All things STOCKS

#751
#751
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Still watching and can't get my arms around UBER. It's way overvalued if it was simply an alternate to taxis. With a market cap of about $80B and a foothold in just under 1,000 localities, that's a value of nearly $100 million for each one. But they practically own the ride sharing concept. Younger people have really embraced not being hassled with owning vehicles to insure, maintain, park, finance, etc. for a few hours per week of use. I guess it's a trade off of convenience and freedom. They have to plan well in advance when taking vacations unless rental cars or other services are available on short notice.

UBER seems to be pretty well managed. They have to maneuver around lots of issues. I would assume that much of their spending has been legal costs related to battling various levels of governments as they've expanded their footprint. Their technical infrastructure is likely quite expensive as well. But they've also leveraged the concept with food delivery. I'm not sure which service the "green shirts" are in Knoxville, but almost every time I'm in a fast casual restaurant a couple of those drivers come and go.

The autonomous car might be the key to really locking in long term value to investors. Their drivers are malcontents. Also, the freight concept seems like a great way to leverage their technology. Right now UBER Freight is about arranging business clients with commercial trucking. But investors have placed nearly twice the value on UBER than on FedEx. I wonder if drivers will eventually be running packages all over instead of just meals?
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Another thing to consider is these ride share companies getting into the healthcare space. Lots of Medicaid/Medicare plans pay for travel of members to and from the doctor, pharmacy, rehab, etc. This usually involves a fleet of vans with specialized equipment. But lots of these people don’t need extensive care in transport, they just need a ride. And people in very rural counties may not have easy access to these services. An Uber/Lyft system in these areas could bring in an incredibly steady cash flow even if they undercut the current providers.
 
#752
#752
DancingOutlaw said:
Another thing to consider is these ride share companies getting into the healthcare space. Lots of Medicaid/Medicare plans pay for travel of members to and from the doctor, pharmacy, rehab, etc. This usually involves a fleet of vans with specialized equipment. But lots of these people don’t need extensive care in transport, they just need a ride. And people in very rural counties may not have easy access to these services. An Uber/Lyft system in these areas could bring in an incredibly steady cash flow even if they undercut the current providers.
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Good point. UBER has a division that's in the space. When competing with ambulances that charge nearly $1,000/trip there's a great opportunity there. Hopefully no matter if Trump gets a second term or not, health care cost reform will be an issue that will continue to be addressed. Things like transportation and $5 doses of aspirin during hospital stays should be easy places to start. I also like TeleDoc but haven't invested there yet. Except for a couple of trades I also kick myself for not loading up on Intuitive Surgical. Unfortunately IPOs have been transformed. They're no longer used to raise capital as that's being handled by private equity / venture capital more and more. I'm betting on Blackstone but wish that there was an efficient fund of the top 5-10 firms... but several are privately owned. I might add some Apollo. IPOs today seem to be happening later in the process and are intended for early investors to cash out instead of obtaining funding to grow the businesses.

Another advantage for UBER/Lyft is that they're creating a substantial barrier to entry for competition. Users won't want to use a small ride sharing service that they might have to wait around for an hour when UBER/Lyft can have a ride available in a couple of minutes. UBER has even begun to partner with traditional taxi services instead of driving them out of existence.

$100 million per location is still awfully rich. Plus they really need to figure out how to become profitable AND to better compensate the drivers. I don't think that driverless cars would have much impact for another 15-20 years. Also, it they evolve into an autonomous vehicle taxi service, they will be in a completely new business. They'd have to maintain, insure, finance, register, and fuel fleets of vehicles plus they'll need facilities to support them. I guess that they could contract out repairs, but they really can't have idle cars just cruising around in between rides.

It will be interesting to see how it (ride sharing) evolves. Look at how computers, PCs, cell phones, smart phones, tablets, cloud computing, social media, TV/radio/music, etc. has changed in 40 years.
 
