AI - ChatGPT Prediction for Tennessee Football

#1
T2P_Priceless

T2P_Priceless

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#1
Here’s my quick, grounded outlook for 2025 Tennessee, based on what we know right now.


Snapshot​


  • Identity: Defense-first again. ESPN’s final preseason SP+ has the Vols No. 4 on defense, No. 33 on offense, No. 12 overall (avg. win total ~8.9). That tracks with the last two seasons where the D has carried more of the load. On3
  • Roster texture: More proven pieces return on defense (≈67% returning production) than on offense (≈49%). Offense traded “experienced but capped” for “younger, higher-upside but unproven,” especially at WR/OL. Rocky Top Talk
  • QB room: After the Nico → UCLA saga, Joey Aguilar (App State → UCLA → UT) is trending toward QB1; big arm, real experience, but turnover history that Heupel is trying to rein in. True frosh George MacIntyre is flashing but more of a future play. ESPN.comCBSSports.comSIRocky Top Talk

Unit-by-unit​


Offense (swingy):


  • WRs: More talent, less proof. Chris Brazzell (Tulane transfer) is working back from a camp injury; sophomores Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley have legit breakout buzz. If two of those three hit, the ceiling jumps. Rocky Top Talk+1
  • OL: Expect ~4 new starters rotating in; that usually means early volatility in protection/penalty rates before it gels. Rocky Top Talk
  • QB fit: Aguilar knows how to push it (6,760 yds/56 TD last two years at App State) but also threw 24 INTs over that span; success hinges on cutting the freebies while getting to Heupel tempo. CBSSports.com

Defense (stable-to-elite):


  • Coordinator continuity: Tim Banks is back on an extension; culture and scheme continuity matter. ESPN.comUniversity of Tennessee Athletics
  • Talent churn: Replacing James Pearce Jr. (1st-rounder) is non-trivial, but the front seven remains deep (Bailey, Moi, Eason, West; Hobbs’ health is one to watch). Secondary returns legit pieces. Expect top-10-ish performance again. Atlanta Falcons247SportsRocky Top Talk

Schedule shape & swing games​



Prediction (regular season)​


  • Base case: 9–3 (5–3 SEC) — defense holds top-10 form; offense is average-to-good with occasional volatility.
  • Ceiling: 10–2 — hits if Aguilar protects the ball and two young WRs pop.
  • Floor: 7–5 — if OL cohesion lags and the turnover bug bites in Tuscaloosa/Gainesville/UGA.

Why 9–3 is most likely: The market/computers love the defense (SP+ No. 4), the schedule is manageable outside of UGA/Bama, and the offense has enough raw juice to be better in November than September—just not proven enough to project a clean run through those heavies today. On3University of Tennessee Athletics


If you want, I can map out win probabilities game-by-game from SP+ and note where your WR/OL “youth breakout” assumptions would swing things 3–5% per matchup.
 
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#3
#3
I answered yes, ChatGPT response...

love this prompt. here’s a straight-up, numbers-first Tennessee outlook that bakes in your “defense ahead of the offense, but lots of young WR/OL upside” note.


Where SP+ has Tennessee right now​


  • Team: No. 12 in preseason SP+ (overall rating +19.4).
    Offense: No. 33. Defense: No. 4. Avg projected wins: 8.9 vs the No. 24 SOS. ESPN.com
  • QB picture: signs point to Joey Aguilar (App State → UCLA → UT) leading a three-man battle with Jake Merklinger and 5-star George MacIntyre. Aguilar’s Tennessee move is reported by ESPN/Reuters, with local outlets noting he’s trending toward QB1. ESPN.comReutersAll for Tennessee
  • WR/OL youth: WR coach Kelsey Pope has been pumping up Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, while Chris Brazzell II is back practicing (limited). UT also says it’s a revamped OL after replacing four starters. That aligns with your “more talented yet unproven” read. University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Game-by-game win odds (SP+ based)​


Method: I used Connelly’s preseason SP+ rating for both teams, then applied a standard ~2.5-point home-field (0 for neutral). The SP+ rating gap maps to a win probability via a normal model (≈17-point SD)—a common back-of-the-envelope way to turn SP+ spreads into odds. (It’s an approximation, but it lines up well with SP+ projected wins.) ESPN.comX (formerly Twitter)Reddit


Schedule reference: official UT 2025 schedule (date/site). University of Tennessee Athletics


