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Ernest T. Vol

It's me...Ernest T.
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Well, I like large dividend payers too. The bulk of my investments are in them. Just a quick look:

BTI has a div yield at today's closing price of 8.59%. That gives me pause as being too high and unsustainable. I get suspicious if something is significantly over 4%. The payout ratio of that div is 71% also is a red flag. That seems too much being paid out of earnings instead of being used for working capital. They didn't seem to participate in the general market run up over the past few years. In fact that thing has been in a downtrend of 55% from the all time highs.

HMC has been in an overall downtrend since an all time high in Feb 2018. Its still off 20% from that all time high even after this recent run from the market bottom on Christmas Eve. I don't like any stock that stays well below a trending market for too long. I've got conflicting info on the dividend but I wouldn't consider it an overriding reason to buy.

ARI has a div yield at today's price close of 10.36%. Too high. In fact, it has a payout ratio for that div over 100%. That's not a dividend, its a return of your capital. They haven't increased the div the past couple of years because they cant. But, the overall trend of the price seems better. They participated with the market. Their chart looks way better than the other two.

Just a quick casual look of the divs and price performance but its not everything. You may know something I don't.
 

Vol8188

revolUTion in the air!
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Anyone use any junk bond funds? I’m looking at iShares FALN fund. With interest rates climbing the bond market makes sense to me.

Thoughts?
 

TennVOLS93

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Wish I’d bought it yesterday before the earnings report came out.
Yea I just looked, and it's up like $8 already. I've considered mainly due to the possibility of them developing a car. That thing would be nuts and I would expect the stock would follow. Hard to buy based on rumors though.
 

DancingOutlaw

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Wish I’d bought it yesterday before the earnings report came out.
Apple partners with Aetna to launch health app leveraging Apple Watch data

This is the future for Apple. Imagine the value in all that health data they’re collecting off watches and phones. A watch that can remind you to get a vaccine, visit your PCP, warn you of heart anomalies, etc. A lot of Medicaid/Medicare contracts set benchmarks for things like how many members get a mammogram or a physical. Meeting these goals can mean tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to the insurance companies per year. This could be leveraged into some serious revenue for Apple.
 
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Apple and China is an interesting dance. Apple manufacturing exploits what China has to offer, but IP thieves and potential competitors counter balance the relation. But Apple also has a lot of Chinese iPhone customers.

I doubt that Apple can continue to depend on upgrade cycles of $1,000 phones. IMO their subscriptions services will be their future driver.
 

TennVOLS93

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Apple and China is an interesting dance. Apple manufacturing exploits what China has to offer, but IP thieves and potential competitors counter balance the relation. But Apple also has a lot of Chinese iPhone customers.

I doubt that Apple can continue to depend on upgrade cycles of $1,000 phones. IMO their subscriptions services will be their future driver.
Agreed on subscriptions. I'm cheap, yet I happily pay $9.99 a month for apple music for the convenience. What is your opinion of the Aetna partnership?
 

TennVOLS93

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I think I'm finally going to dive into the stock market a little bit. I have a 401K through work, but want to invest a little on the side myself. This will be a completely new portfolio and will not be anything drastic right now. When I say small, I mean like $1,500-2,000 small. Would like to get feedback on these for a starter portfolio. Here is the few individual stocks I am considering.

Cron
Apple
Visa

Also which platform do you all recommend? Looking for app friendly.
 

GoVolsDR

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Apple partners with Aetna to launch health app leveraging Apple Watch data

This is the future for Apple. Imagine the value in all that health data they’re collecting off watches and phones. A watch that can remind you to get a vaccine, visit your PCP, warn you of heart anomalies, etc. A lot of Medicaid/Medicare contracts set benchmarks for things like how many members get a mammogram or a physical. Meeting these goals can mean tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to the insurance companies per year. This could be leveraged into some serious revenue for Apple.
Apple, Microsoft, Google, and others have been trying to enter the healthcare space for quite some time. There are a number of avenues that these companies can enter for healthcare: everything from remote patient monitoring (AAPL), population health management services/products (SaaS), medical supply and distribution (AMZN could be a huge player in this space - have some personal background with AMZN getting into healthcare), and Artificial Intelligence and Auto-DX (MSFT and GOOG already making plays here).