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#753
#753
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Good point. UBER has a division that's in the space. When competing with ambulances that charge nearly $1,000/trip there's a great opportunity there. Hopefully no matter if Trump gets a second term or not, health care cost reform will be an issue that will continue to be addressed. Things like transportation and $5 doses of aspirin during hospital stays should be easy places to start. I also like TeleDoc but haven't invested there yet. Except for a couple of trades I also kick myself for not loading up on Intuitive Surgical. Unfortunately IPOs have been transformed. They're no longer used to raise capital as that's being handled by private equity / venture capital more and more. I'm betting on Blackstone but wish that there was an efficient fund of the top 5-10 firms... but several are privately owned. I might add some Apollo. IPOs today seem to be happening later in the process and are intended for early investors to cash out instead of obtaining funding to grow the businesses.

Another advantage for UBER/Lyft is that they're creating a substantial barrier to entry for competition. Users won't want to use a small ride sharing service that they might have to wait around for an hour when UBER/Lyft can have a ride available in a couple of minutes. UBER has even begun to partner with traditional taxi services instead of driving them out of existence.

$100 million per location is still awfully rich. Plus they really need to figure out how to become profitable AND to better compensate the drivers. I don't think that driverless cars would have much impact for another 15-20 years. Also, it they evolve into an autonomous vehicle taxi service, they will be in a completely new business. They'd have to maintain, insure, finance, register, and fuel fleets of vehicles plus they'll need facilities to support them. I guess that they could contract out repairs, but they really can't have idle cars just cruising around in between rides.

It will be interesting to see how it (ride sharing) evolves. Look at how computers, PCs, cell phones, smart phones, tablets, cloud computing, social media, TV/radio/music, etc. has changed in 40 years.
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Lyft is also attempting to make inroads into healthcare. My FIL has a real world example when his mother was discharged from the hospital and the hospital said they could have an ambulance take her back to her assisted living facility 5 minutes away for $800. He got her an Uber for $8 and tipped the guy another 20. He called the driver beforehand to make sure it was ok and the guy said sure I use Uber for my own mom all the time. Think how disruptive a 99% price reduction is to that space.
 
#754
#754
DancingOutlaw said:
Lyft is also attempting to make inroads into healthcare. My FIL has a real world example when his mother was discharged from the hospital and the hospital said they could have an ambulance take her back to her assisted living facility 5 minutes away for $800. He got her an Uber for $8 and tipped the guy another 20. He called the driver beforehand to make sure it was ok and the guy said sure I use Uber for my own mom all the time. Think how disruptive a 99% price reduction is to that space.
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This is a really interesting insight. All it's going to take is one major health plan/payer or a health system/IDN getting in this space, and then you'll see others follow suit. Transportation is one of the biggest barriers to care delivery and care coordination from the perspective of providers. Mobile health vendors are extremely pricey, and the law of diminishing returns is certainly in effect for the amount that payers spend on mobile care delivery, often times delivering marginal results for the most complex patient populations. I wouldn't be surprised if IDNs start looking to the tech companies to disrupt burgeoning utilization costs. This would be especially attractive in states that did not opt for Medicaid expansion.

Next time I talk to folks who are involved in care transformation at the payer level, I'll see how the health plans are thinking about these kinds of programs as a way to control costs. I'd be most interested in seeing how managed Medicaid plans are thinking of this. When I was working a large trade show geared towards the health insurance companies, all of the major mobile vendors were there. The question that I kept getting asked by providers and health plans alike, are about what kinds of solutions there are to transition away from pricey mobile vendors. Interestingly enough, there were your healthcare informatics/analytics companies there, but you didn't have any of the large tech companies.
 
#756
#756
Every time I look to sell my spotify stock with a sell limit it dips down. Just want out and to break even, it's teasing me.
 
#758
#758
Those Liberals didn't do their research either. The guy that they're triggered over has been retired from Home Depot for 15 years. Plus he's going to donate most of his billions to charity. So if they were to accomplish their goal of taking down HD they're actually hurting the organizations since he'd be donating less.
 