DateOpponentSiteSP+ spreadWin %“Youth bump” swing†
Aug 30SyracuseNeutral (ATL)UT by 16.183%—
Sep 6ETSU (FCS)Homen/a~98%*—
Sep 13GeorgiaHomeUGA by 2.345%—
Sep 20UABHomeUT by 36.398%—
Sep 27at Mississippi StAwayUT by 16.283%—
Oct 11ArkansasHomeUT by 12.276%+3%
Oct 18at AlabamaAwayBama by 8.631%+4%
Oct 25at KentuckyAwayUT by 10.473%+4%
Nov 1OklahomaHomeUT by 4.460%+4%
Nov 15New Mexico StHomeUT by 39.399%+0%
Nov 22at FloridaAwayUT by 0.752%+5%
Nov 29VanderbiltHomeUT by 18.186%+2%

*FCS teams don’t have SP+ ratings in this list; 95–99% is typical for a top-15 P5 vs. FCS at home.
†“Youth bump” assumes the WR/OL group adds **+2 SP+ points** to the offense starting mid-October (after the bye-ish gap before Oct 11). That nudges the listed games by the percentages shown.


What that adds up to​


  • Expected wins (12 games): ~8.8 (aligns with ESPN’s 8.9).
    • Distribution (rough, independent-game assumption): 7 wins ~11%, 8 wins ~23%, 9 wins ~29%, 10+ wins ~32%.
    • If the WR/OL do pop (+2 SP+ from mid-Oct), add ~0.2–0.3 wins to the expectation. ESPN.com
  • Swing games (biggest leverage):
    Georgia (H), @Alabama, Oklahoma (H), @Florida. A small offensive uptick (or QB play stabilizing) adds 3–5 percentage points to each of these, moving you from coin-flip territory to slight favorite in a couple. (WR notes: Matthews/Staley growth; Brazzell’s availability helps; OL cohesion remains the variable.) University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Quick read on identity (matches your note)​


  • Defense > Offense (again): SP+ has UT No. 4 on defense vs No. 33 on offense, echoing the last two seasons’ pattern and your point that Heupel’s D has out-paced the O lately. That makes early-season, field-position games (Syracuse, UGA) more manageable while the new QB/WR/OL mesh. ESPN.com
  • QB stability = the ceiling: If Aguilar wins the job and is efficient out of the gate, the October-November stretch is built for a run (Arkansas/OU/NMSU leading into @Florida). ESPN.comSI

Bottom line​


  • Most likely record: 9–3 (8 or 10 also very live).
  • Path to 10: hold serve at home, split UGA/OU, and grab one of @bama / @Florida—your WR/OL “youth breakout” is exactly the kind of mid-season lift that can swing those by a few points.

If you want, I can drop this into a printable one-pager and keep it updated week-to-week with fresh SP+ and any depth-chart news.
 
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#9
#9
T2P_Priceless said:
I answered yes, ChatGPT response...

love this prompt. here’s a straight-up, numbers-first Tennessee outlook that bakes in your “defense ahead of the offense, but lots of young WR/OL upside” note.


Where SP+ has Tennessee right now​


  • Team: No. 12 in preseason SP+ (overall rating +19.4).
    Offense: No. 33. Defense: No. 4. Avg projected wins: 8.9 vs the No. 24 SOS. ESPN.com
  • QB picture: signs point to Joey Aguilar (App State → UCLA → UT) leading a three-man battle with Jake Merklinger and 5-star George MacIntyre. Aguilar’s Tennessee move is reported by ESPN/Reuters, with local outlets noting he’s trending toward QB1. ESPN.comReutersAll for Tennessee
  • WR/OL youth: WR coach Kelsey Pope has been pumping up Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, while Chris Brazzell II is back practicing (limited). UT also says it’s a revamped OL after replacing four starters. That aligns with your “more talented yet unproven” read. University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Game-by-game win odds (SP+ based)​


Method: I used Connelly’s preseason SP+ rating for both teams, then applied a standard ~2.5-point home-field (0 for neutral). The SP+ rating gap maps to a win probability via a normal model (≈17-point SD)—a common back-of-the-envelope way to turn SP+ spreads into odds. (It’s an approximation, but it lines up well with SP+ projected wins.) ESPN.comX (formerly Twitter)Reddit


Schedule reference: official UT 2025 schedule (date/site). University of Tennessee Athletics


