bonds anymore. The government is in the marketplace is why.

How long does manipulation of market rates last, though?

I sure hope so. I hold Rocket Companies, Floor & Decor, XHB, and MBC shares. HD is my 2nd largest individual stock.

Interest rates are still elevated, although historically not all that terrible. But people are hanging on to first houses after moving up because of the extremely low rates on mortgages issued about 20 years ago. Those loans will mature before too much longer and the incentive goes away

There’s a lot of pent up demand by 20 and 30 somethings.

TOLL and MTH.

A lot of would-be buyers are out unless prices reset lower, though.

But I guess sales volume doesn't necessarily need to take off for the stock prices to rebound (for one reason or another) though.

 

[Orange.]

I sure hope so. I hold Rocket Companies, Floor & Decor, XHB, and MBC shares. HD is my 2nd largest individual stock.

Interest rates are still elevated, although historically not all that terrible. But people are hanging on to first houses after moving up because of the extremely low rates on mortgages issued about 20 years ago. Those loans will mature before too much longer and the incentive goes away

There’s a lot of pent up demand by 20 and 30 somethings.

TOLL and MTH.

MTH +4.97%

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

How long does manipulation of market rates last, though?

A lot of would-be buyers are out unless prices reset lower, though.

But I guess sales volume doesn't necessarily need to take off for the stock prices to rebound (for one reason or another) though.

The problem IMO has been not enough supply. Too many homeowners have kept their original homes and inflation and interest rates a bit higher have reduced the incentive keeping builders from expanding. Lower interest rates will just raise home prices - monthly payments won’t change much.

TOL builds high end homes and many of their buyers purchase with cash and no mortgage. So Toll is doing a little better than KB, Lennar, etc.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Make sure I’m understanding, you would sell at the current price 2-3 weeks out expecting to get $400-500 per contract?

Looking for rather than expecting. $90 CRWV contract = $9,000 restricted capital x 4-5% = $360-$450. In 2-3 weeks. I’m not going to risk getting assigned at $90 for $1-$3 contracts. And at $90 current value I’d be looking to sell about $85-$88 contracts.

I also look to add a couple dollars if assigned equal to the difference between the contract strike and current share price. Like selling about an $88 if shares fall to $90. Gives me about a $5 cushion if shares continue to drop. The biggest rule that I’m violating is that I’m concerned about CRWV crashing under their debt load or diluting shares by selling treasury stock or newly issued shares.

 

[walkenvol]

CRWV under $90 now…are your criteria met?