#759
#759
>mfw I sold at both targets at the top the BTC bearish Cypher pattern

Love watching the markets bleed while I stay in Tether and TUSD. Harmonics and Fibonacci retracements have been very effective during the recent BTC bullrun

1517781760228.jpg
 
#760
#760
GoVolsDR said:
>mfw I sold at both targets at the top the BTC bearish Cypher pattern

Love watching the markets bleed while I stay in Tether and TUSD. Harmonics and Fibonacci retracements have been very effective during the recent BTC bullrun

1517781760228.jpg
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wut
 
#764
#764
GoVolsDR said:
>mfw I sold at both targets at the top the BTC bearish Cypher pattern

Love watching the markets bleed while I stay in Tether and TUSD. Harmonics and Fibonacci retracements have been very effective during the recent BTC bullrun

1517781760228.jpg
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FYI-Most people on this forum only speak English 😄
 
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#765
#765
Thunder Good-Oil said:
There's really very little to use to determine the values placed on crypto-currencies. Technical analysts look at price trends and other math. Not much difference than going to Vegas IMO.
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Charting and TA does work with your major crypto assets, and it's much more effective the longer the time scale you apply. Looking at the charts in log scale, you can nicely graph the ascending and descending trendlines. I've been making my trades based on the daily candlestick closes back from the last time BTC traded in these levels, 2017 and early 2018. I'm not using leverage or anything, just my own cash, so I'm extremely conservative with my trades, and set tight buy and sell orders. Long term I'm so bullish on BTC, but my strategy is to in the short term look to scalp and make swing trades, typically based on price action around the 4 hour. The bulls should take notice of the weekly chart, as you have a shooting star forming this week, just like 2 weeks ago before BTC tested critical support of 10k - I think that we test 10k again before the price action touches anything about 13k.

The overwhelming majority of cryptocurrencies are heavily shilled, inflated, and manipulated scam coins however. Even on exchanges like Binance, you have so many random assets that are highly volatile, manipulated, and lightly traded, and some of which even trade against Tether (a USD stablecoin). I wouldn't even bother trying to do any TA on these pump and dump scams since they're so manipulated.

Bitcoin, Ethereum (also very bullish long term), Litcoin, and Ethereum are the only assets I've been taking positions in lately to actively trade.
 
#766
#766
Also, Libra is the worst thing that could potentially happen to crypto. FB is trying to completely ZUCC crypto.
 
#768
#768
And today, we see Bitcoin hit the bottom of the bearish cypher pattern.

Time to let the downtrend playout, and look for the inevitable retrace.
 
#769
#769
Thunder Good-Oil said:
There's really very little to use to determine the values placed on crypto-currencies. Technical analysts look at price trends and other math. Not much difference than going to Vegas IMO.
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Yeah--while I think there is going to a lot more use of crypto used in modern purchasing power in the near future--you still have to convert these into dollars as of right now. At the end of the day I still want Benny's in my bank account and those monies are protected to some degree. The crypto wars are coming though with Libra getting into the game.
 
#771
#771
TC 83 said:
Yeah--while I think there is going to a lot more use of crypto used in modern purchasing power in the near future--you still have to convert these into dollars as of right now. At the end of the day I still want Benny's in my bank account and those monies are protected to some degree. The crypto wars are coming though with Libra getting into the game.
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Libra is antithetical to everything that crypto stands for. It will never be accepted as a stablecoin, when it's literally just FB getting into the business of securitization. Now, It's certainly a business that they're more than liquid enough to get into. But Libra is just this disgusting hybrid of tokens like XRP and USDT.
 
#772
#772
Sold spotify moved it over to alibaba, supposed to have an 8 to 1 split this year and also bought more Aurora.
 
#773
#773
This is Black Sunday level bad. An all time low for negative momentum on the RSI oscillator for Bitcoin on the futures market. China is waking up and they're about to slam the price action even lower.

For me, BTC is a buy once we're in the 8k range. I don't even think a test of the 5-6k levels are out of the picture. Once there's some value to be had I'll put my Tether back into Bitcoin.
 
#775
#775
GoVolsDR said:
Libra is antithetical to everything that crypto stands for. It will never be accepted as a stablecoin, when it's literally just FB getting into the business of securitization. Now, It's certainly a business that they're more than liquid enough to get into. But Libra is just this disgusting hybrid of tokens like XRP and USDT.
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I just want to see how all these other coins react with each other. I don't see how they can all exist in the next couple years. Won't eventually 1 coin have to cannibalize the others? My understanding of crypto is very shallow at best but it's extremely interesting. I saw where the Dolphin's stadium was going to accept Litecoin as payment at their games this season? With the volitlity in crypto it just seems like a crazy idea for the vendors.
 
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