The healthcare space is going to look very different, and they look to disrupt the existing players. I'd be really curious to see if GOOG or MSFT enter the space of Electronic Medical Record platforms, or enter the Value Based Care MSO arena. That is a huge growth area in healthcare as providers are transitioning from a volume based care / fee for service model, and are now dealing with the reality of a value based care / pay for performance model.
 

Vol8188

revolUTion in the air!
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I think I'm finally going to dive into the stock market a little bit. I have a 401K through work, but want to invest a little on the side myself. This will be a completely new portfolio and will not be anything drastic right now. When I say small, I mean like $1,500-2,000 small. Would like to get feedback on these for a starter portfolio. Here is the few individual stocks I am considering.

Cron
Apple
Visa

Also which platform do you all recommend? Looking for app friendly.
I’d do an IRA through Ally. If you decide not to do an IRA, Robinhood is free.

Cron- no company is worth 600x it’s current earnings or 19 times its book value

AAPL- I mentioned what like earlier. What I don’t like is their price to book (6.21) and price to sales (2.9). Granted neither of those are absolutely horrific. It’s something I’m considering right now.

And by visa do you mean ticker symbol V?

Like this though. I like the idea of all of us using this thread to bounce things off each either
 

TennVOLS93

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I’d do an IRA through Ally. If you decide not to do an IRA, Robinhood is free.

Cron- no company is worth 600x it’s current earnings or 19 times its book value

AAPL- I mentioned what like earlier. What I don’t like is their price to book (6.21) and price to sales (2.9). Granted neither of those are absolutely horrific. It’s something I’m considering right now.

And by visa do you mean ticker symbol V?

Like this though. I like the idea of all of us using this thread to bounce things off each either
I've been looking into Robinhood since it will be a simple portfolio. That is correct, I am talking about V. They are up $80 over 5 years, dominate their market, and have good leadership.

I looked at CRON, just to have somewhat of a cheap/risky third option. I've also looked into Molson Coors, they just partnered with a pot stock company in Canada (HEXO) to do a cannibas drink in Canada. Molson Coors-tied cannabis producer Hexo raises $43.3 million

Small dividend and low P/E
 
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DancingOutlaw

No sloppy, slimy eggs plz
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Apple, Microsoft, Google, and others have been trying to enter the healthcare space for quite some time. There are a number of avenues that these companies can enter for healthcare: everything from remote patient monitoring (AAPL), population health management services/products (SaaS), medical supply and distribution (AMZN could be a huge player in this space - have some personal background with AMZN getting into healthcare), and Artificial Intelligence and Auto-DX (MSFT and GOOG already making plays here).

The healthcare space is going to look very different, and they look to disrupt the existing players. I'd be really curious to see if GOOG or MSFT enter the space of Electronic Medical Record platforms, or enter the Value Based Care MSO arena. That is a huge growth area in healthcare as providers are transitioning from a volume based care / fee for service model, and are now dealing with the reality of a value based care / pay for performance model.
Information is the new oil. It will drive everything. The ability to aggregate vital data, assess it and convert that to actionable services for customers is what it's all about now. Apple can’t rely on a new phone every year, and I don’t think they plan to. These devices are data collection points, they can now use that network of devices to gather data and decide how to monetize it. They are going to Facebook healthcare, except that healthcare is slightly more important to our GDP than the junk on Facebook.
 

Vol8188

revolUTion in the air!
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I've been looking into Robinhood since it will be a simple portfolio. That is correct, I am talking about V. They are up $80 over 5 years, dominate their market, and have good leadership.

I looked at CRON, just to have somewhat of a cheap/risky third option. I've also looked into Molson Coors, they just partnered with a pot stock company in Canada (HEXO) to do a cannibas drink in Canada. Molson Coors-tied cannabis producer Hexo raises $43.3 million

Small dividend and low P/E
Cron doesn’t make any money. I wouldn’t pay a penny for it.

Visa makes money. But it’s reflected in the price. They’re at 30 p/e. I try to never buy anything above 15. Price to sales and to book are all high also. I think it’s a safe bet. I just don’t see it as a bargain.
 
