All things STOCKS

#19,201
#19,201
NVDA, I’m not expecting too much in after hours reporting. Small bump, quick pullback tomorrow and slow incline the next few months. Jensen has been making the rounds this week and not much action in the positive on what he’s saying.
 
#19,203
#19,203
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Interest rates and tax policy are huge factors. Those high teen mortgages were pretty much deductible for every home buyer. With standard deductions so generous today, few benefit from the tax advantages of owning homes.

Owners with near zero percent mortgages don’t want to sell today.

If more workers were filling trade jobs perhaps the housing supply could grow. I think we’ve got plenty of gender studies and art history majors.
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Private equity going to ruin housing, imo. I fully expect to have to help my children buy a home.
 
#19,204
#19,204
05_never_again said:
This isn't my opinion; it's just what the data says. Relative to a 2025 average income, the average house price + interest on a mortgage is actually more expensive today than it was in 1980. Even though interest rates were near 20% in 1980. From 2005 until about 2015, there wasn't must residential construction in the US. You bought a house in the low 60s in 1980, which was right in line with the average price of a home at the time. Today, the average house price is $426,000. Incomes have not even come close to keeping pace with that.

There is a lot of bellyaching that Millennials and Gen Z do about various things, but they're not wrong when they say that affording a home is much harder than it used to be.

www.moneygeek.com

Who Had It Worse? Homebuyers in the 80s vs. Today

MoneyGeek analyzed housing, income and inflation data for all 50 states to compare and contrast homebuying climates in the 1980s and today.
www.moneygeek.com www.moneygeek.com
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Guess like with most issues, there are different data out there as just this week I saw a data based video contradicting the less affordable housing theory. Oh well - it was on the internet and matched my experience so which one should I believe?
 
#19,205
#19,205
walkenvol said:
Guess like with most issues, there are different data out there as just this week I saw a data based video contradicting the less affordable housing theory. Oh well - it was on the internet and matched my experience so which one should I believe?
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I mean...the data is what it is. Data on average incomes and average house prices is pretty objective and can be taken at face value. What other data contradicts the notion that houses are harder to afford today than in 1980?
 
#19,206
#19,206
walkenvol said:
Having purchased my first home in 1984, I disagree with the myth that 1980 comparable homes are less affordable today. I had a solid job making low 30’s and purchased a 25 year old 1400 sq ft house with 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a one car carport that needed complete cosmetic updates for the low 60’s. Mortgages were 17% - do the math.

Only way we afforded it was to have 1 car, no cable, no cell phones, no internet, no eating out, etc. Starter homes today would have been viewed as luxury homes back then.

Same thing with cars and most all consumables - pretty much everything has gotten bigger, better, more, more, etc.
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We bought our first home the week before we got married in 1981. We were tickled pink to get a "wrap around" mortgage at 10.5%. The house had 1100' on the main floor and about 500 finished in the basement.
Wife was a teacher and I was a govt auditor. Not high paying jobs.
 
#19,207
#19,207
05_never_again said:
I mean...the data is what it is. Data on average incomes and average house prices is pretty objective and can be taken at face value. What other data contradicts the notion that houses are harder to afford today than in 1980?
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Good discussion - my take away is the housing comparison is for a starter home today verse a starter home of the 80’s which is a dramatically different level of home.
 
#19,208
#19,208
95 Vol Alum said:
Private equity going to ruin housing, imo. I fully expect to have to help my children buy a home.
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PE might bail out as Millennials (and especially General Z) age out of the starter home market and the Boomers die off and/or move to assisted living. PE probably saw the demo crunch coming and are doing a big flip instead of being long term owners. Plus their tax shelter angle will diminish around a decade or so of holding the real estate.

There’s a huge transfer of wealth coming. Which could create a huge divide of wealthy versus not so much. What will well off beneficiaries spend on or invest in?
 
#19,212
#19,212
walkenvol said:
Good discussion - my take away is the housing comparison is for a starter home today verse a starter home of the 80’s which is a dramatically different level of home.
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You're not wrong. The issue though is that the kinds of homes you purchased in 1980 aren't being built today, and there are a variety of reasons for that.
 
#19,213
#19,213
Canadian lumber and Mexican cement prices haven’t helped with affordability. Plus mortgage rates were expected to fall a lot in 2025 but that can’s been kicked down the road.

ITB, XHB, TOL, KBH, and MTH could outperform in 2026.
 
#19,214
#19,214
05_never_again said:
You're not wrong. The issue though is that the kinds of homes you purchased in 1980 aren't being built today, and there are a variety of reasons for that.
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The home I purchased in the 80’s was built in the 60’s and required a bunch of sweat equity to be considered nice. I have grown kids and they are starting out in homes similar to what they grew up in without any sweat equity needed. Expectations have changed and they complain that it’s tough to meet the new expectations. If they were satisfied with a smallish home that was 20-30 years old needing updates then they wouldn’t have any trouble
 
#19,215
#19,215
walkenvol said:
The home I purchased in the 80’s was built in the 60’s and required a bunch of sweat equity to be considered nice. I have grown kids and they are starting out in homes similar to what they grew up in without any sweat equity needed. Expectations have changed and they complain that it’s tough to meet the new expectations. If they were satisfied with a smallish home that was 20-30 years old needing updates then they wouldn’t have any trouble
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Those houses are also much more expensive relative to current average incomes than 45 years ago. And that's before you even discuss any renovation costs, which are also really expensive.

Again, not my opinion, but it is what data shows. Millennials and Gen Z get grief from older generations for good reasons on certain things, but housing costs isn't one of them. It really is much harder to afford one than it used to be.
 
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#19,225
#19,225
CRWV riding the coattails on NVDA after getting crushed for a week or two.

Dell and AVGO making solid moves. AMD and SMCI are benefiting from the release.
 
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