All things STOCKS

#8,326
#8,326
kiddiedoc said:
Anyone know why Fidelity won't allow me to purchase several of the penny stocks I've seen recommended? Most recent example was $LTNC.
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Call them. As Thunder g o is correct.
My broker doesn't like market trades on penny stocks. Often the bid/ask spreads are significant.
 
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#8,327
#8,327
Does anyone have any opinions on where treasury yields are headed and at what speed? I think a leveraged ETF to inverse treasuries would be interesting. I've traded leveraged ETFs before and am aware of decay, but if the rate of yield increase continues, this could be a nice setup. 10Y was in the 3s in 2018 and in the 1.8s before covid. I doubt we get back there this year, but I could see the momentum pushing through the 1.5s fairly quickly. That would be a move of 15-20 bps for yield which would be 10+%. This should cause a reciprocal move down in price. A short leveraged ETF could move up for a pretty nice gain outpacing decay for a 4-6 week period. Any thoughts?
 
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#8,328
#8,328
WSB stocks all spiking up again. Hoping NOK is part of this surge. Up about 7% so far this morning, but lagging behind the others. Like to see it break 4.34 then we could see some fireworks.
 
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#8,329
#8,329
TheColdVolTruth said:
if the rate of yield increase continues,
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That’s a lot to ask. I have no prediction but I’m trying to decide whether to sell or buy more, not apply inverse leverage. In retrospect, it would have been okay to hold an inverse LTT leveraged fund, had they existed, in part of the 1970s. I can’t see predicting that enough to gamble actual money on it.
 
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#8,330
#8,330
TheColdVolTruth said:
Does anyone have any opinions on where treasury yields are headed and at what speed? I think a leveraged ETF to inverse treasuries would be interesting. I've traded leveraged ETFs before and am aware of decay, but if the rate of yield increase continues, this could be a nice setup. 10Y was in the 3s in 2018 and in the 1.8s before covid. I doubt we get back there this year, but I could see the momentum pushing through the 1.5s fairly quickly. That would be a move of 15-20 bps for yield which would be 10+%. This should cause a reciprocal move down in price. A short leveraged ETF could move up for a pretty nice gain outpacing decay for a 4-6 week period. Any thoughts?
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I dont think there is anything harder than predicting the movement of T bond yields. I've always been wrong when I've tried.
I've been wrong about interest rates over and over and over.
If you can do it you should be thilthy rich.
 
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#8,331
#8,331
#8,335
#8,335
Firebirdparts said:
CCIV/Lucid may have hit bottom. Thoughts?
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I was in CCIV/Lucid until about $60 and sold once the CEO went on talking about how much better they were than Tesla without even having a product. My opinion is that they were booming solely on EV hype. I'll probably buy back in if it goes under $20 again.
 
#8,336
#8,336
lmoore944 said:
I was in CCIV/Lucid until about $60 and sold once the CEO went on talking about how much better they were than Tesla without even having a product. My opinion is that they were booming solely on EV hype. I'll probably buy back in if it goes under $20 again.
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This whole sector is going to be huge in 5-10-15 years - it's just picking Google or Ask Jeeves.
 
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#8,340
#8,340
Kingston Vol said:
This whole sector is going to be huge in 5-10-15 years - it's just picking Google or Ask Jeeves.
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Great way of putting it.

The bubbleheads are right whenever they talk about some kind of technology being a big disruptor and ultimately changing the way we do things. The problem is that the sector as a whole is incredibly overvalued at the time they're hyping it up, and if you're attempting to pick names some of those names are going to turn out to be the MySpace of whatever industry it is you're talking about.

It's really easy to conflate "this technology is going to change the world!" with "stock XYZ is a great buy today!"
 
#8,342
#8,342
05_never_again said:
Great way of putting it.

The bubbleheads are right whenever they talk about some kind of technology being a big disruptor and ultimately changing the way we do things. The problem is that the sector as a whole is incredibly overvalued at the time they're hyping it up, and if you're attempting to pick names some of those names are going to turn out to be the MySpace of whatever industry it is you're talking about.

It's really easy to conflate "this technology is going to change the world!" with "stock XYZ is a great buy today!"
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On EVs in particular, I imagine Tesla will be the winner - but you're already pricing in that crazy growth. I don't see a reason to buy it today.

Otherwise, I think Apple is a smart play. And then I'd bet some of the traditional car manufacturers still control the space: VW, Toyota, etc.
 
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#8,345
#8,345
Kingston Vol said:
On EVs in particular, I imagine Tesla will be the winner - but you're already pricing in that crazy growth. I don't see a reason to buy it today.

Otherwise, I think Apple is a smart play. And then I'd bet some of the traditional car manufacturers still control the space: VW, Toyota, etc.
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I think TSLA certainly has the best chance to survive the group viewed as EV plays currently, but I think the legacy automakers will be the true winners that out the most EVs in garages around the world. I think F, GM, TM, and VW will be the real winners on EVs. Their infrastructure will be difficult to overcome for any of the startups.
 
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#8,346
#8,346
TheColdVolTruth said:
I think TSLA certainly has the best chance to survive the group viewed as EV plays currently, but I think the legacy automakers will be the true winners that out the most EVs in garages around the world. I think F, GM, TM, and VW will be the real winners on EVs. Their infrastructure will be difficult to overcome for any of the startups.
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That's right.

Tesla has enough money now to be considered a power player. I think Apple does as well - there's some question as to how interested they are to get into this space. I've seen a lot of speculation that they may have more interest in being the operating system for one of the major manufacturers - they were in talks with Hyundai to do just that.
 
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#8,347
#8,347
Kingston Vol said:
By the way, I'd love to get some recommendations on y'all's favorite investment books.
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The Intelligent Investor and The Richest Man in Babylon. I would also consider Thinking Fast and Slow, Zero to One, and Never Split the Difference. They're not directly related to investing, but they dive into cognitive evaluation that could pertain to investing.
 
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#8,348
#8,348
TheColdVolTruth said:
The Intelligent Investor and The Richest Man in Babylon. I would also consider Thinking Fast and Slow, Zero to One, and Never Split the Difference. They're not directly related to investing, but they dive into cognitive evaluation that could pertain to investing.
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Those are all great books, and they might as well be directly related to investing because investing (or just money management generally) is predominantly a behavioral rather than an intellectual exercise.

You don't have to be an intellectual genius to be a good investor - in fact, there are situations where being extremely intelligent could be a hindrance to being a good investor (look at that group that ran LTCM). Sound investing first and foremost is about being a disciplined risk manager, which doesn't really have all that much to do with intelligence. That's also probably why a lot of really intelligent people (like doctors and lawyers) are stereotypically bad with money. They think it is an intellectual exercise, and since they are "smart" they assume they'll be good at it.
 
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#8,349
#8,349
I like "Where are the customer's yachts?" and thankfully the whole idea behind that has melted away *unless* you have an advisor. After that, "the four pillars of investing" by Bernstein. Neither of these really deal with getting yourself under control, which is the really important thing.

One of the very best things you can read is the SPIVA report that explores whether or not stock pickers are outperforming the S&P500. SPIVA
 
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