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I think I'm finally going to dive into the stock market a little bit. I have a 401K through work, but want to invest a little on the side myself. This will be a completely new portfolio and will not be anything drastic right now. When I say small, I mean like $1,500-2,000 small. Would like to get feedback on these for a starter portfolio. Here is the few individual stocks I am considering.

Cron
Apple
Visa

Also which platform do you all recommend? Looking for app friendly.
Schwab and Ameritrade. Not bad stocks either.

Visa or Apple if you want to be safe. CRON if you like to gamble.
 
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Agreed on subscriptions. I'm cheap, yet I happily pay $9.99 a month for apple music for the convenience. What is your opinion of the Aetna partnership?
I like CVS if that's what you're asking about. Healthcare and Financials are my two favorite sectors. I think that if the Right and Left can ever work together that the multiple layers of middlemen in healthcare could be big targets. But the 3 big pharmacy benefits managers are all subsidiaries (inside of Cigna, UNH, CVS). I like that CVS is diversified and vertically integrated. But they might also be into too much. I really don't know how their revenue mix is distributed, but their footprint is huge. They've been consolidating, but it won't surprise me if there are ultimately spin offs instead. The Feds may not like that they're into about everything short of drug manufacturing (I assume they're not doing that yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if they bought a generic drug company at some point). JNJ and CVS are two of my favorite US healthcare operators. Market caps of Big Pharma are enormous, but will they be allowed to continue gouging the US consumer without pushback from reformists in DC?
 

GoVolsDR

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I like CVS if that's what you're asking about. Healthcare and Financials are my two favorite sectors. I think that if the Right and Left can ever work together that the multiple layers of middlemen in healthcare could be big targets. But the 3 big pharmacy benefits managers are all subsidiaries (inside of Cigna, UNH, CVS). I like that CVS is diversified and vertically integrated. But they might also be into too much. I really don't know how their revenue mix is distributed, but their footprint is huge. They've been consolidating, but it won't surprise me if there are ultimately spin offs instead. The Feds may not like that they're into about everything short of drug manufacturing (I assume they're not doing that yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if they bought a generic drug company at some point). JNJ and CVS are two of my favorite US healthcare operators. Market caps of Big Pharma are enormous, but will they be allowed to continue gouging the US consumer without pushback from reformists in DC?
The play with CVS and Aetna, if I am reading the tea leaves correctly, is for their to partnership to take the form of care delivery at CVS retail locations. This is something that UHG has already been doing through Optum and their subsidiaries. But when you look at the retail locations that CVS has, those can serve essentially as retail health centers. I think eventually that this is the play that Walgreens and Humana will pursue eventually.

I think that the other disruptor is Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon. I see that as being a huge threat to the traditional medical device/supply distribution model. Likewise, I think that this is as major threat to big pharma as well. Looking at Amazon's previous acquisitions of online pharmacy platforms, and HIPPA compliant information sharing platforms, I think that pharma is the next space that AMZN is looking to get into.
 
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Well, CVS has owned Aetna for a little over two months now. Obviously there are synergies... but like I said above, the government might make their model an issue at some point. Amazon also has to tread lightly to avoid the anti-justice factions from sniffing around.
 

Go aeiou

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Anyone use any junk bond funds? I’m looking at iShares FALN fund. With interest rates climbing the bond market makes sense to me.

Thoughts?
It is best to buy bonds, bond funds, and etf's when interest rates are falling. If the interest rates are rising the nav of a bond goes down.
High Yield corporate bonds have a slightly different twist. They are more susceptible to the conditions of the economy. In 2008-09 when it looked like we might slide into a depression bonds yields went down. Junk bond yields increased because they are bonds of troubled companies, and a bad economy make the company more likely to fail.
I have not looked at the fund you mentioned, and I own the VG high yield corporate bond fund. I bought a sizable amount in 2008, and have done well, but I was very concerned when I really didn't know how things were going to come out. I also bought stocks then. It is just the way I invest.

If you want in a junk bond fund you might consider buying the minimum and buy a little each month. OTOH, interest rates have been low for 10+ years now and a prolonged era of high interest rates would be painful if you wanted to sell.
 

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