All things STOCKS

#19,102
#19,102
Vol737 said:
Futures up nicely with a deal to reopen the .gov
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Days with these kind of pre-markets seem to often finish with losses. Selling the news after the opening buying frenzy then equities erode to the close. I hope it doesn’t happen this time. I’d like to sell some calls on shares I’ve been assigned recently (RH, CMG, FIG, SMCI, SMR, MSTR)
 
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#19,106
#19,106
Tech way down again in pre-market.

What is the deal with this sudden tech roller coaster?

I like it better when it goes up every day. :)
 
#19,107
#19,107
Prepare the submarine to DIVE DIVE DIVE!!!


Wall Street thinks we are better off with government closed. They have a point.
 
#19,109
#19,109
Jax_Vol said:
Prepare the submarine to DIVE DIVE DIVE!!!


Wall Street thinks we are better off with government closed. They have a point.
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Trading range with a negative bias ATM. Rallies are getting sold. Fear is holding back annother significant upside move. It’s going to take strong earnings to move equities upward from here.
 
#19,110
#19,110
CRWV anybody? Still too early after the IPO?

Strong partners with MSFT, NVDA, Dell…

CRWV has a preferred spot at the front of the line buying up NVDA’s Blackwell chips.

Getting enough power to all of their data centers could be a challenge.

10% discount by selling 12/19 puts. 5% off by selling the 11/21 puts.
 
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#19,111
#19,111
Thunder Good-Oil said:
CRWV anybody? Still too early after the IPO?

Strong partners with MSFT, NVDA, Dell…

CRWV has a preferred spot at the front of the line buying up NVDA’s Blackwell chips.

Getting enough power to all of their data centers could be a challenge.

10% discount by selling 12/19 puts. 5% off by selling the 11/21 puts.
Click to expand...
Ouch, but then tomorrow is another day.
 
#19,113
#19,113
Thunder Good-Oil said:
CRWV anybody? Still too early after the IPO?

Strong partners with MSFT, NVDA, Dell…

CRWV has a preferred spot at the front of the line buying up NVDA’s Blackwell chips.

Getting enough power to all of their data centers could be a challenge.

10% discount by selling 12/19 puts. 5% off by selling the 11/21 puts.
Click to expand...
If it can't hold in right around where it's at (~85), it's probably headed back to the day it debuted.
 
#19,117
#19,117
I think we’ll have a little bump if we get a rate cut in December, but if that happens may pull some out of the market ahead if q4 earnings season.
 
#19,120
#19,120
There’s some profit taking after hitting all time highs. It’s tax loss harvesting season. The data from the government won’t get back to normal for a while.

Fear of AI being another dot com bubble exists. I think that there’s a big difference between sock puppet companies sticking dot com in their names and taking worthless companies to billion dollar valuations and AI companies not investing at the same velocity.
 
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#19,121
#19,121
Thunder Good-Oil said:
There’s some profit taking after hitting all time highs. It’s tax loss harvesting season. The data from the government won’t get back to normal for a while.

Fear of AI being another dot com bubble exists. I think that there’s a big difference between sock puppet companies sticking dot com in their names and taking worthless companies to billion dollar valuations and AI companies not investing at the same velocity.
Click to expand...
I was 13 when the dotcom bubble imploded, and the access to information and what other people were saying was obviously nowhere what it is today. However, one of the biggest reasons whatever the AI trade is probably isn't analogous to the dotcom bubble is the amount of people who seem convinced that it is.

What is particularly interesting to me is that the younger crowd seems more convinced that it is than older people. I don't know if they've watched too much The Big Short and want to be the next Michael Burry (which is a great movie BTW, nothing against it), still-vivid memories of GFC as they were in high school/college, sour grapes because a lot of them haven't had the resources to participate in the equity bull market since 2009, etc. But in bubbles, the most irrationally exuberant people tend to be younger ones who don't know any better.

One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the amount of people who seemingly would rather be thought of as smart or clever than make money. You don't "look smart" by participating in the prevailing trend, but in markets that is how 98% of people make money. If you have a strong desire to be thought of in that way, trading or investing really isn't the game for you; you probably need to go be a college professor or something.
 
