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Firebirdparts

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Lots of earnings today. Lots. INTC might be one of the more interesting ones.
INTC down 10% after hours. Bring on the corporate welfare. Some drag on some other chip stocks right now (at 4:30 pm).
 

Ernest T. Vol

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Lots of earnings today. Lots. INTC might be one of the more interesting ones.
INTC down 10% after hours. Bring on the corporate welfare. Some drag on some other chip stocks right now (at 4:30 pm).
Multi-year low already in place. Next support on the chart is around $33 from July 2017. They need something on the call to offer some hope. Ugly is not the word.
 

tbh

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Multi-year low already in place. Next support on the chart is around $33 from July 2017. They need something on the call to offer some hope. Ugly is not the word.
An EPS miss is one thing (and something I honestly expected with INTC), but dang...a miss by well over half of the consensus estimate? That is rough. Do y'all think this is the start of a death-spiral of sorts that leads to cutting/eliminating their dividend, or will corporate welfare swoop in to save the day? Their 12 month trailing payout ratio (before the news yesterday, at least) was sitting around 30%, which is one reason I was sitting tight with the position...
 

Ernest T. Vol

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An EPS miss is one thing (and something I honestly expected with INTC), but dang...a miss by well over half of the consensus estimate? That is rough. Do y'all think this is the start of a death-spiral of sorts that leads to cutting/eliminating their dividend, or will corporate welfare swoop in to save the day? Their 12 month trailing payout ratio (before the news yesterday, at least) was sitting around 30%, which is one reason I was sitting tight with the position...

Corp welfare is in place already. The chips bill got through both houses yesterday and is ready for Biden's sig. INTC is on a 7 year div growth streak but I wouldn't be surprised to see that end. I haven't looked at the payout ratio with these latest earnings but probably getting high. My guess is they wont reduce it, just break the 7 year streak. I still own and will keep.
 
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tbh

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Corp welfare is in place already. The chips bill got through both houses yesterday and is ready for Biden's sig. INTC is on a 7 year div growth streak but I wouldn't be surprised to see that end. I haven't looked at the payout ratio with these latest earnings but probably getting high. My guess is they wont reduce it, just break the 7 year streak. I still own and will keep.
10-4, that's reassuring. I'm likely going to hold on to what I have and see where it goes given my 2-ish decade time horizon.
 
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Ernest T. Vol

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10-4, that's reassuring. I'm likely going to hold on to what I have and see where it goes given my 2-ish decade time horizon.
Next div declaration expected in the third week of September for a payout in the first week of December. If no change, then traditionally, that would complete a 4 quarter div run at .365 cents. The next earnings report in October will be key for the January declaration date.
 
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Firebirdparts

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What exactly is the deal with INTC as a company? Are they simply behind NVDA and AMD in terms of the technology?
Just google it. Articles everywhere. They are technologically behind.

I must say, FWIW, latest and greatest is not really necessary for a lot of applications. There are plenty of places where you wouldn't really care if a chip was 10 times bigger, as long as it was reliable. Turns out, cars are exactly that application, and that's where there aren't chips available. But anyway, corporate welfare will dictate the next steps now.

It's been interesting that SPY is up enthusiastically on a day when some of these chip stocks are down 10%.
 

05_never_again

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What's being anticipated that wasn't in the cards a month ago?
Not necessarily, but just saying that when the market began its decline initially earlier this year, all the headlines were good; in fact, those good headlines were used as rationale by people that this was just a "correction" that would be limited to a 10% decline or so.

Not saying this is the bottom, but when markets bottom, the headlines are terrible. It isn't like the news gets a lot better, and then the market turns around.
 
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BigOrangeMojo

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Years of poor management and complacency
Instead of investing for the future, they focused most of their efforts in branding their desktop chips. Of course, the world changed and the demand is for phones, data center, large consumer electronics, and gaming chips, which Intel is so far behind technology wise.

In an environment that should be incredible for an asset heavy chip company, they lost billions of dollars last quarter.

The only bright spot for them is the US Govt is willing to give them tens of billions of dollars for them to try to catch up
 
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mrorange211

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I've found a model based on liquidity that seems pretty accurate. It showed a spike this week but now project S&P to be 3600-3800 in 1-2 weeks. This model has been right 95% since July 2020. I'm eager to see if it gets the next 10 trading days correct.
 

Thunder Good-Oil

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Instead of investing for the future, they focused most of their efforts in branding their desktop chips. Of course, the world changed and the demand is for phones, data center, large consumer electronics, and gaming chips, which Intel is so far behind technology wise.

In an environment that should be incredible for an asset heavy chip company, they lost billions of dollars last quarter.

The only bright spot for them is the US Govt is willing to give them tens of billions of dollars for them to try to catch up
Intel lost a half a billion last quarter, not billions.

They also spend over $20 billion on CapEx.

They have several growing businesses that are only a couple percent of their entire company. MobileEye is about a $2 billion segment.

X86 still throws off a lot of cash. They need to do a good job of investing it properly. Building domestic and European manufacturing facilities should pay off in the long run.

They haven’t leveraged their legacy business well - unlike companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix.
 
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Thunder Good-Oil

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Here’s the half billion loss:

Intel's Q2 2022 earnings report today was uncharacteristically disappointing, but it also hid a new announcement: Intel is ending its Optane business entirely. During the earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger clarified the vaguely worded announcement in the earnings documents, confirming that Intel will wind down its Optane business. The move incurs a $559 million inventory impairment/write-off.
 

BigOrangeMojo

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Intel lost a half a billion last quarter, not billions.

They also spend over $20 billion on CapEx.

They have several growing businesses that are only a couple percent of their entire company. MobileEye is about a $2 billion segment.

X86 still throws off a lot of cash. They need to do a good job of investing it properly. Building domestic and European manufacturing facilities should pay off in the long run.

They haven’t leveraged their legacy business well - unlike companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix.
Again, this is a company that could not see where this industry was going and I am supposed to subsidize their stupidity. I have no problem giving incentives to companies that will provide a return on the investment. I have another problem giving it to a company thay has consistently been outmanuvered and outexecuted by its competitors.

$20B seems like a lot of Capex but again, they haven't properly invested in the past. At some point, you have to play catch up for your prior underinvestment...
 

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