All things STOCKS

#2,402
#2,402
BigOrangeMojo said:
American is probably my least favorite stock in my least favorite industry. There's definitely money to be made trading but if you are investing long-term, I just don't like American. Here's why I don't like American long-term.

From 2015-2019, AAL had the following tailwinds
- Booming economy
- Relatively low fuel costs
- Nearly full capacity
- Stock buybacks
- Levered balance sheet

Even with all that, the stock was down over 30%.

They could come up with a vaccine tomorrow and I still think American could be bankrupt within 12 months without another bailout. Not to make this political but do you think Biden and the Democrats would bailout a TX HQ'ed Company that had significant stock buybacks or make them be an example? The risk-reward is better with some of the low-cost carriers or you are safer with DAL or LUV. Just my $.02.
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Fuel and related expenses increased in 2017 2018 & 2019 compared to 2015 and 2016. That is the primary reason for the decrease in NI and cash flow.
Fuel expenses as a percentage of operating expenses.

2015 - 21.4% $7,456
2016 - 17.6% $6,180
2017 - 19.6% $7,510
2018 - 23.6% $9,896
2019 - 22% decreasing from $9,896 in 18 to $9,395.

If anything scares me about the entity it is the minimal amount of cash and retirement benefits.
 
#2,405
#2,405
Any thoughts on KMX (Carmax)? Bought in March and had good run up. Some short-intermediate term concern used car market may be flooded with rental vehicles from Hertz, Dollar, etc.
 
#2,407
#2,407
Grudenator said:
Isn’t hertz going out of business? Or did they just file for bankruptcy?
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I'd assume Hertz will reorganize. I know all the rental car companies are flooding used car lots due to excess supply.

I sold half of my KMX(50 shares) today at $89.40. Good company in decent industry.
 
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#2,410
#2,410
VolAllen said:
So every morning at 8am I check the TSA flyer count, but today has mysteriously not updated 🤨
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327K or 12.7% of last year. At the risk of beating a dead horse, I dont know how much longer the large legacy carriers (i.e AAL or UAL) can operate at this level without another bailout.
 
#2,413
#2,413
Orange_Vol1321 said:
I hope. I bought in CCL at 18.13 during the gradual climb. The next day they announced the covid lawsuits and it dropped to the fifteens. 🤬
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I don’t know about the cruise lines yet. I was in CCL right after the crash, in and out for a few thousand profit. But after thinking about it, no way the cruise lines rebound faster than the airlines. I like CCL for the long game, but you’ll endure some pain over the next 12 months.
 
#2,414
#2,414
Orange_Vol1321 said:
I hope. I bought in CCL at 18.13 during the gradual climb. The next day they announced the covid lawsuits and it dropped to the fifteens. 🤬
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Probably more profit taking (some of which I did) and weaker than estimated travel numbers caused the late week price drop than the lawsuits. Legal concerns were already booked into price. If CCL has a liquidity problem in the next 18 months, it will be due to travel concerns and not the lawsuits.
 
#2,415
#2,415
BigOrangeMojo said:
Probably more profit taking (some of which I did) and weaker than estimated travel numbers caused the late week price drop than the lawsuits. Legal concerns were already booked into price. If CCL has a liquidity problem in the next 18 months, it will be due to travel concerns and not the lawsuits.
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I only bought 35 shares, just sucks I missed the 3 dollar swing. The day the cruise lines are allowed to operate their stocks should climb pretty quick I'd think. Just don't need a push to open past August 1.
 
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#2,416
#2,416
VolAllen said:
I don’t know about the cruise lines yet. I was in CCL right after the crash, in and out for a few thousand profit. But after thinking about it, no way the cruise lines rebound faster than the airlines. I like CCL for the long game, but you’ll endure some pain over the next 12 months.
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I think it will take longer for the cruiselines to blow up but when they do it will be quick.
 
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#2,422
#2,422
Thoughts on Schwab (SCHW)? Thinking it may be a good E-Trade replacement in portfolio. Typically, long term investor here.
 
#2,423
#2,423
BigOrangeMojo said:
Thoughts on Schwab (SCHW)? Thinking it may be a good E-Trade replacement in portfolio. Typically, long term investor here.
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I like Schwab, Interactive Brokers, and Morgan Stanley with e-Trade. I'm surprised that Schwab isn't seeing a ton of pushback from the federal government over merging with Ameritrade. I guess it helps that Fidelity is another (non-public) discount brokerage competitor. Vanguard is as well to a degree. Also, when Goldman, JPM, Wells, and others that offer accounts are larger it might be hard to challenge SCHW as far as anti-competive or fair trade issues are concerned. Plus the thousands of local, regional, and national banks make a stronger position for SCHW to proceed.

Interactive is a richer valuation, but being focused on online their costs can be lower. Lots of room to grow.

I think that the Morgan-Stanley and e-Trade combination is going to be interesting. MS is more of a wealth management firm with a high end clientele. They're kind of buying a trading platform, but also a customer list that they can mine to expand their wealth management business with the high end e-Trade accounts.
 
#2,424
#2,424
I saw GNUS on Friday go down to about 1.8 and put in a order to buy at 1.85 but it shot up and then didn't stop. I will regret this I am sure
 
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