DateOpponentSiteSP+ spreadWin %“Youth bump” swing†
Aug 30SyracuseNeutral (ATL)UT by 16.183%—
Sep 6ETSU (FCS)Homen/a~98%*—
Sep 13GeorgiaHomeUGA by 2.345%—
Sep 20UABHomeUT by 36.398%—
Sep 27at Mississippi StAwayUT by 16.283%—
Oct 11ArkansasHomeUT by 12.276%+3%
Oct 18at AlabamaAwayBama by 8.631%+4%
Oct 25at KentuckyAwayUT by 10.473%+4%
Nov 1OklahomaHomeUT by 4.460%+4%
Nov 15New Mexico StHomeUT by 39.399%+0%
Nov 22at FloridaAwayUT by 0.752%+5%
Nov 29VanderbiltHomeUT by 18.186%+2%

*FCS teams don’t have SP+ ratings in this list; 95–99% is typical for a top-15 P5 vs. FCS at home.
†“Youth bump” assumes the WR/OL group adds **+2 SP+ points** to the offense starting mid-October (after the bye-ish gap before Oct 11). That nudges the listed games by the percentages shown.


What that adds up to​


  • Expected wins (12 games): ~8.8(aligns with ESPN’s 8.9).
    • Distribution (rough, independent-game assumption): 7 wins ~11%, 8 wins ~23%, 9 wins ~29%, 10+ wins ~32%.
    • If the WR/OL do pop (+2 SP+ from mid-Oct), add ~0.2–0.3 wins to the expectation. ESPN.com
  • Swing games (biggest leverage):
    Georgia (H), @Alabama, Oklahoma (H), @Florida. A small offensive uptick (or QB play stabilizing) adds 3–5 percentage points to each of these, moving you from coin-flip territory to slight favorite in a couple. (WR notes: Matthews/Staley growth; Brazzell’s availability helps; OL cohesion remains the variable.) University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Quick read on identity (matches your note)​


  • Defense > Offense (again): SP+ has UT No. 4 on defense vs No. 33 on offense, echoing the last two seasons’ pattern and your point that Heupel’s D has out-paced the O lately. That makes early-season, field-position games (Syracuse, UGA) more manageable while the new QB/WR/OL mesh. ESPN.com
  • QB stability = the ceiling: If Aguilar wins the job and is efficient out of the gate, the October-November stretch is built for a run (Arkansas/OU/NMSU leading into @Florida). ESPN.comSI

Bottom line​


  • Most likely record: 9–3 (8 or 10 also very live).
  • Path to 10: hold serve at home, split UGA/OU, and grab one of @bama / @Florida—your WR/OL “youth breakout” is exactly the kind of mid-season lift that can swing those by a few points.

If you want, I can drop this into a printable one-pager and keep it updated week-to-week with fresh SP+ and any depth-chart news.
Click to expand...
Thanks for taking the time and posting. AI can give a clean look with it's ability to compile numbers so easily and predict based off of them.

I'd say there is already an AI that can predict with high-accuracy. I wish I knew which one it is, we'd be making a few $s
 
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#19
#19
T2P_Priceless said:
I answered yes, ChatGPT response...

love this prompt. here’s a straight-up, numbers-first Tennessee outlook that bakes in your “defense ahead of the offense, but lots of young WR/OL upside” note.


Where SP+ has Tennessee right now​


  • Team: No. 12 in preseason SP+ (overall rating +19.4).
    Offense: No. 33. Defense: No. 4. Avg projected wins: 8.9 vs the No. 24 SOS. ESPN.com
  • QB picture: signs point to Joey Aguilar (App State → UCLA → UT) leading a three-man battle with Jake Merklinger and 5-star George MacIntyre. Aguilar’s Tennessee move is reported by ESPN/Reuters, with local outlets noting he’s trending toward QB1. ESPN.comReutersAll for Tennessee
  • WR/OL youth: WR coach Kelsey Pope has been pumping up Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, while Chris Brazzell II is back practicing (limited). UT also says it’s a revamped OL after replacing four starters. That aligns with your “more talented yet unproven” read. University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Game-by-game win odds (SP+ based)​


Method: I used Connelly’s preseason SP+ rating for both teams, then applied a standard ~2.5-point home-field (0 for neutral). The SP+ rating gap maps to a win probability via a normal model (≈17-point SD)—a common back-of-the-envelope way to turn SP+ spreads into odds. (It’s an approximation, but it lines up well with SP+ projected wins.) ESPN.comX (formerly Twitter)Reddit