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#19,122
#19,122
05_never_again said:
I was 13 when the dotcom bubble imploded, and the access to information and what other people were saying was obviously nowhere what it is today. However, one of the biggest reasons whatever the AI trade is probably isn't analogous to the dotcom bubble is the amount of people who seem convinced that it is.

What is particularly interesting to me is that the younger crowd seems more convinced that it is than older people. I don't know if they've watched too much The Big Short and want to be the next Michael Burry (which is a great movie BTW, nothing against it), still-vivid memories of GFC as they were in high school/college, sour grapes because a lot of them haven't had the resources to participate in the equity bull market since 2009, etc. But in bubbles, the most irrationally exuberant people tend to be younger ones who don't know any better.

One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the amount of people who seemingly would rather be thought of as smart or clever than make money. You don't "look smart" by participating in the prevailing trend, but in markets that is how 98% of people make money. If you have a strong desire to be thought of in that way, trading or investing really isn't the game for you; you probably need to go be a college professor or something.
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There are some big differences. AI in my opinion is real but the valuations have just gotten well in front of the execution. Dot com was a different version of an existing platform. Although PCs had been around for almost 2 decades, not many understood the merge of those computers and the internet (which had actually been around longer, only in a vastly different form).

A lot of people investing in dot com picks and shovels got burned when China dumped their government subsidized equipment on the capitalists. Global Crossing, WorldCom, JDS Uniphase, etc equity holders had the right idea but were blindsided.

There’s no reason that AI won’t be the new reality. It just comes down to how quickly companies adopt and adapt. Also whether or not China can steal IP and be rewarded or punished. Ignoring AI will be fatal as it will reduce costs in the LT. So can getting into it too quickly as it could burn up or restrict available capital to deploy in things with better ROI.

Power generation, distribution, and delivery might be the safest opportunity. There are things increasing demand in addition to AI. But it’s a boring industry to own.
 
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#19,123
#19,123
05_never_again said:
I was 13 when the dotcom bubble imploded, and the access to information and what other people were saying was obviously nowhere what it is today. However, one of the biggest reasons whatever the AI trade is probably isn't analogous to the dotcom bubble is the amount of people who seem convinced that it is.

What is particularly interesting to me is that the younger crowd seems more convinced that it is than older people. I don't know if they've watched too much The Big Short and want to be the next Michael Burry (which is a great movie BTW, nothing against it), still-vivid memories of GFC as they were in high school/college, sour grapes because a lot of them haven't had the resources to participate in the equity bull market since 2009, etc. But in bubbles, the most irrationally exuberant people tend to be younger ones who don't know any better.

One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the amount of people who seemingly would rather be thought of as smart or clever than make money. You don't "look smart" by participating in the prevailing trend, but in markets that is how 98% of people make money. If you have a strong desire to be thought of in that way, trading or investing really isn't the game for you; you probably need to go be a college professor or something.
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Great input!

I had already thought of my response. Then see that Thunder has already offered up the jest of my thoughts. Thunder stole my thunder.

But, yeah…I am in the older crowd but skeptical of the impact of AI.

I do think it will be important. But, as he states, the valuations have gotten in front of the results. And secondly, the Chinese may well be able to out AI the USA.

There is fruit on the AI tree, but who truly knows when it will ripen?
 
#19,125
#19,125
Jax_Vol said:
Great input!

I had already thought of my response. Then see that Thunder has already offered up the jest of my thoughts. Thunder stole my thunder.

But, yeah…I am in the older crowd but skeptical of the impact of AI.

I do think it will be important. But, as he states, the valuations have gotten in front of the results. And secondly, the Chinese may well be able to out AI the USA.

There is fruit on the AI tree, but who truly knows when it will ripen?
Click to expand...
The eventual impact of AI will probably end up being described like the impact of the internet. Most everything that the AI bulls say about AI will end up coming true, but it will take place over a longer period of time, the number of winners will be smaller than people think, and some of the biggest winners are likely companies that nobody has even heard of or don't even exist yet.

In 2000, internet bulls thought things like CSCO was the big winner and 99.9% of retail shopping would be done on the internet within 18 months. Instead, 25 years later, you could probably argue that the biggest "winner of the internet" is probably Google. In 2000, Google was a somewhat obscure search engine that was only 2 years old.
 
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