Schedule reference: official UT 2025 schedule (date/site). University of Tennessee Athletics


DateOpponentSiteSP+ spreadWin %“Youth bump” swing†
Aug 30SyracuseNeutral (ATL)UT by 16.183%—
Sep 6ETSU (FCS)Homen/a~98%*—
Sep 13GeorgiaHomeUGA by 2.345%—
Sep 20UABHomeUT by 36.398%—
Sep 27at Mississippi StAwayUT by 16.283%—
Oct 11ArkansasHomeUT by 12.276%+3%
Oct 18at AlabamaAwayBama by 8.631%+4%
Oct 25at KentuckyAwayUT by 10.473%+4%
Nov 1OklahomaHomeUT by 4.460%+4%
Nov 15New Mexico StHomeUT by 39.399%+0%
Nov 22at FloridaAwayUT by 0.752%+5%
Nov 29VanderbiltHomeUT by 18.186%+2%

*FCS teams don’t have SP+ ratings in this list; 95–99% is typical for a top-15 P5 vs. FCS at home.
†“Youth bump” assumes the WR/OL group adds **+2 SP+ points** to the offense starting mid-October (after the bye-ish gap before Oct 11). That nudges the listed games by the percentages shown.


What that adds up to​


  • Expected wins (12 games): ~8.8(aligns with ESPN’s 8.9).
    • Distribution (rough, independent-game assumption): 7 wins ~11%, 8 wins ~23%, 9 wins ~29%, 10+ wins ~32%.
    • If the WR/OL do pop (+2 SP+ from mid-Oct), add ~0.2–0.3 wins to the expectation. ESPN.com
  • Swing games (biggest leverage):
    Georgia (H), @Alabama, Oklahoma (H), @Florida. A small offensive uptick (or QB play stabilizing) adds 3–5 percentage points to each of these, moving you from coin-flip territory to slight favorite in a couple. (WR notes: Matthews/Staley growth; Brazzell’s availability helps; OL cohesion remains the variable.) University of Tennessee Athletics+1Rocky Top Insider

Quick read on identity (matches your note)​


  • Defense > Offense (again): SP+ has UT No. 4 on defense vs No. 33 on offense, echoing the last two seasons’ pattern and your point that Heupel’s D has out-paced the O lately. That makes early-season, field-position games (Syracuse, UGA) more manageable while the new QB/WR/OL mesh. ESPN.com
  • QB stability = the ceiling: If Aguilar wins the job and is efficient out of the gate, the October-November stretch is built for a run (Arkansas/OU/NMSU leading into @Florida). ESPN.comSI

Bottom line​


  • Most likely record: 9–3 (8 or 10 also very live).
  • Path to 10: hold serve at home, split UGA/OU, and grab one of @bama / @Florida—your WR/OL “youth breakout” is exactly the kind of mid-season lift that can swing those by a few points.

If you want, I can drop this into a printable one-pager and keep it updated week-to-week with fresh SP+ and any depth-chart news.
Click to expand...

GPTChat's math is curious. It predicts that we win all of our regular season matchups with losses only to Bama and Dawgs, yet concludes:

"What that adds up to: Expected Wins: ~ 8.8"

Maybe I'm counting my toes wrong, but my by math that adds up to 10 wins.

Of all the things that AI *should* be able to do, simple addition would be the most obvious one yet... Fail.
 
Last edited:
#22
#22
All the negativity here. You don't like it , just move on.

You don't really have to post unless you are a narcissist and just like
to see yourself getting likes.
 
#23
#23
MontyPython said:
GPTChat's math is curious. It predicts that we win all of our regular season matchups with losses only to Bama and Dawgs, yet concludes:

"What that adds up to: Expected Wins: ~ 8.8"

Maybe I'm counting my toes wrong, but my by math that adds up to 10 wins.

Of all the things that AI *should* be able to do, simple addition would be the most obvious one yet... Fail.
Click to expand...
Cumulative win probability ?
 
#25
#25
MontyPython said:
GPTChat's math is curious. It predicts that we win all of our regular season matchups with losses only to Bama and Dawgs, yet concludes:

"What that adds up to: Expected Wins: ~ 8.8"

Maybe I'm counting my toes wrong, but my by math that adds up to 10 wins.

Of all the things that AI *should* be able to do, simple addition would be the most obvious one yet... Fail.
Click to expand...
That’s because you don’t understand statistics and probability
 
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